2. Where do you get your numbers?
My numbers come from a variety of sources, and some games have more than one source. These sources include the following:
a) Corporate Press Releases ? From time to time, particularly whenever a game reaches a particular subscriber milestone, companies will release a press release trumpeting the success of their game. This was much more common in the early years than it is today, but it still happens from time to time. Origin/EA, Verant/Sony, and Mythic have all been particularly good at regular press releases. Sadly, many of these press releases are no longer kept online, although you can still find them looking through web archives.
b) Corporate Documents ? Generally speaking, these are public documents for the purposes of financial disclosure and/or investor relations. Many people never see these documents so may be unaware of their existence. NCSoft is the best example here, as they regularly release quarterly reports that are far more detailed than what I report here. Not all MMOG developers are public, though, and many that are do not routinely disclose numbers down to the subscriber level. Sometimes a number does slip out, though, and if I find it, I?ll use it. Other times these are disclosed in bankruptcy documents or other court records.
c) News Articles ? From time to time, reporters for both online and offline publications are able to get a hold of numbers that I have not. Care has to be taken, though, as sometimes a reporter can confuse total sales with subscribers, or may simply regurgitate a number that is many months old. Still, if I find a number that appears to be credible, I will generally use it.
d) Public Comments ? Game developers and publishers will sometimes make public comments about their subscriber numbers, even if there?s no official announcement. Rarely, these comments are places like developer mailing lists or message boards; more often, they are related at gaming conferences or press events. Still, if they are not widely reported in a news article, these can be even harder to find out about.
e) Anonymous Sources ? Actually I do not have too many of these, although I certainly wish I had more. These are my own inside sources who are willing to give me numbers on the condition of anonymity. So far these have been pretty reliable ? if their numbers are not exact, they are usually in the ballpark. As always, I have to use my best judgment in deciding whether or not a source is reliable.
f) Educated Guesses ? Very rarely, a number will appear on the chat that?s non-sourced and simply my educated guess based on known information. An example might be, ?Well, we know they have at least 200K subscribers, and they?ve sold 600K copies, and their revenues are such-n-such, so I?m going to say they have at least 350K subscribers for the purposes of the chart.? I do not do this very often, and if I do, I?ll duly note it in the Analysis section by giving the data an appropriate Confidence Rating.
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