More on the bird flu

[astrosfan90]

Not that this is particularly surprising.

Text

If pandemic influenza hits in the next year or so, the few weapons the United States has to keep it from spreading will do little, a new computer model shows.

A pandemic flu is likely to strike one in three people if nothing is done, according to the results of computer simulation published in Thursday's journal Nature. If the government acts fast enough and has enough antiviral medicine to use as preventive dosings ? which the United States does not ? that could drop to about 28 percent of the population getting sick, the study found.

 

[Meuge]

Originally posted by: astrosfan90
Not that this is particularly surprising.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,193239,00.html">Text</a>

If pandemic influenza hits in the next year or so, the few weapons the United States has to keep it from spreading will do little, a new computer model shows.

A pandemic flu is likely to strike one in three people if nothing is done, according to the results of computer simulation published in Thursday's journal Nature. If the government acts fast enough and has enough antiviral medicine to use as preventive dosings ? which the United States does not ? that could drop to about 28 percent of the population getting sick, the study found.

Doesn't matter. It's unlikely to become transmissible among people in its current form, and it will likely undergo recombination before it does so, which (as has always happened before) will weaken its lethal potential, rendering it a dangerous flu, but not the Level 4+ material it is now.

 

[OrByte]

unlikely to be a problem anyways...

damn someone beat me to it.

But I LOVE how Dateline, the Today show, 60 Minutes, yadda yadda just loves to try to scare every Tom, Dick, and Harry into believing that 50 million people world wide are going to die from the Bird Flu next week...

...whatever.

*cough* SARS *cough*
*cough WEST NILE *cough*

 

[lozina]

Gearing up the weapons of mass distraction again...

 

[Meuge]

Originally posted by: OrByte
unlikely to be a problem anyways...

damn someone beat me to it.

But I LOVE how Dateline, the Today show, 60 Minutes, yadda yadda just loves to try to scare every Tom, Dick, and Harry into believing that 50 million people world wide are going to die from the Bird Flu next week...

...whatever.

*cough* SARS *cough*
*cough WEST NILE *cough*

Well, actually, if H5N1 becomes endemic RIGHT NOW, we're all definitely screwed, because it's not going to be 50 million dead... but rather 500 million.

Fortunately, the chances of that happening are very slim.

As far as the West Nile goes, people have forgotten about it, but it's actually spreading and becoming more common... with more victims every year. But since the press doesn't focus on it, then the couple of dozen people who do die of it do not constitute a national emergency.

 

[eilute]

Originally posted by: Meuge
Doesn't matter. It's unlikely to become transmissible among people in its current form, and it will likely undergo recombination before it does so, which (as has always happened before) will weaken its lethal potential, rendering it a dangerous flu, but not the Level 4+ material it is now.

Got any sources?

 

[eilute]

Originally posted by: OrByte
*cough* SARS *cough*
*cough WEST NILE *cough*

Sars did not kill us because we were able to contain it by quarantining.

West Nile was never all that dangerous to people. It had the potential to kill a handful of people and it indeed lived up to that.

 

[Gibsons]

Originally posted by: Meuge

Originally posted by: astrosfan90
Not that this is particularly surprising.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,193239,00.html">Text</a>

If pandemic influenza hits in the next year or so, the few weapons the United States has to keep it from spreading will do little, a new computer model shows.

A pandemic flu is likely to strike one in three people if nothing is done, according to the results of computer simulation published in Thursday's journal Nature. If the government acts fast enough and has enough antiviral medicine to use as preventive dosings ? which the United States does not ? that could drop to about 28 percent of the population getting sick, the study found.

Doesn't matter. It's unlikely to become transmissible among people in its current form, and it will likely undergo recombination before it does so, which (as has always happened before) will weaken its lethal potential, rendering it a dangerous flu, but not the Level 4+ material it is now.

always? Like in 1918?

 

[WelshBloke]

Originally posted by: Meuge

Originally posted by: OrByte
unlikely to be a problem anyways...

damn someone beat me to it.

But I LOVE how Dateline, the Today show, 60 Minutes, yadda yadda just loves to try to scare every Tom, Dick, and Harry into believing that 50 million people world wide are going to die from the Bird Flu next week...

...whatever.

*cough* SARS *cough*
*cough WEST NILE *cough*

Well, actually, if H5N1 becomes endemic RIGHT NOW, we're all definitely screwed, because it's not going to be 50 million dead... but rather 500 million.

Fortunately, the chances of that happening are very slim.

As far as the West Nile goes, people have forgotten about it, but it's actually spreading and becoming more common... with more victims every year. But since the press doesn't focus on it, then the couple of dozen people who do die of it do not constitute a national emergency.

😕 There is no 'bird flu' epidemic that is dangerous to humans at the moment.
There is one that is dangerous if your a duck!

