Missing The Boom

jlmadyson

Platinum Member
Aug 13, 2004
2,201
0
0
Missing The Boom

Economy: With rising incomes, soaring wealth, bigger and better homes, plenty of jobs and low inflation, we may be living in the most prosperous time ever. Yet chances are you don't believe it one bit.

The economy isn't perfect, of course. But it's a long way from bad ? a long, long way. We ponder this as a new employment report comes out, showing 243,000 new payroll jobs in February even as the number of people re-entering the labor market swelled by nearly 350,000.

So before the data are spun beyond recognition by others, let's recount the good news: Since May 2003, when President Bush's tax cuts became law, the U.S. has created 4.7 million jobs. Payrolls have now expanded for 30 straight months. The jobless rate, though up a tick at 4.8%, is still near its five-year low.

Worker pay is also on the increase. Average weekly earnings rose 3.5% last month from a year earlier ? the best gain in more than four years.

Last summer, we all were fretting about the economic impacts of higher interest rates, surging energy prices and Hurricane Katrina. But over the last year, including the hurricane season, monthly job gains have averaged 197,000 ? more than enough to sop up the 130,000 to 150,000 monthly growth in the U.S. labor force.

Based on the continued job growth and powerful gains in retail spending, most analysts now expect GDP to jump at least 4.5% in the first quarter and 3% for all of 2006 ? even as the Federal Reserve continues to tighten credit.

In spite of all the great news, Americans remain strangely downbeat. A Gallup Poll taken earlier this year found just 38% who viewed the economy as "excellent" or "good" ? down from 46% at the start of the last recession.

Our own IBD/TIPP Polls have shown sharp drops in economic optimism and consumers' six-month outlook. (Results of our March survey are due Tuesday.)

No doubt about it, the economy keeps powering along. Yet many Americans seem to think it's all a mirage and are sold on the idea that these are the worst of times.

Why the gloom? Much of it, no doubt, stems from misreporting by the media. Against the backdrop of surging payrolls, for example, we keep seeing story after story, in print and on TV, about job "losses."

A recent study by the Media Research Center bears this out. It looked at TV news coverage of jobs in 2005 ? 151 stories in all ? carried on all three major networks.

This, mind you, was a year that saw the creation of 2 million new jobs, the addition of $350 billion to gross domestic product and an increase of $2 trillion in the value of household financial assets.Yet more than half of the networks' job reports focused on losses, not gains ? a picture that wasn't just distorted, but wrong.

Americans deserve better. In fact, they may already know better. The same polls, including ours, in which Americans indicate they are down on the economy in general also show they are upbeat about their own financial situation.

This, more than anything else, may indicate that Americans are being influenced too much by mainstream media outlets that would rather be wrong than acknowledge that an economic boom is under way.

While the economy seems to keep churning, how long before we see a real bust of any kind? Inflation worries are real as well as deficit spending, but what are the implications for this economy if this year sees another A: good year in housing, B, payrolls increase; C, GDP increases by forecast or above, and couple that with average hourly earnings growing more than they have in five years?
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,889
47
91
www.alienbabeltech.com
Originally posted by: jlmadyson
Missing The Boom

Economy: With rising incomes, soaring wealth, bigger and better homes, plenty of jobs and low inflation, we may be living in the most prosperous time ever. Yet chances are you don't believe it one bit.

The economy isn't perfect, of course. But it's a long way from bad ? a long, long way. We ponder this as a new employment report comes out, showing 243,000 new payroll jobs in February even as the number of people re-entering the labor market swelled by nearly 350,000.

So before the data are spun beyond recognition by others, let's recount the good news: Since May 2003, when President Bush's tax cuts became law, the U.S. has created 4.7 million jobs. Payrolls have now expanded for 30 straight months. The jobless rate, though up a tick at 4.8%, is still near its five-year low.

Worker pay is also on the increase. Average weekly earnings rose 3.5% last month from a year earlier ? the best gain in more than four years.

Last summer, we all were fretting about the economic impacts of higher interest rates, surging energy prices and Hurricane Katrina. But over the last year, including the hurricane season, monthly job gains have averaged 197,000 ? more than enough to sop up the 130,000 to 150,000 monthly growth in the U.S. labor force.

