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Paratus

Lifer
Jun 4, 2004
14,368
7,149
146
Having your business fail for lack of patrons is an entirely different matter than being forced to close down through government action. In this case there is someone responsible. Those people can all point to someone or some group and say "they put me out of business".
If your opinion that there will be no customers is correct, then allowing them to open is a no brainer, if no one walks in the store, then no one is at risk of getting sick. If they do get customers, even with 60% drop in revenue, it may be enough for them to survive.
We were told this was all about flattening the curve, about keeping hospitals from being overwhelmed, we've done that in most of the country. Now the narrative has changed to "when it's safe". That wasn't what was presented to the american people. Anyone who doesn't feel safe is free to stay home, no one wants to force them back to work. But all those people who took the hit to make it happen have met their obligation, and are pissed off now that the deal has been changed. I wholeheartedly support them.
The issue is not a binary one. Removing restrictions will increase economic activity. It will also increase infection rate. The difference is most businesses see a linear increase in revenue from an increase in customers while infection rates are exponential. So a small increase in customer interactions is a small increase in revenue but a potentially large increase in infections. So your assertion that some businesses can withstand 60% not withstanding (the average net margin for most small business is 7%) we would need over 90% of normal economic activity to save most of these businesses. If we can’t reach that level (and we won’t even without restrictions) why should we increase the number of infections by trying?

While yes you were told we were flattening they curve and many parts of the country have we’ve also been told we have to protect against the a second wave. That protection was in part to come from robust testing and infection tracking until a treatment or vaccine was available. Most states are still woefully unprepared for this.

The reason for the unpreparedness is a large minority of the country hasn’t wanted state and federal governments to be prepared or responsible for an event like this. So they are getting the response they deserve. Which is again why their anger is misplaced.
 

Greenman

Lifer
Oct 15, 1999
16,655
2,168
126
Well, the employer just says show up or your fired. That's not what I call free. You like it, I don't.
That's as free as it gets my friend. Is the employer supposed to put his business on hold until the last employee decides it's safe?
Commerce drives the world, without it, we're hunter gatherers. When commerce ends, life as we know it ends. That's the simple reality of twenty first centenary life. There is no like or dislike about it, it's the world we have, the universe we live in. All the people that keep the wheels turning have to go to work, they don't have a choice. Tell me why they're expendable and others aren't?
 

woolfe9998

Lifer
Apr 8, 2013
11,835
6,294
136
Gawd. Manaus Brazil is currently a hotspot. It's 3 degrees off the equator, nice & warm there year round-


This shit is extremely contagious & spreads like wildfire in a windstorm but we're going to brave it out, apparently.
You might want to check where Sao Paulo is on the same map. Because that is their biggest hotspot. And think about how it might spread from south to north within the same country. Warmer weather doesn't make a pathogen go away. It slows transmission. If you have a massive outbreak in the cold part of a country, not all the warmer parts are going to be immune. It's going to depend on things like travel patterns within the country.

You might also want to look into why virtually every single country in the northern hemisphere is showing a decline right now. Why might that be, when they are in varying stages of lockdowns, no lockdown ever, partially ended lockdown, totally ended lockdown. Deaths are going down virtually everywhere regardless of policies. Even Sweden is showing some decline and they never locked down at all.

If you guys want to keep predicting a massive cataclysm when these lockdowns end, one we've so far seen no evidence of in spite of being well into reopening things, go ahead. Trump and his deplorables are going to have shit eatings grins on their faces.
 

Jhhnn

No Lifer
Nov 11, 1999
61,131
13,071
136
Having your business fail for lack of patrons is an entirely different matter than being forced to close down through government action. In this case there is someone responsible. Those people can all point to someone or some group and say "they put me out of business".
If your opinion that there will be no customers is correct, then allowing them to open is a no brainer, if no one walks in the store, then no one is at risk of getting sick. If they do get customers, even with 60% drop in revenue, it may be enough for them to survive.
We were told this was all about flattening the curve, about keeping hospitals from being overwhelmed, we've done that in most of the country. Now the narrative has changed to "when it's safe". That wasn't what was presented to the american people. Anyone who doesn't feel safe is free to stay home, no one wants to force them back to work. But all those people who took the hit to make it happen have met their obligation, and are pissed off now that the deal has been changed. I wholeheartedly support them.
Bullshit. The deal all along has been to hold the infection rate below what the healthcare system can handle. We've reinforced that, no doubt, but it remains to be seen if that's enough to deal with the consequences of reopening. We're too unimaginative to do it any other way, apparently. Meanwhile, the Chinese swabbed 9M people & tested 6.5M in 10 days in Wuhan-


They acted on the basis of 6 confirmed cases. Meanwhile, Americans are getting a big dose of sunshine pumped up the old skirt. We don't have the means to do anything like that. Not a fucking prayer. We'd need national leadership that we simply don't have.
 

