Double the performance doesn't seem like too much of a stretch. If a card gave you 30 fps, you get 60 fps. If a card gave you 15 fps, you get 30 fps. Then you factor in technilogical improvements and an 18 month window is not a stretch. Let's see, 9800 XT's have been out for about 1.5 months right? So going back 18 + 1.5 months lands you at the release of the Ti4600 from Nvidia in April of 2002. Is the 9800XT 2x as fast as the Ti4600? I think so, crank up some FSAA and then tell me...within the same product group? 9800XT vs. 8500...um right. But what about the 9700 Pro? Well, it was released in August of 2002. so 18 months hits you at about February 2004 and The R420. So we'll have to see what it does to make a comparison, but since it is a brand new core over the R3XX, then it should stand to have some significant improvement. Of course, I have no idea where GTAudiophile is getting his 2x9800Pro from, that's stupid (imho). The 9800Pro was released ~ March of this year. So you have to count until September of 2004 to see if THAT card has 2x the performance of the 9800 Pro.
Ok, I see where the confusion is....
R420 is what GT is listing in his first post, however, THAT part will be 2x the 9700 Pro. A fall refresh part i.e. Q3 or early Q4 of 04 the R423 (aka the PCI-Express version) is what would be 2x Radeon 9800 Pro. GT is trying to have his cake and eat it too 😛 And the digitimes article that he quoted says the same thing, the PCI-Express fall refresh part i.e. R423 i.e. at the EARLIEST Q3 '04 is the 2X 9800 Pro part, NOT R420 in Q1 '04.
Of course, that's just my opinion.
P-X