My Serious, Logical thoughts about what will happen over the next four weeks.

[techs]

First off did anyone notice this bit of news today?

Gazprom Intends to Develop Huge Gas Field on Its Own
Gazprom, Russia?s natural gas monopoly, abruptly broke off talks Monday with five international companies bidding for a stake in an offshore field in Russia, canceling the largest energy deal involving foreigners expected here this year.
Gazprom?s chief executive, Aleksei B. Miller, said his company would wrest natural gas from the challenging field without foreign help ? though energy analysts were skeptical ? and retain full ownership of a gas deposit that is one of the world?s largest untapped sources of energy.


Here's what's going on.
Bush is trying to put together an embargo of N. Korea.
He needs Russia and China.
Russia will hold out for membership in the WTO.
China wants to keep the traitorous Congress that is encouraging job movement and eventual economic dominance of China.
So Bush will see, behind the scenes, if he can get Russia and China to go along in the UN.
Russia will agree after extracting every last bit of flesh from the US.
China will only agree if it can put limitations on the embargo like food and time.
Can Bush sell China on going along in hopes of keeping the Republican majority that has given China so much?
I sort of doubt it. Bush needs a serious embargo and just an Iraqi type embargo won't help the Republicans.

What I think is going on is Bush is negotiating a treaty like the now defunct SEATO treaty.
It will include Japan and other Asian nations worried about N. Korea.
Then Bush will blockade N. Korea and China and S. Korea will go along, except that they will still deal in "humanitarian" aid.

Bingo. Bush looks like a decisive leader who forged a consensus. Republicans get big boost.
Bingo. Russia gets less than they would have if they went along in the UN, but they still get some US concessions so they won't send their cargo ships up against the blockade.
Bingo. China gets to suck up to the N. Koreans by still trading with them. And China goes a long way in seeing the US Congress doesn't actually consider enforcing fair trade on them.
Bingo. Actual result of the embargo? Nothing. Unless your Karl Rove.

 

[IamDavid]

"Then Bush will blockade N. Korea and China and S. Korea will go along, except that they will still deal in "humanitarian" aid."

NK will not except this. They will look at it as an act of war at which time they will atteck Seoul.. China is already working on a plan to eliminate the NK government and do so causing the least amount of chaos with the people. China would be flooded with refugees if any militaryaction comes from anywhere but them. They have to deal with this themselves. And I beleive they will. Call me crazy but all the other alternatives are unacceptableto China..

 

[her209]

Originally posted by: IamDavid
NK will not except this. They will look at it as an act of war at which time they will atteck Seoul.. China is already working on a plan to eliminate the NK government and do so causing the least amount of chaos with the people. China would be flooded with refugees if any militaryaction comes from anywhere but them. They have to deal with this themselves. And I beleive they will. Call me crazy but all the other alternatives are unacceptableto China..

A joint Japan-China war?

 

[IamDavid]

Originally posted by: her209

Originally posted by: IamDavid
NK will not except this. They will look at it as an act of war at which time they will atteck Seoul.. China is already working on a plan to eliminate the NK government and do so causing the least amount of chaos with the people. China would be flooded with refugees if any militaryaction comes from anywhere but them. They have to deal with this themselves. And I beleive they will. Call me crazy but all the other alternatives are unacceptableto China..

A joint Japan-China war?

Doubtful.. They still don't trust each other enough. It would be nice though.

 

[techs]

Maybe I should have made it plainer that China will effectively just violate the embargo under the guise of everything being "humanitarian" aid.
Heck, in Iraq Saddam got Mercedes under Oil for Food.

 

[zephyrprime]

Originally posted by: IamDavid
NK will not except this. They will look at it as an act of war at which time they will atteck Seoul..

That's just empty bluffing from NK. They have everything to lose in an outright war if they start anything. They have a nukes and may even use them and although that would cause major loss of life, they still couldn't win the war that way.

 

[IamDavid]

Originally posted by: zephyrprime

Originally posted by: IamDavid
NK will not except this. They will look at it as an act of war at which time they will atteck Seoul..

That's just empty bluffing from NK. They have everything to lose in an outright war if they start anything. They have a nukes and may even use them and although that would cause major loss of life, they still couldn't win the war that way.

They are losing "everything" right now. Why do you think they keep uping the antee? First a missle test no one cared about. Now this. NK knows with winter fast aproaching and no real solution to feed and warm there people they are screwed. The NK leadership is so isolated they probably think they could win a war..

And the only ones bluffing was us.. We have NO options when dealing with NK.

 

[ayabe]

Originally posted by: IamDavid
"Then Bush will blockade N. Korea and China and S. Korea will go along, except that they will still deal in "humanitarian" aid."

NK will not except this. They will look at it as an act of war at which time they will atteck Seoul.. China is already working on a plan to eliminate the NK government and do so causing the least amount of chaos with the people. China would be flooded with refugees if any militaryaction comes from anywhere but them. They have to deal with this themselves. And I beleive they will. Call me crazy but all the other alternatives are unacceptableto China..

