Microsoft: Xbox 360 to Sell 100m, Next Gen Consoles to Sell 1 Billion

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HeXen

Diamond Member
Dec 13, 2009
7,828
37
91
1 billion unit is completely delusional. We have some 7.1 billion individual on earth during 2012 that would mean 1 out 7 would have a console and even if let say every buyer of the console would replace it once in its lifetime that would still mean 1 out 14 individual would own one

Well when a consumer has to purchase a replacement again and again like the 360 *ahem.
 

Arkaign

Lifer
Oct 27, 2006
20,736
1,377
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He's specifically talking about next gen systems, WiiU, PS4, and Xbox One. I bet this coming generation will go on as long or longer than the previous generation (PS3, Xbox 360, Wii) which really went on for a very long time compared to how it has typically been.

Yeah, and if he's somehow between the lines 'counting' previous gen systems such as 360/PS3, he's insane. Even the idea that the 360 is still going to be viable after the Xbone/PS4 launch is idiotic. Old gens get cobwebbed by the masses. I, as a collector, am a rarity, in that I don't mind having old systems hooked up (typically 1-2 retro consoles hooked up at my house at any time), but the vast majority of people mothball the old ones as soon as they get a new one, or simply sell it at a garage sale/give it away. Let's look at rehash/overcooked consoles from the past :

Nintendo tried to continue the NES with a new model after the 16-bit era dropped, and that pretty much went nowhere.

Sega tried the Master System Base Converter for the Genesis, but nobody really cared about playing SMS games anymore.

Sony re-released the PS'One' after PS2, that was pointless. I think they might have even still been trying to sell PS2s after the PS3 launch.

Oh yeah, Atari re-released the 2600 and Atari 8-bit stuff a number of times even after the 84 crash, and that was pointless as well (eg; Atari XE was a re-hashed Atari 800 and a re-hashed library, etc).

360 is going to be about as popular as VHS after PS4/Xbone hit.
 

zerocool84

Lifer
Nov 11, 2004
36,041
472
126
Sony re-released the PS'One' after PS2, that was pointless. I think they might have even still been trying to sell PS2s after the PS3 launch.

The PSone still sold fairly well after the PS2 and the PS2 went onto becoming the #1 selling console of all time even after the PS3 came out so the market is huge for cheap consoles.
 

Veliko

Diamond Member
Feb 16, 2011
3,597
127
106
Let's look at rehash/overcooked consoles from the past :

Nintendo tried to continue the NES with a new model after the 16-bit era dropped, and that pretty much went nowhere.

Sega tried the Master System Base Converter for the Genesis, but nobody really cared about playing SMS games anymore.

Sony re-released the PS'One' after PS2, that was pointless. I think they might have even still been trying to sell PS2s after the PS3 launch.

Oh yeah, Atari re-released the 2600 and Atari 8-bit stuff a number of times even after the 84 crash, and that was pointless as well (eg; Atari XE was a re-hashed Atari 800 and a re-hashed library, etc).

360 is going to be about as popular as VHS after PS4/Xbone hit.

The SNES was still being manufactured in 2003.

The PS2 still sold quite well when the PS3 was out.
 

clok1966

Golden Member
Jul 6, 2004
1,395
13
76
http://www.vgchartz.com/article/250978/microsoft-xbox-360-to-sell-100m-next-gen-consoles-to-sell-1-billion/

Microsoft’s senior vice president of Interactive Entertainment Business Yusuf Mehdi spoke with OXM about the sales of the Xbox 360, as well as the next generation of consoles. He expects the Xbox 360 to sell at least 100 million units before it is taken off the market.Half of the sales in the future he says will be replacement, while the other half will be new buyers.


excellent marketing to tell your customer half the units you sell are going to be replacements.. Average electronic fail rate for major electronics ( TV's, radios. dvd/bluray) is 6%).. Now I know taking APPLES approach is good for cash, but bad in long run.. An upgraded version of the old version every year.. some will replace working consoles. I always loved how the early Xbox 360 had a HUGE fail rate and they counted those replacements in sold consoles.. Nice way to pad your numbers for market spin.

