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Moscow Mitch, Leningrad Lindsey and I’ll frown at you are all in trouble

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Greenman

Lifer
Oct 15, 1999
16,493
2,074
126
Everyone understands what the electoral college is. LOL at the president representing all 50 states. How can you say something so retarded in 2020?
Has the constitution been changed? If not, then Trump really does represent all fifty states. Even the ones he wants to see burned.
 
Feb 4, 2009
27,474
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I just answered that, it's because the states elect the president. You keep returning to a point that doesn't exist. The US isn't a simple democracy, it's a constitutional republic. We don't have any federal citizens, everyone is in a state, the district of Columbia, or a territory.
So clearing for me. Why is a farmer in Ohio more qualified to decide whom is President than your vote & my vote combined (assuming we vote for the same dude)
Do you really think the majority of Americans think of it like that?
 

Jhhnn

No Lifer
Nov 11, 1999
60,803
12,736
136
That seems obvious, almost inevitable, and if I was a betting man I'd lay long odds against Trump. But it ain't November yet.
True. I figure it'll just get worse for Trump in the meanwhile. Rona ain't nearly done with us. Huh-uhh. Watch what happens where they send the kids back to school. We're just at the beginning of the economic misery, too. It's shaping up as Great Depression 2.0.
 
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Jhhnn

No Lifer
Nov 11, 1999
60,803
12,736
136
I just answered that, it's because the states elect the president. You keep returning to a point that doesn't exist. The US isn't a simple democracy, it's a constitutional republic. We don't have any federal citizens, everyone is in a state, the district of Columbia, or a territory.
True. OTOH, it's important to acknowledge that the EC & the popular vote gave the same outcome between 1888 & 2000. When the EC gives a different result, that's an anomaly, an unintended consequence.
 
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eelw

Diamond Member
Dec 4, 1999
5,255
359
126
Hillary was estimated to win 300 EC before Election Day. Biden is currently sitting on 350 EC. So yeah 2016 all over again.
 

Paratus

Lifer
Jun 4, 2004
14,267
6,911
146
[
That's because you keep thinking people, and that's incorrect. Think states. The states elect the president. This concept is so simple it blows my mind how few get it. No one squawks about each state having two senators, why is that? Shouldn't California have a couple dozen? It all comes back to the US being a republic, fifty separate states joined as a union. The president is supposed to represent all fifty states, dump the EC and no one would even bother campaigning in forty of them. They simply wouldn't count.
Im going to disagree with you here. I think it’s you who doesn’t understand what the issue is.

Fine you want to say it’s the states that elect the president through the electoral college. The manner in which that occurs is through the states ability to appoint their electors. Virtually all states base their choice of electors on popular vote.

The real issue we are discussing is the handicap the EC apportions electors to certain states over others. Those extra electors were required to make the 3/5ths compromise work to make the north and south roughly equal by counting slaves but giving their vote to the white majority.

We no longer have slavery. We no longer need to give rural states extra electors.

Reapportion the electors or get rid of the extra 2 electors every state gets that puts the thumb on the scale for low population states for no good reason.

Let the states still select their electors as they see fit that way you can maintain your “states get to the elect the president” but the votes between states become a hell of a lot more equal.
 

tweaker2

Lifer
Aug 5, 2000
11,381
2,622
136
So long as the Repubs keep their constituency in a state of manic fear and spiteful hate of those "commie socialists and baby killers" and those folks who perform "sinful same sex marriages" among other "vile acts against God's will" while giving implied endorsement of their racists and religious zealots they'll have a loyal following they can rely on. All they have to do then is to make wild hollow promises like Trump does in the area of jobs jobs jobs, replace Obamacare with a spectacular affordable health care plan and family values and fiscal conservancy, etc etc.

I mean, it's all worked before and it should work again even with Trump proving how it was all simply bullshit slinging and not at the Dems but at their own people of whom only need to keep hearing that same crap over and over again to feel safe and secure.
 
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nickqt

Diamond Member
Jan 15, 2015
5,803
3,728
136
That's because you keep thinking people, and that's incorrect. Think states. The states elect the president. This concept is so simple it blows my mind how few get it. No one squawks about each state having two senators, why is that? Shouldn't California have a couple dozen? It all comes back to the US being a republic, fifty separate states joined as a union. The president is supposed to represent all fifty states, dump the EC and no one would even bother campaigning in forty of them. They simply wouldn't count.
This is entirely incorrect.

As-is, the only states either Presidential candidate campaigns in are "swing states" because almost all states are winner-take-all and Biden spending money/campaigning in Oklahoma is absolutely 100% pointless. Trump spending money or campaigning in California is absolutely 100% pointless. That's because of the Electoral College.