Based on the continued job growth and powerful gains in retail spending, most analysts now expect GDP to jump at least 4.5% in the first quarter and 3% for all of 2006 ? even as the Federal Reserve continues to tighten credit.

In spite of all the great news, Americans remain strangely downbeat. A Gallup Poll taken earlier this year found just 38% who viewed the economy as "excellent" or "good" ? down from 46% at the start of the last recession.

Our own IBD/TIPP Polls have shown sharp drops in economic optimism and consumers' six-month outlook. (Results of our March survey are due Tuesday.)

No doubt about it, the economy keeps powering along. Yet many Americans seem to think it's all a mirage and are sold on the idea that these are the worst of times.

Why the gloom? Much of it, no doubt, stems from misreporting by the media. Against the backdrop of surging payrolls, for example, we keep seeing story after story, in print and on TV, about job "losses."

A recent study by the Media Research Center bears this out. It looked at TV news coverage of jobs in 2005 ? 151 stories in all ? carried on all three major networks.

This, mind you, was a year that saw the creation of 2 million new jobs, the addition of $350 billion to gross domestic product and an increase of $2 trillion in the value of household financial assets.Yet more than half of the networks' job reports focused on losses, not gains ? a picture that wasn't just distorted, but wrong.

Americans deserve better. In fact, they may already know better. The same polls, including ours, in which Americans indicate they are down on the economy in general also show they are upbeat about their own financial situation.

This, more than anything else, may indicate that Americans are being influenced too much by mainstream media outlets that would rather be wrong than acknowledge that an economic boom is under way.

What a load of horsesh!t.
 

jlmadyson

Platinum Member
Aug 13, 2004
2,201
0
0
Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Originally posted by: jlmadyson
Missing The Boom

Economy: With rising incomes, soaring wealth, bigger and better homes, plenty of jobs and low inflation, we may be living in the most prosperous time ever. Yet chances are you don't believe it one bit.

The economy isn't perfect, of course. But it's a long way from bad ? a long, long way. We ponder this as a new employment report comes out, showing 243,000 new payroll jobs in February even as the number of people re-entering the labor market swelled by nearly 350,000.

So before the data are spun beyond recognition by others, let's recount the good news: Since May 2003, when President Bush's tax cuts became law, the U.S. has created 4.7 million jobs. Payrolls have now expanded for 30 straight months. The jobless rate, though up a tick at 4.8%, is still near its five-year low.

Worker pay is also on the increase. Average weekly earnings rose 3.5% last month from a year earlier ? the best gain in more than four years.

Last summer, we all were fretting about the economic impacts of higher interest rates, surging energy prices and Hurricane Katrina. But over the last year, including the hurricane season, monthly job gains have averaged 197,000 ? more than enough to sop up the 130,000 to 150,000 monthly growth in the U.S. labor force.

Based on the continued job growth and powerful gains in retail spending, most analysts now expect GDP to jump at least 4.5% in the first quarter and 3% for all of 2006 ? even as the Federal Reserve continues to tighten credit.

In spite of all the great news, Americans remain strangely downbeat. A Gallup Poll taken earlier this year found just 38% who viewed the economy as "excellent" or "good" ? down from 46% at the start of the last recession.

Our own IBD/TIPP Polls have shown sharp drops in economic optimism and consumers' six-month outlook. (Results of our March survey are due Tuesday.)

No doubt about it, the economy keeps powering along. Yet many Americans seem to think it's all a mirage and are sold on the idea that these are the worst of times.

Why the gloom? Much of it, no doubt, stems from misreporting by the media. Against the backdrop of surging payrolls, for example, we keep seeing story after story, in print and on TV, about job "losses."

A recent study by the Media Research Center bears this out. It looked at TV news coverage of jobs in 2005 ? 151 stories in all ? carried on all three major networks.

This, mind you, was a year that saw the creation of 2 million new jobs, the addition of $350 billion to gross domestic product and an increase of $2 trillion in the value of household financial assets.Yet more than half of the networks' job reports focused on losses, not gains ? a picture that wasn't just distorted, but wrong.