Why doesn't MS just stick to the truth.. it has the BEST sell through on games.. Its constant "WE sell the most in US" just smacks of ignorance and belittles other countries. The PS3 has caught the 360 in total sales and was out a year less.. BUT MS sells the most games.. all this BS marketing talk is just making um stink.. just like the amazingly evasive answers on the USED GAMES on the next xbox.. Quite trying to BULLSHIT your way through, tell us the truth and live with it..
 

dagamer34

Platinum Member
Aug 15, 2005
2,591
0
71
Yeah, and if he's somehow between the lines 'counting' previous gen systems such as 360/PS3, he's insane. Even the idea that the 360 is still going to be viable after the Xbone/PS4 launch is idiotic. Old gens get cobwebbed by the masses. I, as a collector, am a rarity, in that I don't mind having old systems hooked up (typically 1-2 retro consoles hooked up at my house at any time), but the vast majority of people mothball the old ones as soon as they get a new one, or simply sell it at a garage sale/give it away. Let's look at rehash/overcooked consoles from the past :

Nintendo tried to continue the NES with a new model after the 16-bit era dropped, and that pretty much went nowhere.

Sega tried the Master System Base Converter for the Genesis, but nobody really cared about playing SMS games anymore.

Sony re-released the PS'One' after PS2, that was pointless. I think they might have even still been trying to sell PS2s after the PS3 launch.

Oh yeah, Atari re-released the 2600 and Atari 8-bit stuff a number of times even after the 84 crash, and that was pointless as well (eg; Atari XE was a re-hashed Atari 800 and a re-hashed library, etc).

360 is going to be about as popular as VHS after PS4/Xbone hit.

Sony sold 35 million PS2s after the PS3 was released. Heck, the PS2 wasn't officially released in Brazil until 2009. Sure, it could have been illegally imported before, but it would have been super expensive. And because of their import laws, anything not manufactured in that country and imported through official channels is super expensive (we're talking $1000 US here).

Also, neither the PS3 or Xbox 360 have dropped below $250 for a system with a hard drive. And we are at year 7-8 on this generation. Can you imagine going down to $199, $149, or $99? There is still plenty of life yet.
 

Anteaus

Platinum Member
Oct 28, 2010
2,448
4
81
excellent marketing to tell your customer half the units you sell are going to be replacements.. Average electronic fail rate for major electronics ( TV's, radios. dvd/bluray) is 6%).. Now I know taking APPLES approach is good for cash, but bad in long run.. An upgraded version of the old version every year.. some will replace working consoles. I always loved how the early Xbox 360 had a HUGE fail rate and they counted those replacements in sold consoles.. Nice way to pad your numbers for market spin.

Why doesn't MS just stick to the truth.. it has the BEST sell through on games.. Its constant "WE sell the most in US" just smacks of ignorance and belittles other countries. The PS3 has caught the 360 in total sales and was out a year less.. BUT MS sells the most games.. all this BS marketing talk is just making um stink.. just like the amazingly evasive answers on the USED GAMES on the next xbox.. Quite trying to BULLSHIT your way through, tell us the truth and live with it..

He's just being honest. Every major console release goes through this towards the end. Many of my friends had owned as many as 3-4 PS2 systems since release, simply because some break and some are upgraded to the newer models. With backwards compatibility virtually non-existant I wouldn't be surprised if some purchse the latest PS3 or 360 model as a backup. Maybe you personally have never done it, but it's very common and does account for a large amount of residual sales.

Also, regardless of what Sony says right now the PS4 will have similar DRM requirements so this isn't just MS being buttholes. The only difference between Sony and MS on this topic is that Sony said they are going to let developers choose, while MS worked with developers on developing a system they all want. Some games will likely escape the clutches of DRM on the PS4, but the big developers are going to employ various DRM practices that are already established in the PC world, such as activation and online connectivity and they are going to apply them to the PS4 and XB1 even-handedly. Killing the free flow of used games is beneficial to console makers and developers alike because it provides a secondary revenue stream, so any thoughts to Sony forcing it down is completely naive. Once MS proves that money can be made by restricting access, then Sony will jump on board. It wouldn't be the first time they removed or changed a console featureset post-launch. That's something MS never did.

I personally think it's refreshing that MS has decided on full disclosure. I just wish Sony would do the same. They are still very elusive on the DRM issue. The only thing they've said is that they won't restrict discs and that any additional DRM is completely up to the developers, knowing full well that those same developers are going to employ the same DRM that MS is promoting.
 

Arkaign

Lifer
Oct 27, 2006
20,736
1,377
126
The SNES was still being manufactured in 2003.

The PS2 still sold quite well when the PS3 was out.

