In the meantime, while its sometimes easy to forget during blog-discussions, the field of experimental quantum computing is a proper superset of D-Wave, and
things have gotten tremendously more exciting on many fronts within the last year or two. In particular, the group of John Martinis at Google (Martinis is one of the coauthors of the Google paper) now has superconducting qubits with
orders of magnitude better coherence times than D-Waves qubits, and has demonstrated rudimentary quantum error-correction on 9 of them. Theyre now talking about scaling up to ~40 super-high-quality qubits with controllable couplingsnot in the remote future, but in, like,
the next few years. If and when they achieve that, Im extremely optimistic that theyll be able to show a clear quantum advantage for
something (e.g., some BosonSampling-like sampling task), if not necessarily something of practical importance. IBM Yorktown Heights, which I visited last week, is also working (with
IARPA funding) on integrating superconducting qubits with many-microsecond coherence times. Meanwhile, some of the top ion-trap groups, like Chris Monroes at the University of Maryland, are talking similarly big about what they expect to be able to do soon. The academic approach to QCwhich one could summarize as understand the qubits, control them, keep them alive, and
only then try to scale them upis finally bearing some juicy fruit.
(At last weeks IBM conference, there was plenty of D-Wave discussion; how could there not be? But the physicists in attendanceI was almost the only computer scientist thereseemed much more interested in approaches that aim for longer-laster qubits, fault-tolerance, and a clear asymptotic speedup.)
I still have no idea when and if well have a practical, universal, fault-tolerant QC, capable of factoring 10,000-digit numbers and so on. But
its now looking like only a matter of years until Gil Kalai, and the other quantum computing skeptics, will be forced to admit they were wrongwhich was always the main application I cared about anyway!