Mobile Haswell achieves all day battery life - beginning of the end for ARM?

[itsmydamnation]

Now guys I will wager that Silvermont will do fine in tablets and great on phones . Silvermont gives intel a lower cost solution in this market , In phones Silvermont should kick butt. Airmont I hope its as good as I have read .

Now explain why apple, samsung , noika , HTC, etc would want to be nothing but OEM's. Its the ellephant in the room the ATOM will slay ARM crowd completely ignore. There are few few markets where performance is the single dictating metric to success.

 

[ShintaiDK]

Now explain why apple, samsung , noika , HTC, etc would want to be nothing but OEM's. Its the ellephant in the room the ATOM will slay ARM crowd completely ignore. There are few few markets where performance is the single dictating metric to success.

Nokia, HTC and the wast majority of Samsung products is just off the shelves components aint they? So as such they are OEMs.

None of those companies, including Apple cares for ARM. They only care about sold devices. If thats with ARM or Atom, doesnt matter.

Samsung is highly devoted to Tizen as well with Intel.

 

[itsmydamnation]

Nokia, HTC and the wast majority of Samsung products is just off the shelves components aint they? So as such they are OEMs.

No they aren't. There is no "off the shelves" from ARM, sure you can buy different licences , hard or soft macro's, a completed core etc but that's a long way from a finished SOC.

None of those companies, including Apple cares for ARM. They only care about sold devices. If thats with ARM or Atom, doesnt matter.

exactly and performance is only one aspect. So to quote myself:

Now explain why apple, samsung , noika , HTC, etc would want to be nothing but OEM's. Its the ellephant in the room the ATOM will slay ARM crowd completely ignore. There are few few markets where performance is the single dictating metric to success.

my own highlight.

hi customer A would you like our dual core ATOM with imgtec or our dual core ATOM with imgtec.

 

[simboss]

Nokia, HTC and the wast majority of Samsung products is just off the shelves components aint they? So as such they are OEMs.

They are not really off the shelves components, QC, NVidia, TI, Broadcom and co have been working with the hardware and software teams of the OEMs for a long time.
Just as Intel has been working with PC OEM for years.
But in the case of Intel, their has been a huge distortion of the power towards Intel advantage (sometimes with not very legal methods).

None of those companies, including Apple cares for ARM. They only care about sold devices. If thats with ARM or Atom, doesnt matter.

They care about the overall cost of the device, its level of integration and the ability to influence these.
Phone OEMs do not really care about ARM, but they care about not being in the same situation as PCs OEM are today, were most of the profits are sinking into WinTel pockets.
ARM is a very good way to keep competition going between suppliers, whereas x86 because of Intel very integrated business model is not.

Samsung is highly devoted to Tizen as well with Intel.

And the result today is?
This project has been on for years now, and it has not given any results, maybe it indicates something...

 

[ShintaiDK]

No they aren't. There is no "off the shelves" from ARM, sure you can buy different licences , hard or soft macro's, a completed core etc but that's a long way from a finished SOC.



exactly and performance is only one aspect. So to quote myself:



my own highlight.

hi customer A would you like our dual core ATOM with imgtec or our dual core ATOM with imgtec.

They are not really off the shelves components, QC, NVidia, TI, Broadcom and co have been working with the hardware and software teams of the OEMs for a long time.
Just as Intel has been working with PC OEM for years.
But in the case of Intel, their has been a huge distortion of the power towards Intel advantage (sometimes with not very legal methods).



They care about the overall cost of the device, its level of integration and the ability to influence these.
Phone OEMs do not really care about ARM, but they care about not being in the same situation as PCs OEM are today, were most of the profits are sinking into WinTel pockets.
ARM is a very good way to keep competition going between suppliers, whereas x86 because of Intel very integrated business model is not.



And the result today is?
This project has been on for years now, and it has not given any results, maybe it indicates something...

Neither HTC or Nokia makes their own ARM cores. They simply buy from another company like with all their components. Same applies for Samsung with a majority of their phones.

If Atom offers something better than ARM. They will use and consumers will demand it. If performance didnt, matter, why do peoples smartphones last so short before being upgraded? The number 1 issue is lack of performance. Same reason why Apple created the A6.

Samsung annouced it will ship Tizen devices later this year. First protoypes was shown last summer.

 

[simboss]

Neither HTC or Nokia makes their own ARM cores. They simply buy from another company like with all their components. Same applies for Samsung with a majority of their phones.

If Atom offers something better than ARM. They will use and consumers will demand it. If performance didnt, matter, why do peoples smartphones last so short before being upgraded? The number 1 issue is lack of performance.

Most of the consumers have no idea of the CPU running their phones, and if they do, the quality of the software stack, network capabilities, autonomy and design will be equally important.

On the other hand, the phones OEM knows really well what CPU they put on their phones, and even though from a pure technical point of view, Intel have a compelling solutions, Motorola is the only one who gave it a limited try (not even launching it worldwide).
So as itsmydamnation said, performance is not the only metric, nor is price or power efficiency, it's a combination of technical and business factors that makes Intel an uninteresting solution for phones OEM.

