National poll: Obama/Romney deadlocked at 46% but Obama is favored in big states

[JEDI]

thus Obama will win EASILY w/325 electorial votes.

goes to show you that it's not the overall Nationwide votes you get, but the votes you get in the bigger electorial states.

thus why you see both guys spend 90% of their time in just ~5 battleground states

 

[buckshot24]

Thank you for this brilliant analysis.

 

[RampantAndroid]

...would you like a cookie for this brilliant input you have? How about you post a source while you're at it.

http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/331192/nate-silver-s-flawed-model-josh-jordan

 

[xBiffx]

Exactly what big states is Obama favored in that don't vote lock step Dem?

 

[sportage]

Kinda reminds me of... Bush / Kerry.
All those students turning out to carry Kerry over the finish line.
Whoops. Never happened..... Did it.

 

[RampantAndroid]

Kinda reminds me of... Bush / Kerry.
All those students turning out to carry Kerry over the finish line.
Whoops. Never happened..... Did it.

Not just that, the exit polls said Kerry won. The exit polls said Obama won by a massive landslide....except kerry didn't. And Obama didn't win by the prediction from the exit polls. And current polling is based on projections from previous years that already was oversampling dems.

Isn't it funny how SUDDENLY polls are showing that Obama's lead just up and vanished like a fart in the wind? How even Gallup is showing a massive lead? NBC a tie and Politico showing romney at +2? Given the article I posted above citing the oversampling, if true the polls aren't even showing Romney's real lead...

Also, wait a second...in 1980, wasn't Carter predicted to win the election going into October 1980? How'd that work out for good ol Jimmy?

 

[First]

lol wut?

 

[buckshot24]

Exactly what big states is Obama favored in that don't vote lock step Dem?

Caweephornia! Yeahah

 

[Screech]

I think it would be interesting to electorally neuter the swing state that decides an election repeatedly. ie, ohio, youre a great state and all, but enough time in the spotlight.......your electoral votes are now awarded proportionally for the next election.

Or something.....seems like its just the same few damn states....over and over.

 

[cybrsage]

I think all states should award the EC votes proportionally. It is a great compromise between the need to keep the EC to protect the small population states and the desire to have the popular vote decide things.

 

[abaez]

Who was the guy who kept parroting that Romney would win with 320 EV's the past few months?

 

[dmcowen674]

Currently Romney leads in Electoral vote but such a slim margin it could be a split decision.

If a tie, Congress gets to vote Romney as President and the Senate gets to vote Biden in as VP.

 

[dmcowen674]

Who was the guy who kept parroting that Romney would win with 320 EV's the past few months?

That was me until Obama lost Florida with that first debate disaster.

 

[RampantAndroid]

Currently Romney leads in Electoral vote but such a slim margin it could be a split decision.

If a tie, Congress gets to vote Romney as President and the Senate gets to vote Biden in as VP.

Uhhh. You're forgetting that a good number of states are currently not counter for either, and if you believe the over polling of dems, then even "leans obama" states might in fact be up for grabs. It's all in the air and I would not bet money on it going either way. I would however bet against the idea that no candidate will break 270.

I think it would be interesting to electorally neuter the swing state that decides an election repeatedly. ie, ohio, youre a great state and all, but enough time in the spotlight.......your electoral votes are now awarded proportionally for the next election.

Or something.....seems like its just the same few damn states....over and over.

You propose an amendment then. Until then, states which are more neutral (read, not voting down party lines) and still large will get plenty of attention.

 

[Doppel]

That was me until Obama lost Florida with that first debate disaster.

This must be one of the first times you admit one of your predictions is wrong, even though in truth virtually all of them are. You're growing. Almost brings a tear to my eye.

 

[Agent11]

Wait.. Obama had Florida? I thought only rabid conservatives and face eating zombies lived in Florida.

 

[randomrogue]

I don't understand this at all. Even in sports people don't talk out of their ass like this. If the last place team plays the first place team (not the greatest analogy I know) you don't talk shit like you're going to win. You talk shit about how much less you're going to lose by and how it's still going to be a great game.

Suddenly in Politics you wackjobs think Romney is going to win. There is nothing to support it. He's been losing for a while now (the whole time maybe?) and he's losing ground. That bump from the first debate was not enough. Sorry to say it but someone had to bring some reality into this.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ctions_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2012/ecalculator#?battleground

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/vote2012/map/calc.html#states=lrGSpRqGBlvGnqBlKp

http://rove.com/election

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

 

[dmcowen674]

I don't understand this at all.

Even in sports people don't talk out of their ass like this. If the last place team plays the first place team (not the greatest analogy I know) you don't talk shit like you're going to win. You talk shit about how much less you're going to lose by and how it's still going to be a great game.