If the H5N1 strain mutates it wont instantly happen in all infected avians, it will be a new strain which will also have to travel around the world from one infection point.

 

[Meuge]

Originally posted by: Gibsons

Originally posted by: Meuge
Doesn't matter. It's unlikely to become transmissible among people in its current form, and it will likely undergo recombination before it does so, which (as has always happened before) will weaken its lethal potential, rendering it a dangerous flu, but not the Level 4+ material it is now.

always? Like in 1918?

Yes... most influenza strains come from birds... and they generally weaken before becoming endemic. The 1918 strain is dangerous... but not nearly as much as scaremongers would have you believe.

 

[Meuge]

Originally posted by: WelshBloke

Originally posted by: Meuge

Originally posted by: OrByte
unlikely to be a problem anyways...

damn someone beat me to it.

But I LOVE how Dateline, the Today show, 60 Minutes, yadda yadda just loves to try to scare every Tom, Dick, and Harry into believing that 50 million people world wide are going to die from the Bird Flu next week...

...whatever.

*cough* SARS *cough*
*cough WEST NILE *cough*

Well, actually, if H5N1 becomes endemic RIGHT NOW, we're all definitely screwed, because it's not going to be 50 million dead... but rather 500 million.

Fortunately, the chances of that happening are very slim.

As far as the West Nile goes, people have forgotten about it, but it's actually spreading and becoming more common... with more victims every year. But since the press doesn't focus on it, then the couple of dozen people who do die of it do not constitute a national emergency.

😕 There is no 'bird flu' epidemic that is dangerous to humans at the moment.
There is one that is dangerous if your a duck!

You certainly are confused. First I'd like to point out where you saw the word "epidemic" in my post. Secondly, if you think that H5N1 is only dangerous to ducks, you're free to breathe some. There is a difference between infectivity, morbidity, and transmissibility.

Originally posted by: WelshBloke
If the H5N1 strain mutates it wont instantly happen in all infected avians, it will be a new strain which will also have to travel around the world from one infection point.

Which would happen within weeks. I don't know if you've noticed, but there are very few places in the world that you can't get to within 36 hours.

 

[Meuge]

Originally posted by: eilute

Originally posted by: Meuge
Doesn't matter. It's unlikely to become transmissible among people in its current form, and it will likely undergo recombination before it does so, which (as has always happened before) will weaken its lethal potential, rendering it a dangerous flu, but not the Level 4+ material it is now.

Got any sources?

Peter Palese, a world-renowned expert on flu viruses.

 

[astrosfan90]

Originally posted by: Meuge

Originally posted by: eilute

Originally posted by: Meuge
Doesn't matter. It's unlikely to become transmissible among people in its current form, and it will likely undergo recombination before it does so, which (as has always happened before) will weaken its lethal potential, rendering it a dangerous flu, but not the Level 4+ material it is now.

Got any sources?

Peter Palese, a world-renowned expert on flu viruses.

Thanks for that, good to stay informed. 🙂

 

[SarcasticDwarf]

Stop with the fearmongering. If it ever hits, there is nothing we can do. Period. We simply will never be able to care for more than maybe 1% of our population in a hospital setting at any given time.

 

[DaiShan]

Wanna know how to slow down bird flu? Don't live with chickens.

 

[Gibsons]

Originally posted by: Meuge

Originally posted by: Gibsons

Originally posted by: Meuge
Doesn't matter. It's unlikely to become transmissible among people in its current form, and it will likely undergo recombination before it does so, which (as has always happened before) will weaken its lethal potential, rendering it a dangerous flu, but not the Level 4+ material it is now.

always? Like in 1918?

Yes... most influenza strains come from birds... and they generally weaken before becoming endemic. The 1918 strain is dangerous... but not nearly as much as scaremongers would have you believe.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think there was any evidence of the 1918 strain weakening before it infected humans.

 

[EatSpam]

Originally posted by: astrosfan90
Not that this is particularly surprising.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,193239,00.html">Text</a>

If pandemic influenza hits in the next year or so, the few weapons the United States has to keep it from spreading will do little, a new computer model shows.

A pandemic flu is likely to strike one in three people if nothing is done, according to the results of computer simulation published in Thursday's journal Nature. If the government acts fast enough and has enough antiviral medicine to use as preventive dosings ? which the United States does not ? that could drop to about 28 percent of the population getting sick, the study found.

OH NOES! Time to give up more free-dumb(tm) and submit to mandatory vaccination and quarantines! :roll:

 

[chcarnage]

Originally posted by: Gibsons
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think there was any evidence of the 1918 strain weakening before it infected humans.

I'm also curious, how and why should virus strains become less lethal when they acquire the ability to spread between humans? I see no reason for this.