If the popular vote were operational for the President, there'd actually be a reason for Trump to campaign in California, and Biden to campaign in Oklahoma. Pulling in a few thousand more votes in either state for either campaign actually matters.

Also, a Republic is any government that doesn't have a monarch in charge. A constitutional Republic is any government that has an operating constitution and doesn't have a monarch in charge.

And yes, there is "Federal" citizenship. You are a US Citizen first and foremost. If you don't believe me, go get yourself a Passport issued by whatever state you live in. Post a pic here, I'd love to see it.
 

Grey_Beard

Golden Member
Sep 23, 2014
1,253
1,276
136
August 2016 says hello!

Okay you found one with that difference. Here are all the polls for that span.


There are a smattering of polls that see Clinton up by the high single digits and even 10 or 12 points. They are not the norm. You can take whatever position you want with this, but this reminds me of ‘92. People thought I was crazy when I said after the first Democratic primary Clinton was going to win not only the nomination but the Presidency. What told me that? To be dredged for that Paul Jones thing and to show have any showing in Iowa was big. He the. rebound to second in Mass. Iowa showed he was not dead and it steam rolled from there. I think this is similar. A person who did badly in the beginning, then he takes off. Biden was nowhere until SC, but he was in the running. He is also against an incumbent who got worse as the election got closer.

I bet you can find a few more polls that help your pessimism, but like most things, it’s about how you pace yourself. I am concerned, but I don’t wear it on my sleeve. Biden has the ability and political savvy to run this thing out.
 
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Grey_Beard

Golden Member
Sep 23, 2014
1,253
1,276
136
Only three states counted in 2016.
Only if you look at the differences. 70,000 votes between them. In 2000 everyone said Florida was the difference. It was TN. A senator that represented TN could not carry TN in his run for the Presidency. That was the difference, not the hanging chads.
 

nickqt

Diamond Member
Jan 15, 2015
5,803
3,728
136
Only if you look at the differences. 70,000 votes between them. In 2000 everyone said Florida was the difference. It was TN. A senator that represented TN could not carry TN in his run for the Presidency. That was the difference, not the hanging chads.
I think it's a fair argument that between SCOTUS stopping the recount, and the ballot design giving an avowed anti-Semite thousands of votes from people who also voted for the Democratic Senate candidate made Florida pretty pivotal in the 2000 election. You can throw the Brooks Brother Riot and the Republican Presidential Candidate's Brother running the state in for good measure. What a fucking shitshow that was, and led to from 2001-2009.

Also, if we're just talking about EC votes, you could apply the same argument about TN to New Hampshire. Had the good people of NH voted slightly different, Gore would have won.
 
Feb 4, 2009
27,474
7,959
136
Okay you found one with that difference. Here are all the polls for that span.


There are a smattering of polls that see Clinton up by the high single digits and even 10 or 12 points. They are not the norm. You can take whatever position you want with this, but this reminds me of ‘92. People thought I was crazy when I said after the first Democratic primary Clinton was going to win not only the nomination but the Presidency. What told me that? To be dredged for that Paul Jones thing and to show have any showing in Iowa was big. He the. rebound to second in Mass. Iowa showed he was not dead and it steam rolled from there. I think this is similar. A person who did badly in the beginning, then he takes off. Biden was nowhere until SC, but he was in the running. He is also against an incumbent who got worse as the election got closer.

I bet you can find a few more polls that help your pessimism, but like most things, it’s about how you pace yourself. I am concerned, but I don’t wear it on my sleeve. Biden has the ability and political savvy to run this thing out.
There were similar comparisons for July and June.
I’m simp,y saying there is a long road ahead and a lot can happen. Plus I just don’t trust polls since 2016. Something has changed that seems to make polling less relevant, I’m not sure what it is.
 

Grey_Beard

Golden Member
Sep 23, 2014
1,253
1,276
136
I think it's a fair argument that between SCOTUS stopping the recount, and the ballot design giving an avowed anti-Semite thousands of votes from people who also voted for the Democratic Senate candidate made Florida pretty pivotal in the 2000 election. You can throw the Brooks Brother Riot and the Republican Presidential Candidate's Brother running the state in for good measure. What a fucking shitshow that was, and led to from 2001-2009.