Links?

I am very doubtful that is going to happen.

 

[conehead433]

"Bush looks like a decisive leader who forged a consensus."

Bush will never appear to be a leader.

 

[daniel49]

Originally posted by: techs
Maybe I should have made it plainer that China will effectively just violate the embargo under the guise of everything being "humanitarian" aid.
Heck, in Iraq Saddam got Mercedes under Oil for Food.

thank kofi for that

 

[daniel49]

Originally posted by: ayabe

Originally posted by: IamDavid
"Then Bush will blockade N. Korea and China and S. Korea will go along, except that they will still deal in "humanitarian" aid."

NK will not except this. They will look at it as an act of war at which time they will atteck Seoul.. China is already working on a plan to eliminate the NK government and do so causing the least amount of chaos with the people. China would be flooded with refugees if any militaryaction comes from anywhere but them. They have to deal with this themselves. And I beleive they will. Call me crazy but all the other alternatives are unacceptableto China..

Links?

I am very doubtful that is going to happen.

I would be shocked as well...what we need to do is convince NK that Iran is his enemy and let them slug it out

 

[Lemon law]

I quite frankly don't understand the game N. Korea is playing----but GWB has been studiously asleep at the switch while N. Korea has been yelling we got nukes for years.
But GWB is going to discover that China holds all the aces in any United world standoff against N. Korea---and if GWB tries to push China around over N. Korea, he is going to look like a damn fool.---China has already ruled out the military options.

Which still won't prevent GWB from thumping his chest at home and saying me heap tough on terror---and the dems will scream asleep at the switch---and hopefully the international community will talk things out and get some strong santions against N. Korea---and Kim Jung LL will make his deal---which I assume will involve a stable source of food imports and foreign aid.

But I serious doubt GWB will take much of any real action until after the mid-term elections---but who knows---the ante just got upped in this nuclear weapons poker game.

 

[Balt]

Originally posted by: zephyrprime

Originally posted by: IamDavid
NK will not except this. They will look at it as an act of war at which time they will atteck Seoul..

That's just empty bluffing from NK. They have everything to lose in an outright war if they start anything. They have a nukes and may even use them and although that would cause major loss of life, they still couldn't win the war that way.

If they are blockaded they will have nothing left to lose. Strangling countries economically has historically been a good motivation for them to go to war (as well as the rise of radical elements within the country). Look at what happened to Germany after all of the limits and reparations that were placed on them after World War I. Eventually it contributed to the rise of fascism and World War II.

 

[blackangst1]

Originally posted by: Lemon law
I quite frankly don't understand the game N. Korea is playing----but GWB has been studiously asleep at the switch while N. Korea has been yelling we got nukes for years.
But GWB is going to discover that China holds all the aces in any United world standoff against N. Korea---and if GWB tries to push China around over N. Korea, he is going to look like a damn fool.---China has already ruled out the military options.

Which still won't prevent GWB from thumping his chest at home and saying me heap tough on terror---and the dems will scream asleep at the switch---and hopefully the international community will talk things out and get some strong santions against N. Korea---and Kim Jung LL will make his deal---which I assume will involve a stable source of food imports and foreign aid.

But I serious doubt GWB will take much of any real action until after the mid-term elections---but who knows---the ante just got upped in this nuclear weapons poker game.

Actually, China has increased troops along their border with NK...so I wouldnt necessarily say a military option is out of the question.

 

[EagleKeeper]

Originally posted by: blackangst1

Originally posted by: Lemon law
I quite frankly don't understand the game N. Korea is playing----but GWB has been studiously asleep at the switch while N. Korea has been yelling we got nukes for years.
But GWB is going to discover that China holds all the aces in any United world standoff against N. Korea---and if GWB tries to push China around over N. Korea, he is going to look like a damn fool.---China has already ruled out the military options.

Which still won't prevent GWB from thumping his chest at home and saying me heap tough on terror---and the dems will scream asleep at the switch---and hopefully the international community will talk things out and get some strong santions against N. Korea---and Kim Jung LL will make his deal---which I assume will involve a stable source of food imports and foreign aid.

But I serious doubt GWB will take much of any real action until after the mid-term elections---but who knows---the ante just got upped in this nuclear weapons poker game.

Actually, China has increased troops along their border with NK...so I wouldnt necessarily say a military option is out of the question.

Those troops are probably to prevent refugees from coming across.

China does not want Koreans to flood their northen inducstrial provinces.
they also do not want US forces on their doorstep after creating an United Korea.
(Korea would unite by pushing northwards, not southwards).

 

[ayabe]

Originally posted by: Balt

Originally posted by: zephyrprime

Originally posted by: IamDavid
NK will not except this. They will look at it as an act of war at which time they will atteck Seoul..

That's just empty bluffing from NK. They have everything to lose in an outright war if they start anything. They have a nukes and may even use them and although that would cause major loss of life, they still couldn't win the war that way.