Americans deserve better. In fact, they may already know better. The same polls, including ours, in which Americans indicate they are down on the economy in general also show they are upbeat about their own financial situation.

This, more than anything else, may indicate that Americans are being influenced too much by mainstream media outlets that would rather be wrong than acknowledge that an economic boom is under way.

What a load of horsesh!t.

Ah, what, Dave, you can do better than that.

Originally posted by: KGBMAN
I agree with Dave.

When I looked up IBD, here's PROOF!

:laugh:
 

Stunt

Diamond Member
Jul 17, 2002
9,717
2
0
Dave, are there any economic indicators that would change your mind?
Do you seriously wish collapse on the American economy?
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,889
47
91
www.alienbabeltech.com
Originally posted by: Stunt
Dave, are there any economic indicators that would change your mind?
Do you seriously wish collapse on the American economy?

Absolutely, if that is what it takes to save it from total and irreversible destruction by the Republicans.
 

Stunt

Diamond Member
Jul 17, 2002
9,717
2
0
Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Originally posted by: Stunt
Dave, are there any economic indicators that would change your mind?
Do you seriously wish collapse on the American economy?
Absolutely, if that is what it takes to save it from total and irreversible destruction by the Republicans.
What kind of destruction?
If you are wishing for the collapse of the American economy; how is this any better than what you claim the republicans are doing??
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,889
47
91
www.alienbabeltech.com
Originally posted by: Stunt
Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Originally posted by: Stunt
Dave, are there any economic indicators that would change your mind?
Do you seriously wish collapse on the American economy?
Absolutely, if that is what it takes to save it from total and irreversible destruction by the Republicans.
What kind of destruction?
If you are wishing for the collapse of the American economy; how is this any better than what you claim the republicans are doing??

They've turned the U.S. into a Country only for the rich.

Never heard of having to hurt the ones you love? No I'm sure you haven't.

The Country needs tough love.
 

3chordcharlie

Diamond Member
Mar 30, 2004
9,859
1
81
Originally posted by: Stunt
Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Originally posted by: Stunt
Dave, are there any economic indicators that would change your mind?
Do you seriously wish collapse on the American economy?
Absolutely, if that is what it takes to save it from total and irreversible destruction by the Republicans.
What kind of destruction?
If you are wishing for the collapse of the American economy; how is this any better than what you claim the republicans are doing??

The Bush administration is doing a better job wrecking the idea of 'America' than wrecking the American economy.

The USA used to be a free country.
 

catnap1972

Platinum Member
Aug 10, 2000
2,607
0
76
Originally posted by: Stunt
Dave, are there any economic indicators that would change your mind?
Do you seriously wish collapse on the American economy?

How's the air in that bubble? :laugh:
 

Polish3d

Diamond Member
Jul 6, 2005
5,500
0
0
Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Originally posted by: Stunt
Dave, are there any economic indicators that would change your mind?
Do you seriously wish collapse on the American economy?

Absolutely, if that is what it takes to save it from total and irreversible destruction by the Republicans.


edit

unbelievable
 

DaveSimmons

Elite Member
Aug 12, 2001
40,730
670
126
Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the "booming economy" and "strong growth" this article describes mostly recovery from the crash at the start of Bush's first term?

It seems to carefully pick short enough (and varying) time spans to be post-crash.

My S&P 500 fund shares grew very quickly in 2002-2004 too, but that was climbing back up to post-crash levels not really new growth.

Before the fanatics attack this, no I'm not blaming Bush for the crash, it was a combination of lax SEC oversight by both Clinton and Bush admins, irrational exuberence by investors (the new tulip mania), the normal encomic cycle, and 9/11.
 

techs

Lifer
Sep 26, 2000
28,559
4
0
I only had to read to the part where it says 'rising incomes'
Guess what? America has had rising incomes every year since the Great Depression.
Its a fact that has NO MEANING when taken out of context of things like inflation.