Samsung annouced it will ship Tizen devices later this year. First protoypes was shown last summer.

Tizen is the heir of Meego, Limo and Bada...
Tizen seems to be driven only by business reasons by 2 big companies that have never been able to deliver any real good piece of software.

I'd rather be pleasantly suprised, but I do not expect much from it (because mainly it does not seem to bring anything really interesting to the table).

 

[frozentundra123456]

You can get 40$ x86 CPUs today. And ARM usually cost around 20-30$. Some numbers below are bare production cost without any profit. For example 17½$ for the iPhone 5 CPU. Had it been sold on a regular market, its expected to cost 28$ or more.

Yes, but those are not ulv chips. Ulv ultrabook chips are very expensive. Believe me, as my other posts show, I am no fan of Android and arm. I have an android tablet, and will never buy another. I hate the slow response and buggy OS. But it still seems to me that atom/kabini will be the ultimate competitors to arm in the mass tablet market, while haswell will remain in a smaller, more expensive segment.

 

[ShintaiDK]

Yes, but those are not ulv chips. Ulv ultrabook chips are very expensive. Believe me, as my other posts show, I am no fan of Android and arm. I have an android tablet, and will never buy another. I hate the slow response and buggy OS. But it still seems to me that atom/kabini will be the ultimate competitors to arm in the mass tablet market, while haswell will remain in a smaller, more expensive segment.

Are they? The 199$ Chromebook got a ULV chip.

 

[sm625]

Well obviously they got a deal on ulv chips. Intel has been pumping out celeron 847s for ages now, and they still show an insane list price. But obviously some OEMs are getting them for under $50, maybe even under $40. But it took forever for these products to appear. If the same holds true for haswell we are talking about another full 18 months before low cost celeron haswell based products start appearing in number. That is just beyond ridiculous. In 18 months tegra 4 products will have flooded the market at much, much cheaper prices. And samsung as well.

 

[frozentundra123456]

Are they? The 199$ Chromebook got a ULV chip.

Well, I did say ultrabook chips, but I did not think of that processor either. Acutally that processor is being sold cheap now. On newegg there is a cpu/mb combo for something like 90.00. The chromebook actually does not look too bad for the price. I would almost prefer that to my 200.00 tablet, hopefully it would be faster and have better wi-fi connectivity.

 

[dagamer34]

I'm just wondering how many times Intel has said the phrase "all day battery life" and we've actually gotten it. The company has a tendency to sit on it's butt until someone lights a fire under it from competition. Conroe only came because AMD kicked Intel's ass with its Athlon FX chips. Atom has arguably stagnated in its core design for the last 5 years. Mobile Core iX chips only developed a ULV process at Apple's urging when designing the MacBook Air. Ultrabooks were created in a huge part to sell higher profit margin chips compared to netbooks. And now with the iPad eating up sales of PCs and the threat of ARM in tablets, Intel is finally forced to make even lower power chips.

Intel seems to be just like Microsoft: an 800lb gorilla that only seems to do something when provoked, and long term, that's not good for their business.

 

[cytg111]

This is kinda how things works in the wild. And you have to give credit where credit is due, Intel as a giant, if you wake it, you better be prepared to take on a giant!
Execution on core when netburst was 1up'ed by AMD? Flawless, spotless, priceless ..

 

[pyjujiop]

Wrong. ARM chips are cheap. Intel? Not so much. Mobile is a cutthroat business where even a few cents can mean the difference between winning a contract and not winning a contract.

All true. ARM chips are dirt-cheap, and they're good enough for the consumer-oriented media consumption devices that they're optimized for. Smartphones and tablets aren't going anywhere, and they'll keep using ARM because it's cost-effective and good enough.

Devices, whether they be fully-featured desktop or laptop PCs, or high-end tablets, are going to keep using x86, because you need x86 power to get real work done.

ARM isn't going anywhere, but it isn't moving up, either.

 

[Dadofamunky]

ARM is making a lot of noise about their upcoming 64-bit processors, and claiming big performance gains, but I seriously doubt they will make up that much ground in this iteration. I want to see Intel start to do some more damage in the mobile space, though. I think the performance delta is so great that they eventually will. I think in less than a year, Haswell will make Atom obsolete for anything but cheap phones. Anand's Surface article really opened my eyes in that respect. Could be an investment opportunity.

 

[Idontcare]

ARM is making a lot of noise about their upcoming 64-bit processors, and claiming big performance gains, but I seriously doubt they will make up that much ground in this iteration. I want to see Intel start to do some more damage in the mobile space, though. I think the performance delta is so great that they eventually will. I think in less than a year, Haswell will make Atom obsolete for anything but cheap phones. Anand's Surface article really opened my eyes in that respect. Could be an investment opportunity.

Chart source

ARM can do all it wants, develop the worlds most impressive 64-bit server processor design money can buy, but if they can't manufacture it on a process node that is remotely competitive to what Intel is pumping out then the final product is destined to be standing in Intel's shadow.

 

[jihe]

http://www.theverge.com/2013/1/7/3847742/intel-fourth-gen-intel-core-processor-battery-life

Intel seems really adamant that haswell is the absolute best gen to gen efficiency improvement they have ever achieved.