Also, if we're just talking about EC votes, you could apply the same argument about TN to New Hampshire. Had the good people of NH voted slightly different, Gore would have won.
He was not a Senator from NH. His father was a politician in TN. It amazes me to this day. If the 11 EC points or votes (whatever terminology used) for TN went to Gore, Florida and NH does not matter. The fake riot is useless since the events at Miami-Dade County election canvassers is moot. It’s like Indiana not voting for a ticket that the Vampire of the West Wing is on.
 

nickqt

Diamond Member
Jan 15, 2015
5,803
3,728
136
He was not a Senator from NH. His father was a politician in TN. It amazes me to this day. If the 11 EC points or votes (whatever terminology used) for TN went to Gore, Florida and NH does not matter. The fake riot is useless since the events at Miami-Dade County election canvassers is moot. It’s like Indiana not voting for a ticket that the Vampire of the West Wing is on.
I wasn't aware that Republicans had to vote for a candidate because the candidate was from their home state.
 

Grey_Beard

Golden Member
Sep 23, 2014
1,253
1,276
136
I wasn't aware that Republicans had to vote for a candidate because the candidate was from their home state.
That is a very humorous response. I understand the point, though. His father, Al Sr, was a Senator for 18 years for TN. Junior was a Senator for 8 years and a Rep in the House for 8 years before that. Basically from 1951 until 2001 (except for a span of 6 years 1971-1977, after his father’s loss and his win for the House, which means 43 years total) a Gore represented TN in some form in Washington. Regardless of how Republicons vote, I cannot find another candidate who ran for President that lost their home state, especially one that their father and they served for that amount of time. Even in lopsided elections, candidates won their home state. All I am saying is that this is unusual. Much more so than the other anomalies found in hindsight. Yes, TN is a Republicon shill, I get that. Florida was the most dramatic example which was a razor thin margin, I think approximately 500 votes, but TN swung that election in my opinion.
 

Stokely

Senior member
Jun 5, 2017
781
596
106
I think there is reason for optimism, for reasons stated.

I doubt there has EVER been a more hated and maligned (fairly or not) candidate than Hillary. The Clintons have been the boogeymen for decades. Personally I think her speaking tone and arrogance (just my opinion) didn't help her at all.

I do think Trump got a lot of dipshits voting for him saying things like "hey, he's a businessman, he can shake things up." I heard that a bunch in 2016--sounds utterly insane based on Trump's history and the fact that being a NYC shyster real estate fraud has SHIT ALL to do with running a country, but I heard it a bunch.

3rd party siphoned a lot away, I knew a few Bernie voters in particular that voted Johnson out of anger. I don't get that same feeling this time, and I hope the Green Party goes and ties themselves to trees this election, the wankers (way to help the one party get in that actively wants to DESTROY the environment...)

His fault or not--and I think he's done NOTHING productive during this crisis--the virus is going to hurt Trump. I think it would have hurt anyone but hopefully people can see his lack of leadership during all this. Or at least some mushy middle people in key states can see it.

The virus has helped Biden stay on the down-low, which is good, because he comes across to me as feeble and a shell of himself. Plus he puts his foot in it. The less he is visible, the better. Please note that I don't think that makes him a bad president,I WANT the president to be a figurehead whose main job is to smile and wave and hire competent people for various roles. I think it is literally impossible to hire WORSE people than Trump has, unless you went to a mental ward or federal prisons to pick administrators and even then I'd have to look at their histories.

----

but yeah, all that said--I'll believe Trump is gone when he's gone. He'll be pulling out vote suppression like there is no tomorrow, because for him there isn't. Russia and other players will do what they can. Ace in the hole--a vaccine announcement right before the election (this has already started).
 

uclaLabrat

Diamond Member
Aug 2, 2007
4,252
368
126
"Safe" is a relative term when hes in the minority. Also looks like leningrad Lindsay is in legit trouble, and that's not nothing.

I still think mitch being up by 5 isn't exactly "safe" territory, especially with so many unknowns in this environment.
 

Greenman

Lifer
Oct 15, 1999
16,493
2,074
126
True. OTOH, it's important to acknowledge that the EC & the popular vote gave the same outcome between 1888 & 2000. When the EC gives a different result, that's an anomaly, an unintended consequence.
That's incorrect. It's not an unintended consequence as that's how the system was designed. Everyone knew it was a possible outcome since the day it was written down. What we're seeing in recent elections is greater political polarization, not a failure of the system.
 

Greenman

Lifer
Oct 15, 1999
16,493
2,074
126
Only three states counted in 2016.
If California had gone red would that have changed the outcome? What if Texas went blue, you think that would have made a difference? By your logic we can say that any state with enough EC votes to change the election is the only one that mattered. You can chop the numbers any way you want, but the bottom line is the EC worked exactly as it was intended to.
 

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