But I did read to the part where it said "bigger and better homes"
Guess what? America has had "bigger and better homes" every year since the Great Depression.
Its a fact that has NO MEANING when taken out of context of things like what is a 'better home' Fact is homes are on smaller lots nowadays.

And I continued the part where it says "we may be living in the most prosperous time ever"
Guess what? You can say that about any year in our 200 plus year history. With no facts to back it up its just propaganda.

Oh, wait. Its an editiorial in an investor site. So I guess they would want you to think everythings great so you will invest.
Nice try, propaganda boy.
But idiot "facts" like payrolls have expanded for 30 months means NOTHING about whether real income is up or down, etc...

 

OrByte

Diamond Member
Jul 21, 2000
9,303
144
106
I will tell you what is "booming". Insurance companies.

My health insurance costs have "boomed" and damn near busted my wallet. :|
 

jlmadyson

Platinum Member
Aug 13, 2004
2,201
0
0
Originally posted by: Frackal
Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Originally posted by: Stunt
Dave, are there any economic indicators that would change your mind?
Do you seriously wish collapse on the American economy?

Absolutely, if that is what it takes to save it from total and irreversible destruction by the Republicans.


edit

unbelievable


The 08 contender, that will win the hearts and minds eh.
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,889
47
91
www.alienbabeltech.com
Originally posted by: jlmadyson
Originally posted by: Frackal
Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Originally posted by: Stunt
Dave, are there any economic indicators that would change your mind?
Do you seriously wish collapse on the American economy?

Absolutely, if that is what it takes to save it from total and irreversible destruction by the Republicans.

edit

unbelievable

The 08 contender, that will win the hearts and minds eh.

Absolutely, because the truth hurts.

If the Country cannot handle the truth, it deserves more like Bush and Co.
 

Cerb

Elite Member
Aug 26, 2000
17,484
33
86
Follow these steps:
1. Take the average wage, which is apparently up, minus all taxes, and gather debt and savings per capita, AND net savings per capita.
2. Now, take the average house cost, yearly, and subtract it, including average utilities and maintenance, and taxes. Since this is per-worker, only one would take the net cost of the house if there are more than one (so it can be distributed based on the average wage earners per household)
3. Now do that for one vehicle, to be generous, including fuel, maintenance, and insurance (more vehicles should be considered extras, not necessary costs).
4. Now, subtract the average health care cost (insurance and out of pocket, average).
5. OK, now subtract general food expences.
6. Do this now and each five years in the past, to 1970 (the year is arbitrary, except for being a multiple of 5 less than 2005), removing the very top and very bottom that really skew the averages (3%, maybe?).
7. Make a chart with the total income, taxes taken out, health care costs taken out, housing and vehicle costs, food costs, and salary left over from that, as percentages of yearly wages.
8. Finally, chart each set, with data normalized to either the start or end year. All values used will be percentages of yearly wages.
a. Show each value's change as a change in percentage of wages from the normalized year.
b. Show the average change each five year period year for all sets of defined living costs, normalized.
c. Show, again, normalized, the average change in wages left over, savings, and debt.

I will accept that information as a set of indicators of how well or poorly the economy is doing, if presented transparently and holistically (not including savings or debt, FI, could skew it a fair bit). The important information about how well the economy is doing is that information regarding the economic freedom of choice of each wage earning person, which is basically tied to how much of the money they make that they can save or spend, relative to reasonable living costs.

McOwen, got any '08 campaign stickers made yet? :D
 

MadRat

Lifer
Oct 14, 1999
11,999
307
126
Rising inflationary practices are not a sign of an economic boon. If that was true Russia's economy (post-Soviet Union collapse) would be sevenfold our own.
 

jlmadyson

Platinum Member
Aug 13, 2004
2,201
0
0
Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Originally posted by: jlmadyson
Originally posted by: Frackal
Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Originally posted by: Stunt
Dave, are there any economic indicators that would change your mind?
Do you seriously wish collapse on the American economy?

Absolutely, if that is what it takes to save it from total and irreversible destruction by the Republicans.

edit

unbelievable

The 08 contender, that will win the hearts and minds eh.

Absolutely, because the truth hurts.

If the Country cannot handle the truth, it deserves more like Bush and Co.