Greenman

Lifer
Oct 15, 1999
16,655
2,168
126
The issue is not a binary one. Removing restrictions will increase economic activity. It will also increase infection rate. The difference is most businesses see a linear increase in revenue from an increase in customers while infection rates are exponential. So a small increase in customer interactions is a small increase in revenue but a potentially large increase in infections. So your assertion that some businesses can withstand 60% not withstanding (the average net margin for most small business is 7%) we would need over 90% of normal economic activity to save most of these businesses. If we can’t reach that level (and we won’t even without restrictions) why should we increase the number of infections by trying?

While yes you were told we were flattening they curve and many parts of the country have we’ve also been told we have to protect against the a second wave. That protection was in part to come from robust testing and infection tracking until a treatment or vaccine was available. Most states are still woefully unprepared for this.

The reason for the unpreparedness is a large minority of the country hasn’t wanted state and federal governments to be prepared or responsible for an event like this. So they are getting the response they deserve. Which is again why their anger is misplaced.
Speculation. We don't know which businesses will fail or how rapidly the economy will recover. What we do know is that none of them can if they aren't allowed to.
This issue always breaks on those who collect a check to stay home, and those who don't. When the bonus unemployment money runs out, and all the folks that collect a regular check for staying home stop getting them, you'll hear "open it up" shouted from the roof tops.
 

mindless1

Diamond Member
Aug 11, 2001
5,503
486
126
Re-read your quote, re-read my response, give it another try?
Your inability to communicate and then imply something is missing, is entirely on you.

Do give it another try. Go back to school, study english composition, practice, and then look back at your posts and see where you're going wrong. I mean besides attempting to troll and failing at it.
 

Jhhnn

No Lifer
Nov 11, 1999
61,131
13,071
136
You might want to check where Sao Paulo is on the same map. Because that is their biggest hotspot. And think about how it might spread from south to north within the same country. Warmer weather doesn't make a pathogen go away. It slows transmission. If you have a massive outbreak in the cold part of a country, not all the warmer parts are going to be immune. It's going to depend on things like travel patterns within the country.

You might also want to look into why virtually every single country in the northern hemisphere is showing a decline right now. Why might that be, when they are in varying stages of lockdowns, no lockdown ever, partially ended lockdown, totally ended lockdown. Deaths are going down virtually everywhere regardless of policies. Even Sweden is showing some decline and they never locked down at all.

If you guys want to keep predicting a massive cataclysm when these lockdowns end, one we've so far seen no evidence of in spite of being well into reopening things, go ahead. Trump and his deplorables are going to have shit eatings grins on their faces.
Oh, please. If warm weather reduces R0 from 3 to 2 it'll still go hog fucking wild w/o restrictions on personal behavior. Even Sweden has engaged in a variety of restrictions all along. We're not well into anything at this point, other than the virus spreading into lesser traveled regions of America where it hadn't been before. It's only been a couple of weeks that states have opened up much at all. If we're not in deep shit by the Fourth of July I'll concede to having been alarmist.
 

Jhhnn

No Lifer
Nov 11, 1999
61,131
13,071
136
Speculation. We don't know which businesses will fail or how rapidly the economy will recover. What we do know is that none of them can if they aren't allowed to.
This issue always breaks on those who collect a check to stay home, and those who don't. When the bonus unemployment money runs out, and all the folks that collect a regular check for staying home stop getting them, you'll hear "open it up" shouted from the roof tops.
That won't be retirees, normally a strong GOP constituency. Can't win w/o them in most places. They've found Trump's response to covid-19 utterly lacking. I think events yet to come will erode their confidence even further. His effort to deny them absentee voting is also a blunder of colossal proportions.
 

Paratus

Lifer
Jun 4, 2004
14,368
7,149
146
Speculation. We don't know which businesses will fail or how rapidly the economy will recover. What we do know is that none of them can if they aren't allowed to.
This issue always breaks on those who collect a check to stay home, and those who don't. When the bonus unemployment money runs out, and all the folks that collect a regular check for staying home stop getting them, you'll hear "open it up" shouted from the roof tops.
Did the country suddenly run out of bootstraps? Businesses can be rebuilt 100,000 Americans and counting cannot.