I don't think the US had wide SNES distribution much after 95-96, they had a 2nd-gen model that is fairly rare (I see at least 50 original SNES models for every 'mini' SNES).

PS2 sales continued, but really took a dive after '05-'06. I think most of their later sales were in other markets (Sony sold the PS2 until 2012 in Japan!).
 

Arkaign

Lifer
Oct 27, 2006
20,736
1,377
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Sony sold 35 million PS2s after the PS3 was released. Heck, the PS2 wasn't officially released in Brazil until 2009. Sure, it could have been illegally imported before, but it would have been super expensive. And because of their import laws, anything not manufactured in that country and imported through official channels is super expensive (we're talking $1000 US here).

Also, neither the PS3 or Xbox 360 have dropped below $250 for a system with a hard drive. And we are at year 7-8 on this generation. Can you imagine going down to $199, $149, or $99? There is still plenty of life yet.

Perhaps outside the US there is more life to old systems. PS2 big releases dried up after PS3 hit, can you name any major exclusives on PS2 after 2006? Or how about PS1 games after 2000? Or even original Xbox titles after 2005?

People can already get PS3s and especially 360s for cheap, and they do sell, but they're officially still 'current' gen. I think we'll see the typical (in the US at least), flood of cheap used 360s/PS3s when the new ones hit, and the typical drying up of new titles that the most profitable gamers want to play.
 

Arkaign

Lifer
Oct 27, 2006
20,736
1,377
126
He's just being honest. Every major console release goes through this towards the end. Many of my friends had owned as many as 3-4 PS2 systems since release, simply because some break and some are upgraded to the newer models. With backwards compatibility virtually non-existant I wouldn't be surprised if some purchse the latest PS3 or 360 model as a backup. Maybe you personally have never done it, but it's very common and does account for a large amount of residual sales.

Also, regardless of what Sony says right now the PS4 will have similar DRM requirements so this isn't just MS being buttholes. The only difference between Sony and MS on this topic is that Sony said they are going to let developers choose, while MS worked with developers on developing a system they all want. Some games will likely escape the clutches of DRM on the PS4, but the big developers are going to employ various DRM practices that are already established in the PC world, such as activation and online connectivity and they are going to apply them to the PS4 and XB1 even-handedly. Killing the free flow of used games is beneficial to console makers and developers alike because it provides a secondary revenue stream, so any thoughts to Sony forcing it down is completely naive. Once MS proves that money can be made by restricting access, then Sony will jump on board. It wouldn't be the first time they removed or changed a console featureset post-launch. That's something MS never did.

I personally think it's refreshing that MS has decided on full disclosure. I just wish Sony would do the same. They are still very elusive on the DRM issue. The only thing they've said is that they won't restrict discs and that any additional DRM is completely up to the developers, knowing full well that those same developers are going to employ the same DRM that MS is promoting.

You think Microsoft has decided on full disclosure? They've been vague, contradictory, arrogant, and condescending in equally large measures.
 

American Gunner

Platinum Member
Aug 26, 2010
2,399
0
71
I personally think it's refreshing that MS has decided on full disclosure. I just wish Sony would do the same. They are still very elusive on the DRM issue. The only thing they've said is that they won't restrict discs and that any additional DRM is completely up to the developers, knowing full well that those same developers are going to employ the same DRM that MS is promoting.
This is where Sony can come off looking good to some people. They can come out and cry foul and say that it is all because of MS and the publishers, and that their hands are tied and some people will take it and run with it.
 

Anteaus

Platinum Member
Oct 28, 2010
2,448
4
81
You think Microsoft has decided on full disclosure? They've been vague, contradictory, arrogant, and condescending in equally large measures.

I think that Sony and MS have both offered very little in the past six months and that the player base has thrived on half-truths and rumors. I think that MS knows they are doing something very unpopular and that its better to get it out early and then let the PR machine do its job than to release the console and suffer tremendous backlash at release. They probably feel they will lose some customers regardless but doing it this way means they will have time to bring some of them back around.

I think it is incredibly ballsy for MS to be so blantant about this with no short term benefit. They have many smart people working there, so from a business perspective I can only imagine they did this if they knew it was inevitable and that they wanted get it out of the way. Gamers can't come back and say "Hey, I didn't know this is what I was buying!".

I think what will happen is that eventually Sony will admit that these things will happen with the PS4 and that MS will then play the "we were honest and Sony was not" card.