If they are blockaded they will have nothing left to lose. Strangling countries economically has historically been a good motivation for them to go to war (as well as the rise of radical elements within the country). Look at what happened to Germany after all of the limits and reparations that were placed on them after World War I. Eventually it contributed to the rise of fascism and World War II.

Our oil embargo of Japan after their invasion of China is what led to Pearl Harbor.

 

[ntdz]

Originally posted by: ayabe

Originally posted by: Balt

Originally posted by: zephyrprime

Originally posted by: IamDavid
NK will not except this. They will look at it as an act of war at which time they will atteck Seoul..

That's just empty bluffing from NK. They have everything to lose in an outright war if they start anything. They have a nukes and may even use them and although that would cause major loss of life, they still couldn't win the war that way.

If they are blockaded they will have nothing left to lose. Strangling countries economically has historically been a good motivation for them to go to war (as well as the rise of radical elements within the country). Look at what happened to Germany after all of the limits and reparations that were placed on them after World War I. Eventually it contributed to the rise of fascism and World War II.

Our oil embargo of Japan after their invasion of China is what led to Pearl Harbor.

We cut the amount of steel we sent them significantly as well.

 

[GoPackGo]

China doesnt want a US or SK military option.

My guess is they could roll troops in anytime they wanted.

 

[ProfJohn]

I think the problem when ever we talk about North Korea is that they are totally crazy in the head.

We have no idea how they will react to any of this.

That has been the problem since the start, we are dealing with a mad man. We can give him everything he wants and he may still cheat on any deal. We just don't know.

One this we do KNOW is that we can not trust NK to keep any deal we make with them. Unless there are some serious verifications behind it.

Let's see how NK deals with China saying that they should suffer some consequences for this act.

 

[Pabster]

Originally posted by: Lemon law
I quite frankly don't understand the game N. Korea is playing----but GWB has been studiously asleep at the switch while N. Korea has been yelling we got nukes for years.

Those blinders you're wearing are awful dark.

Let's take a look at Clinton's 1994 "Deal" and see where the problems began.

 

[techs]

Originally posted by: Pabster

Originally posted by: Lemon law
I quite frankly don't understand the game N. Korea is playing----but GWB has been studiously asleep at the switch while N. Korea has been yelling we got nukes for years.

Those blinders you're wearing are awful dark.

Let's take a look at Clinton's 1994 "Deal" and see where the problems began.

Yeah. It didn't work as well as Bush Sr's plan to sit by and let N. Korea make 6-8 nukes.
Oh wait, they didn't make any on Clintons watch.

 

[BaliBabyDoc]

One of the early posters may have been listening to NPR . . . or read the Atlantic Monthly.

Some 'expert' said China is reasonably satisfied with the status quo and definitely does not want anything significant to happen that might disrupt the 2008 Olympics. You have to remember 'image' is important and its hard to put your best foot forwards when hundreds of thousands of starving people are streaming into the country.

This guy noted that the Chinese government has been 'training' a cohort of North Koreans and then sending them back south to create a buffer zone of sorts between the mainland China and the most desperate areas of North Korea. In essence, creating a mico-China circa early90s. I believe the author called in 'mini-Tibet.' I assume this is occuring under the auspices of economic development to keep Li' Kim from getting too suspicious.

But contrary to popular (neocon) belief, Lil' Kim is neither stupid nor crazy. He can see the writing on the wall. Basically, realizing the DPRK exists at the whims of Beijing . . . they need a friend . . . or at the very least someone to give the regime global standing. Enter the USA. The theory goes that Lil' Kim wants bilateral talks NOT for the purpose of extracting economic incentives (that's already coming from China and South Korea), but for prominence. The truth is that if the regime collapsed tomorrow . . . nobody would care except for China and South Korea . . . but their concerns have almost nothing to do with Kim's well-being.

The 6-party talks are essentially guaranteed to generate little change over time . . . at best gradual change . . . in part b/c almost every member has a specific (yet different) agenda. To the contrary, bilateral talks between the DPRK could generate anything for nothing to a historic breakthrough.

There's an intriguing logic to this guy's theory. It's one of the best explanations I've heard for the behavior of the DPRK and China.

 

[ProfJohn]

I think the thinking on why lil Kim wants unilateral talks is that he wants to be viewed in the eyes of the world as being equal to the US. One thing is certain if we did engage in one on one talks he would take that to his people as an example of his great leadership ability and use it to fool his totally blind population into maybe thinking N Korea is just like the rest of the world.

Second, why should we be engaged in unilateral talks with North Korea in the first place? They are a threat to China, Japan and South Korea. Not us, as of yet, at least not directly. North Korea doesn?t want six way talks because they know they won?t get what they want.
It seems that lil Kim is paranoid that we are planning to attack and is looking for assurances that we will not do so. By showing the world he has Nukes I think he hopes that will stop any US planned invasion. This is all about Kim and him keeping his power. Very sad for the poor people of N Korea who are starving to death.

To steal a quote from history: Lil Kim delenda est.