That is fine in all in theory, but when our we going to see the economy actually collapse, and when will see this great depression.
 

shadow9d9

Diamond Member
Jul 6, 2004
8,132
2
0
Originally posted by: jlmadyson
Missing The Boom

Economy: With rising incomes, soaring wealth, bigger and better homes, plenty of jobs and low inflation, we may be living in the most prosperous time ever. Yet chances are you don't believe it one bit.

The economy isn't perfect, of course. But it's a long way from bad ? a long, long way. We ponder this as a new employment report comes out, showing 243,000 new payroll jobs in February even as the number of people re-entering the labor market swelled by nearly 350,000.

So before the data are spun beyond recognition by others, let's recount the good news: Since May 2003, when President Bush's tax cuts became law, the U.S. has created 4.7 million jobs. Payrolls have now expanded for 30 straight months. The jobless rate, though up a tick at 4.8%, is still near its five-year low.

Worker pay is also on the increase. Average weekly earnings rose 3.5% last month from a year earlier ? the best gain in more than four years.

Last summer, we all were fretting about the economic impacts of higher interest rates, surging energy prices and Hurricane Katrina. But over the last year, including the hurricane season, monthly job gains have averaged 197,000 ? more than enough to sop up the 130,000 to 150,000 monthly growth in the U.S. labor force.

Based on the continued job growth and powerful gains in retail spending, most analysts now expect GDP to jump at least 4.5% in the first quarter and 3% for all of 2006 ? even as the Federal Reserve continues to tighten credit.

In spite of all the great news, Americans remain strangely downbeat. A Gallup Poll taken earlier this year found just 38% who viewed the economy as "excellent" or "good" ? down from 46% at the start of the last recession.

Our own IBD/TIPP Polls have shown sharp drops in economic optimism and consumers' six-month outlook. (Results of our March survey are due Tuesday.)

No doubt about it, the economy keeps powering along. Yet many Americans seem to think it's all a mirage and are sold on the idea that these are the worst of times.

Why the gloom? Much of it, no doubt, stems from misreporting by the media. Against the backdrop of surging payrolls, for example, we keep seeing story after story, in print and on TV, about job "losses."

A recent study by the Media Research Center bears this out. It looked at TV news coverage of jobs in 2005 ? 151 stories in all ? carried on all three major networks.

This, mind you, was a year that saw the creation of 2 million new jobs, the addition of $350 billion to gross domestic product and an increase of $2 trillion in the value of household financial assets.Yet more than half of the networks' job reports focused on losses, not gains ? a picture that wasn't just distorted, but wrong.

Americans deserve better. In fact, they may already know better. The same polls, including ours, in which Americans indicate they are down on the economy in general also show they are upbeat about their own financial situation.

This, more than anything else, may indicate that Americans are being influenced too much by mainstream media outlets that would rather be wrong than acknowledge that an economic boom is under way.

While the economy seems to keep churning, how long before we see a real bust of any kind? Inflation worriers are real as well as deficit spending, but what are the implications for this economy if this year sees another A: good year in housing, B, payrolls increase; C, GDP increases by forecast or above, and couple that with average hourly earnings growing more than they have in five years?


Here is the problem with these articles.... Read the articles and then talk to real people that are struggling... there is a huge disconnect between them.
 

conjur

No Lifer
Jun 7, 2001
58,686
3
0
Gotta agree with Dave on this one. That article is a bunch of spin and propaganda.

Proof?

Why the gloom? Much of it, no doubt, stems from misreporting by the media. Against the backdrop of surging payrolls, for example, we keep seeing story after story, in print and on TV, about job "losses."

A recent study by the Media Research Center bears this out. It looked at TV news coverage of jobs in 2005 ? 151 stories in all ? carried on all three major networks.
Any guesses on who runs MRC?

http://www.dkosopedia.com/index.php/Brent_Bozell
 
Oct 30, 2004
11,442
32
91

So before the data are spun beyond recognition by others, let's recount the good news: Since May 2003, when President Bush's tax cuts became law, the U.S. has created 4.7 million jobs. Payrolls have now expanded for 30 straight months. The jobless rate, though up a tick at 4.8%, is still near its five-year low.