Well if they can better the P4-conroe jump that would make haswell one wicked cpu, can't wait.

 

[jihe]

Not really. The number 1 reason people change phones is the practice of the mobile carriers bundling phones and plans.

If performance didnt, matter, why do peoples smartphones last so short before being upgraded? The number 1 issue is lack of performance. Same reason why Apple created the A6.

 

[Imouto]

ppl will vote with their wallets one way or another.

Anyway I don't think that much ppl with a PC stacking up dust in a corner will buy another anymore and I know plenty of ppl like that being awfully happy with just a tablet.

As jihe said, and at least in my country, getting a new contract always means a new phone being the standard cycle 18 months. IT'S FREE!!!

 

[Hans de Vries]

http://www.theverge.com/2013/1/7/3847742/intel-fourth-gen-intel-core-processor-battery-life

Let's face it. The only reason ARM is relevant is because despite how hilariously low performance the current parts are, all day battery life is nice.

You can view performance benchmarks of ARM vs x86 in AT's recent review, and as expected ARM is hilariously low performance. But that battery life.

I think there will be a shift in momentum if this claim by intel (which they have made for a long time now) is true. I also think this will be the beginning of the end for ARM competition wise, they can only complete on cost - since it's obvious that they don't have high performance parts.

What do you guys think? Intel seems really adamant that haswell is the absolute best gen to gen efficiency improvement they have ever achieved. What do you guys think? I think there will be a shift in momentum towards fully capable Haswell powered ULV tablets. Now that intel has comparable battery life, aside from cost - ARM is irrelevant.

The trick to get these very fast scores is to run the processors at
very high frequency and TDP during the fraction of a second the
benchmark takes (0.15 ...0.2 seconds)

Even the most power consuming Sandy bridge and Ivy bridge aren't
that much faster:

Hans.

 

[SickBeast]

I think Haswell will do well against current ARM chips, but it's not as though ARM is sitting on their hands. Future ARM chips will surely beat Haswell, and they will probably even come out before it does. ARM obviously has efficiency advantages over x86. Intel's only advantage is manufacturing. I don't care how good their engineers are, ARM will always be better in some ways.

That said, if I could get Haswell in my phone it would be hard to say no to. I just don't think they're there yet. Perhaps in a tablet. The TDP is still going to be too high for a phone.

 

[sontin]

ARM can do all it wants, develop the worlds most impressive 64-bit server processor design money can buy, but if they can't manufacture it on a process node that is remotely competitive to what Intel is pumping out then the final product is destined to be standing in Intel's shadow.

Intel needs a one node advantage over ARM. Krait has a much better perf/watt than Clover Trail.

The first 22nm ATOM Soc appears only next year and only a short time before we see the first 20nm ARM SoCs on TSMC's 20nm process.

 

[blackened23]

I think Haswell will do well against current ARM chips, but it's not as though ARM is sitting on their hands. Future ARM chips will surely beat Haswell, and they will probably even come out before it does. ARM obviously has efficiency advantages over x86. Intel's only advantage is manufacturing. I don't care how good their engineers are, ARM will always be better in some ways.

That said, if I could get Haswell in my phone it would be hard to say no to. I just don't think they're there yet. Perhaps in a tablet. The TDP is still going to be too high for a phone.

ARM devices are only competitive in terms of efficiency, they currently aren't in the same league in terms of performance and likely never will be. Obviously for cheap devices that are (mostly) used for media consumption, this isn't a huge deal.

Going forward, ARM devices will improve slightly in performance while efficiency really won't change in meaningful ways. Performance has a price, and as ARM tries to improve performance their efficiency will be worse. Intel is improving both performance and making massive jumps in efficiency - I can't see ARM devices doing well in the premium 500$ tablet market if the claims with Haswell and especially Broadwell (which will be the true game changer) are true.

If intel matches ARM on battery life with the same form factor parameters, there is simply no reason for a 500$ premium tablet to use an ARM device, period. An intel chip opens up a wide variety of additional capabilities that ARM devices just can't match; the only advantage ARM devices have is efficiency and efficiency alone - if they lose the efficiency advantage they will compete only in the bargain bin low margin market - much like AMD.

 

[sontin]

Look at the Surface Pro: Even with a 60% bigger battery, runtime of low performance task is much more worse.

A Transformer Infinity with a 25 w/hr battery is running twice as long as the Surface Pro with a 41 w/hr battery. And the Infinity has only a 40nm Tegra 3 chip.

 

[Arachnotronic]

Look at the Surface Pro: Even with a 60% bigger battery, runtime of low performance task is much more worse.

A Transformer Infinity with a 25 w/hr battery is running twice as long as the Surface Pro with a 41 w/hr battery. And the Infinity has only a 40nm Tegra 3 chip.

That's what the 20x platform power reduction + better idle state in Haswell will fix.

 

[dguy6789]

Going forward, ARM devices will improve slightly in performance while efficiency really won't change in meaningful ways.

In the past two years ARM based devices have improved by a factor of several times in both raw performance and performance per watt. So where do you get the idea that performance will only improve slightly and efficiency will not in the future?