Talking out your ass again, huh?
First off, you can't legally buy a pound of retail pot in CO except 1oz at a time. Unless you have the licensing to be a provider. Ounces are $200-250, plus 21% tax. Expect the price to go lower.
Nobody can grow more plants, either. Med card holders plant counts are actually being reduced, much to the dismay of some, and personal growers only get 6, with only 3 flowering. More growers is a likely scenario, but there's no way to tell, it being completely anonymous in nature.
MMJ growing & vending has never really been competitive- there was no such thing as enough product. Retail promises to be very competitive when big growers, particularly greenhouse growers get dialed in. They enjoy enormous economies of scale, while operators & investors will accept much lower returns when personal freedom isn't an issue. Expect prices to tumble after Oct 1, when vertical integration is not required. Pot shops will be run like mom & pop liquor stores. Expect bottom line consumer pricing of retail pot to be lower than MMJ.
What you describe in the MMJ market hasn't changed a bit. Card holding resellers have been a fact of life from the beginning.
Black market? We're taking the money out of it, the only way to get rid of it.