If you want to get back to work push the federal and state governments to provide accurate counts, robust testing, and comprehensive contact tracing ASAP so we can open up responsibly and with the public confidence that they or their family are not going to die because they wanted to get a hair cut.
 

woolfe9998

Lifer
Apr 8, 2013
11,835
6,294
136
Oh, please. If warm weather reduces R0 from 3 to 2 it'll still go hog fucking wild w/o restrictions on personal behavior. Even Sweden has engaged in a variety of restrictions all along. We're not well into anything at this point, other than the virus spreading into lesser traveled regions of America where it hadn't been before. It's only been a couple of weeks that states have opened up much at all. If we're not in deep shit by the Fourth of July I'll concede to having been alarmist.
7/4? OK then.
 

mikeymikec

Lifer
May 19, 2011
14,116
4,158
136
Your inability to communicate and then imply something is missing, is entirely on you.

Do give it another try. Go back to school, study english composition, practice, and then look back at your posts and see where you're going wrong. I mean besides attempting to troll and failing at it.
I thought I had made quite a simple request, but you didn't understand it. I'll try again.

Your quote I responded to:
1) I'd be happy if a militia group overthrew an oppressive government. I'm not suggesting this is the right time to do it, but when is it the right time?
Summarising your point here:
---
I'd be happy for X to happen. I don't think now is the right time for X to happen. When would I be happy for X to happen?
---
It's virtually a content-free statement, since you made little to no effort to substantiate it with even one potential scenario in which you'd be happy for X to happen, hence I said maybe you should have thought about this point a little more before making it.

Digging a little deeper:

You'd be happy for a militia group to overthrow an oppressive government? By whose definition would it be an oppressive government? Or did you limit your opinion to some comic-book-villain government that is out to kill literally everyone?

If a bunch of radical <insert religion here> followers decided the government of your country was oppressive and overthrew it so they could impose their extremist and out-dated views upon everyone, would you be happy with them doing so? How about a bunch of neo-nazis? Eco-warriors? Vegans? Apocalypse enthusiasts? A drug cartel?

Also, in case it needs pointing out, the people who have overthrown the government would then impose their interests and ideals upon the populace, and the kind of people who overthrow a government are going to be extremists in at least one sense. Furthermore, they'll be able to scrap the entire basis of law for your country and re-write it with their interests in mind, and without any limits on their behaviour, it would seem likely that the expression "absolute power corrupts absolutely" will become very relevant.

So now I've given you some material to flesh out your original point with, do you want to have another crack at it?
 
Last edited:

shortylickens

No Lifer
Jul 15, 2003
76,577
9,703
126
Their anger is misplaced. Even with states opening up customers aren’t flocking back to consume as they were before the pandemic.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/more-people-are-dining-out-as-states-reopen-but-dont-expect-more-activity-until-theres-a-coronavirus-vaccine-data-suggests-2020-05-27


It doesn’t matter how much they protest and threaten and demand they be allowed to work the customers aren’t coming back in many industries until there’s proof the pandemic is under control, there’s a vaccine, or the government forces them at gunpoint to patronize businesses.
In my area I no longer see tons of people wearing masks and gloves. I dont know what happened, but all of a sudden it seemed like last monday the vast majority of people decided to just stop being safe. It worries me.
Most of the businesses still arent open and no public official has claimed its OK to stop wearing protection. Dunno where they got the idea we're back to normal on this.
 

ch33zw1z

Lifer
Nov 4, 2004
30,936
9,718
146
In my area I no longer see tons of people wearing masks and gloves. I dont know what happened, but all of a sudden it seemed like last monday the vast majority of people decided to just stop being safe. It worries me.
Most of the businesses still arent open and no public official has claimed its OK to stop wearing protection. Dunno where they got the idea we're back to normal on this.
#disgunabegud
 

HomerJS

Lifer
Feb 6, 2002
25,080
9,946
136
Speculation. We don't know which businesses will fail or how rapidly the economy will recover. What we do know is that none of them can if they aren't allowed to.
This issue always breaks on those who collect a check to stay home, and those who don't. When the bonus unemployment money runs out, and all the folks that collect a regular check for staying home stop getting them, you'll hear "open it up" shouted from the roof tops.
Why aren't those gun toting knuckledraggers protesting the lack of testing, tracing and PPE that would make it safe to go back to work?

Maybe alternate agenda?
 

Homerboy

Lifer
Mar 1, 2000
28,922
2,631
126
I'm a little confused as to who exactly you would kill to get a state re-opened.
Pretty sure just killing off the governor isn't going to accomplish your goal, so what's the game plan there?
 
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