Microsoft's Research Scientists Finally Solved Why Scammers Say They're From Nigeria

[MotionMan]

Microsoft's Research Scientists Finally Solved Why Scammers Say They're From Nigeria

Scam emails usually have two things in common: they're comically bad, and they're from a Nigerian prince.

You might think that's a silly strategy, but it turns out it's not.
Microsoft released a new white paper from its research division this month that explains why scammers use such a "terrible" approach.

It turns out it's a method for sifting out "false positives," — basically finding only the most gullible people so the scammer doesn't waste any time exchanging with a mark that isn't going to result in a payout.

You can read the full paper on its research site — which uses complex mathematical modeling techniques to sift out the false positive rate. But here's the most important part from the abstract:

Far-fetched tales of West African riches strike most as comical. Our analysis suggests that is an advantage to the attacker, not a disadvantage. Since his attack has a low density of victims the Nigerian scammer has an over-riding need to reduce false positives. By sending an email that repels all but the most gullible the scammer gets the most promising marks to self-select, and tilts the true to false positive ratio in his favor.

Cliffs: It's because they are looking for the stupidest people since they are more likely to fall for the scam.

Another one for the "Did we really need to research this to come up with the answer?" file.

MotionMan

 

[Ns1]

Hm, makes sense

Far-fetched tales of West African riches strike most as comical. Our analysis suggests that is an advantage to the attacker, not a disadvantage. Since his attack has a low density of victims the Nigerian scammer has an over-riding need to reduce false positives. By sending an email that repels all but the most gullible the scammer gets the most promising marks to self-select, and tilts the true to false positive ratio in his favor.

 

[Krazy4Real]

Time to crank up the false positives.

 

[FoBoT]

so, basically, its the same reason amway started using john tesh in advertising
i see

 

[nonameo]

in other words, we need to respond to scammers in order to waste their time.

p-p-powerbook style maybe?

 

[ImpulsE69]

Hello friends, I'd like to introduce myself.

I am a Nigerian Prince and I've recently come into 100,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 in diamonds and no you can't have any.

 

[pelov]

so, basically, its the same reason amway started using john tesh in advertising
i see

No, that's just Amway catering to the extraterrestrial passenger.

 

[SKORPI0]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advance-fee_fraud.

 

[CountZero]

Microsoft's Research Scientists Finally Solved Why Scammers Say They're From Nigeria



Cliffs: It's because they are looking for the stupidest people since they are more likely to fall for the scam.

Another one for the "Did we really need to research this to come up with the answer?" file.

MotionMan

I don't agree with the did we need to research this angle. Honestly I've wondered why any scammer would be so blatantly obvious and until reading this I really would have never thought of it in terms of trying to get only the absolute stupidest people possible. Interesting, thankfully the prince I'm working with is from Chile so no worries here.

 

[Red Squirrel]

Makes sense.

I have not gotten one of these in a long time actually. They're always fun to reply to.

I had one ready to ship out the money to me, then I said to not worry about it, just roll it up in pennies and I'll send a chopper tonight to pick it up. Never got a response.

 

[DrPizza]

Seems I've been one step ahead of the geniuses at Microsoft for the past few years. Given their white paper, the solution is obvious. It's only efficient and profitable to be a scammer if you don't have a shitload of false positives. If every person receiving a scam email (all 200 million or so of us in the U.S. alone) responded, rather than deleted, then the scammers would be completely overwhelmed.

 

[Lifted]

If every person receiving a scam email (all 200 million or so of us in the U.S. alone) responded, rather than deleted, then the scammers would be completely overwhelmed.

Because too many customers is a bad thing. That's totally what Microsoft was getting at.

 

[Childs]

This could probably applies to male enhancement and hair loss spams as well. If something like that actually worked, you would have used it by now. Its an interesting concept, but I have a feeling too much thought wasn't put into it. It was probably more happenstance. The Nigerian Prince scam is just a variation of old scams. I would tend to think the nature of email and the volume of spam simply means you can try it on more people. A dumb person wouldn't think about the details of whether its more believable with the scammer being Nigerian. You could probably claim its a new IRS policy or something. I did not read the article, just the cliffs.

 

[pelov]

This could probably applies to male enhancement and hair loss spams as well. If something like that actually worked...

I present to you a Russian man growing his penis on his arm.

A Russian man born with genitals so small that he was unable to have sex has been given the chance to lead a normal love life after a new penis was "grown" on his arm during pioneering surgery.
In an 11-hour operation, plastic surgeons in Moscow removed the 28-year-old's undersized penis and stitched it on to his left forearm, where they grafted on additional flesh and tissue taken from his inner arm. The newly enlarged organ, which had grown from less than 2ins to nearly 7ins, was then reattached to his groin.

Though I can't remember ever receiving that spam email.

 

[Childs]

I present to you a Russian man growing his penis on his arm.



Though I can't remember ever receiving that spam email.

Ahem, this article is from 2005. If it actually worked you'd see every guy walking around with a penis on their arm. Even guys who are already 8+ would go to 15. You wouldn't need spam to tell you about it.

 

[pelov]

Ahem, this article is from 2005. If it actually worked you'd see every guy walking around with a penis on their arm. Even guys who are already 8+ would go to 15. You wouldn't need spam to tell you about it.

It actually worked. There's a paper on it (in Russian) and photos to go along with it.

I know what you're next question is going to be and the doctor's name is Mikhail Sokolshchik and no, I don't have his phone number or email address.

 

[Childs]

It actually worked. There's a paper on it (in Russian) and photos to go along with it.

I know what you're next question is going to be and the doctor's name is Mikhail Sokolshchik and no, I don't have his phone number or email address.

I actually suffer from mega penis syndrome. It would just make my life worse. Buts its nice to know you've done your research! :biggrin:

 

[OVerLoRDI]

in other words, we need to respond to scammers in order to waste their time.

p-p-powerbook style maybe?

p-p-powerbook is awesome. rereading now.

 

[Eug]

These are two different scam emails received at two different times for my same ad. I live in Toronto. I like the name Mr. SLYvester.


Todd Johnston <mich_freenor@yahoo.com> wrote:

Date: Wed, 21 Mar 2007 10:42:32 -0700 (PDT)
From: Todd Johnston <mich_freenor@yahoo.com>
Subject: Apple iMac G5 2.0 GHz, 1.5 GB RAM, 400 GB HD, Radeon 9600
To: xxx@craigslist.org

Hello,
Please I will like to know if your item is still available. I want to buy it for a son as a Birthday gift.Email me as soon as you can so that we can proceed because I'll be leaving town in few days time

Thanks,
Todd Johnston
# 206-333-1695



Slyvester Andrew <comewithme105@yahoo.com> wrote:

Date: Wed, 21 Mar 2007 20:06:58 -0700 (PDT)
From: Slyvester Andrew <comewithme105@yahoo.com>
Subject: Apple iMac G5 2.0 GHz, 1.5 GB RAM, 400 GB HD, Radeon 9600
To: xxx@craigslist.org

Hello Dear,
Please I'll like to know if your [Apple iMac G5] is still available. I want to buy it for my Spouse as an Easter present. Hope it's in good state and working well. Email me immediately so that we can proceed because I'll be Leaving town soon. I'm willing to pay as soon as possible to enable it get to her.

Let me hear from you as soon as possible.

Regards,
Andrew Slyvester
Operational Manager
Calumet Feed and Supply Inc
Mailing Address: 1251 Milwaukee Drive
New Holstein , WI 53061