What the author conveniently (and perhaps purposely) failed to mention was that the nation's population also increased, including the population of working-aged people. It's been said that 150,000 new jobs need to be created every month just to stay in place. 34 months have elapsed since May 2003, which is .15 million * 34 months = (ta-dah) 5.1 million. 5.1 million is more than 4.7 million, meaning that the nation might have actually lost jobs relative to population growth. (That growth might not count illegals, who might take some of those 4.7 million jobs but wouldn't count as part of the 5.1 million number.) Of course, since the nation suffered job loss while population continued to grow previously, much of those alleged 4.7 million jobs was taken up by the glut of people looking for work.

Last summer, we all were fretting about the economic impacts of higher interest rates, surging energy prices and Hurricane Katrina. But over the last year, including the hurricane season, monthly job gains have averaged 197,000 ? more than enough to sop up the 130,000 to 150,000 monthly growth in the U.S. labor force.

That's nice, but we're going to need a large number of months like that to make for all of the lost ground. Of course, that doesn't even address the issue of job quality.

In spite of all the great news, Americans remain strangely downbeat. A Gallup Poll taken earlier this year found just 38% who viewed the economy as "excellent" or "good" ? down from 46% at the start of the last recession.

They're all crazy traitors! They aren't with the Bush program! We should deport all of those pessimists!

No doubt about it, the economy keeps powering along. Yet many Americans seem to think it's all a mirage and are sold on the idea that these are the worst of times.

Perhaps the author needs to question all of the numbers and address the issue of job quality? Perhaps McWalmart jobs and part-time jobs are easy to come by, but what about solid middle class jobs with benefits?

Why the gloom? Much of it, no doubt, stems from misreporting by the media. Against the backdrop of surging payrolls, for example, we keep seeing story after story, in print and on TV, about job "losses."

Surging payrolls...at McWalmart? Surging payrolls...at part-time and temp jobs? Maybe if the payrolls were surging at high-value-added education-requiring knowledge-based middle class jobs people would be less pessimistic.

This, mind you, was a year that saw the creation of 2 million new jobs, the addition of $350 billion to gross domestic product and an increase of $2 trillion in the value of household financial assets.Yet more than half of the networks' job reports focused on losses, not gains ? a picture that wasn't just distorted, but wrong.

The author makes it sound as though the populace's feelings about the economy are baseless. Might they have something to do with the tens of millions of Americans who suffered layoffs and who were never able to find positions comparable to the ones they lost? Might it have something to do with Americans who know people who have suffered? Could it have something to do with Americans who know college grads who can't find appropriate positions?

While the economy seems to keep churning, how long before we see a real bust of any kind? Inflation worriers are real as well as deficit spending, but what are the implications for this economy if this year sees another A: good year in housing, B, payrolls increase; C, GDP increases by forecast or above, and couple that with average hourly earnings growing more than they have in five years?

Good question. What if this is as good as it gets? What if what we've seen is the "boom" in the economic cycle? I'd hate to see the next recession.

 

MonkeyK

Golden Member
May 27, 2001
1,396
8
81
I am not an economist, however it seems to me that while wages could have increased, it would matter very much where they increase. This is particularly evident when set against the, not contradictory, statement of job losses.

If two people who made 40K/year lose their jobs and one person who makes 1,000,000/year gets a 110K raise, things have not improved.

If the number of people who cannot afford a decent life is increaseing, even if the number of people who continue to afford a better life is not increasing, then it seems to me that the economy is not doing well.
 

charrison

Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
17,033
1
81
Originally posted by: MonkeyK
I am not an economist, however it seems to me that while wages could have increased, it would matter very much where they increase. This is particularly evident when set against the, not contradictory, statement of job losses.

If two people who made 40K/year lose their jobs and one person who makes 1,000,000/year gets a 110K raise, things have not improved.

If the number of people who cannot afford a decent life is increaseing, even if the number of people who continue to afford a better life is not increasing, then it seems to me that the economy is not doing well.

There of course is no evidence to support the example you cite.