Suddenly in Politics you wackjobs think Romney is going to win. There is nothing to support it. He's been losing for a while now (the whole time maybe?) and he's losing ground. That bump from the first debate was not enough. Sorry to say it but someone had to bring some reality into this.

I bolded where you went wrong.

It has nothing to do with the popular vote.

Obama could win the popular vote but still lose the election.

The only vote that matters is the electoral college and they are leaning Romney.

 

[randomrogue]

I bolded where you went wrong.

It has nothing to do with the popular vote.

Obama could win the popular vote but still lose the election.

The only vote that matters is the electoral college and they are leaning Romney.

Thank you captain obvious. Thus why I never mentioned the popular vote and linked to EC maps. Not a single EC map is leaning Romney and I don't think they ever have.

 

[RampantAndroid]

Thank you captain obvious. Thus why I never mentioned the popular vote and linked to EC maps. Not a single EC map is leaning Romney and I don't think they ever have.

The RCP map right now has no one winning. Your point is what? The "no toss ups" map is pointless right now. Especially given the link I already posted: http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/331192/nate-silver-s-flawed-model-josh-jordan

See sampling problem.s

 

[crashtestdummy]

Wait.. Obama had Florida? I thought only rabid conservatives and face eating zombies lived in Florida.

Old New York Jews also live there. The area are around Boca (where this last debate was) is basically a giant retirement colony.

 

[randomrogue]

The RCP map right now has no one winning. Your point is what? The "no toss ups" map is pointless right now. Especially given the link I already posted: http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/331192/nate-silver-s-flawed-model-josh-jordan

See sampling problem.s

Denial is not just a river in Egypt. The RCP shows Obama winning.

Given the fact that an incumbent president is stuck at 47 percent nationwide, the odds might not be in Obama’s favor, and they certainly aren’t in his favor by a 67–33 margin.

See this is why people keep making stupid arguments. He uses a Popular vote figure to try to discount the EC vote. That is not sound reasoning.

Makes sense though considering the National Review describes themselves as "America's most widely read and influential magazine and web site for conservative news, commentary, and opinion"

 

[crashtestdummy]

The RCP map right now has no one winning. Your point is what? The "no toss ups" map is pointless right now. Especially given the link I already posted: http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/331192/nate-silver-s-flawed-model-josh-jordan

See sampling problem.s

The simple reality is that it comes down to Ohio, Iowa, and Wisconsin. If Obama wins Ohio, Romney will have to win Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, and either Wisconsin or both Iowa and New Hampshire. All of those states are either toss ups or leaning Obama right now.

Romney big hope, then, is Ohio, where he is trailing by a point and where Obama has had his ground game set up for four years.

 

[RampantAndroid]

See this is why people keep making stupid arguments. He uses a Popular vote figure to try to discount the EC vote. That is not sound reasoning.

Makes sense though considering the National Review describes themselves as "America's most widely read and influential magazine and web site for conservative news, commentary, and opinion"

That whooshing sound. You hear it often, right?

Completely missed the point. The exit polls from 2008 and 2004 were off. BY A LOT. And yet they still use them as a model for the polling going on now, leading to an oversampling of dems. Which, if true, means that what we see in Ohio with Romney and Obama holding roughly even is actually Romney leading.

Furthermore, you failed to read the article. Here, I'll help you.

But look at some of the weights applied to the individual polls in Silver’s model. The most current Public Policy Polling survey, released Saturday, has Obama up only one point, 49–48. That poll is given a weighting under Silver’s model of .95201. The PPP poll taken last weekend had Obama up five, 51–46. This poll is a week older but has a weighting of 1.15569.

The NBC/Marist Ohio poll conducted twelve days ago has a higher weighting attached to it (1.31395) than eight of the nine polls taken since. The poll from twelve days ago also, coincidentally enough, is Obama’s best recent poll in Ohio, because of a Democratic party-identification advantage of eleven points. By contrast, the Rasmussen poll from eight days later, which has a larger sample size, more recent field dates, but has an even party-identification split between Democrats and Republicans, has a weighting of .88826, lower than any other poll taken in the last nine days.

 

[randomrogue]

I did read it. I've said before that it's going to be very interesting to see who's right and who's wrong come post election day.

One thing to keep in mind though is that sites like Rasumussan are one of the most inaccurate. So I wouldn't be surprised if they got weighed differently. I don't know the accuracy of PPP or NBC though. I'm also not sure what those weights really are. Are they based on sample size?

The one thing I don't do though is look at the facts as we have them now and ignore them completely. ALL sites have Obama winning the EC.