The truth of the matter is that both Sony and MS have observed the success digital distribution services like Steam in spite of intrusive DRM. They want their own versions of it. That can only come from retricting access. It's not about piracy anymore. It's about revenue, and thats why I cry BS when I hear Sony waffling just to make people happy. People should just assume that what MS is doing, Sony will do.

At that point, gamers have to decide whether they will give up console gaming altogether or suck and up and move forward. Unfortunately those are only two options. There is no option where if they yell loud enough that MS and Sony will reverse and go backwards.

This is an industry-wide issue, not just something MS threw on the table. They've been building toward it for the past couple years, even if they never put a name to it. PSN and XB-Live are the future and eventually everything will filter through them, disc or not.
 
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smackababy

Lifer
Oct 30, 2008
27,024
79
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This is where Sony can come off looking good to some people. They can come out and cry foul and say that it is all because of MS and the publishers, and that their hands are tied and some people will take it and run with it.

If you think publishers aren't pushing Sony into an agreement similar to the purposed DRM MS is pushing, you are very naive. Sony can try and come off looking like the good guy with some "Oh they forced us to do it" garbage, but at the end of the day they don't care about gamers. They care about money. And without publishers on board, they lose out on a lot of gamers who have to choose between the two systems. Thankfully, I am not one of those. I can flat $1000 in a week for both systems and not really feel it, but there are a lot less fortunate people than me that want to game. Sony knows this. They know if Madden and CoD aren't on the PS4, it won't sell as many units. They know exclusive first party titles won't carry them far enough. They want to please publishers like EA and Activision just as much as MS. MS is playing their cards and Sony is just waiting. It is not the best move. They should come out and tell us already, but they think averting THIS outrage will make the outrage when they announce it lesser. That is a mistake.
 

American Gunner

Platinum Member
Aug 26, 2010
2,399
0
71
Smackababy, maybe I came off wrong on my post. I don't doubt for a second that Sony is doing the same thing with used games. I also expect them to try to rationalize it some how, but hopefully most people would see through a "the publishers made us do it" defense. I know this isn't a popular thought, but I just think this is the shift in gaming that is going to happen whether we like it or not. Used games limitations doesn't hurt me at all. I don't buy used games, and I rarely trade in games these days. I don't have extra consoles in my house. My kids can either play their Ds's or they can go play outside, so all of this negative stuff doesn't bother me in the grand scheme of things. I just want to be able to disable the mic on Kinect, because I always have noise in my house thanks to kids, dogs, and a woman that wants to tell me about her day while I am playing something. Let me disable the mic, so that my friends don't have to hear all that, and I am good.
 

Aikouka

Lifer
Nov 27, 2001
30,383
912
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To sell another 25 million, half of those will probably come from replacements, but half will come from new buyers."

I thought that this was the best part. So, 12.5 million of our older units (~21% of the current 75 million install base) will break to the point that they need to be replaced by newer units.
 

Tom

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
13,293
1
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Here's my deal with used games.

The only reason I'll buy almost any newish console game for more than about $30 is becasue the net cost after I'm done with it and sell it isn't too bad.

Otherwise I'll wait 'til its $20. And by that time I might not care enough to buy it at all or wait until its $5.

And once its that cheap I'd rather have the better pc version anyway.

Which is why I have 50 Steam games instead of 50 xbox games.
 

dagamer34

Platinum Member
Aug 15, 2005
2,591
0
71
I thought that this was the best part. So, 12.5 million of our older units (~21% of the current 75 million install base) will break to the point that they need to be replaced by newer units.

It's actually not really that out of the ordinary according to Square Trade: http://www.squaretrade.com/htm/pop/lm_failureRates.html

Don't forget that people on their own will easily break stuff for idiotic reasons.
 

Subyman

Moderator <br> VC&G Forum
Mar 18, 2005
7,876
32
86
Hmmm 100m install base, but half the sales to get there are replacements...
 

smackababy

Lifer
Oct 30, 2008
27,024
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It makes perfect sense. If they release a cheaper, smaller 360, quite a few people will replace their old models with the new one. I had a perfectly working (albeit modded) 360 when the Slim came out and I still bought one.
 

Veliko

Diamond Member
Feb 16, 2011
3,597
127
106
It makes perfect sense. If they release a cheaper, smaller 360, quite a few people will replace their old models with the new one. I had a perfectly working (albeit modded) 360 when the Slim came out and I still bought one.

Quite.

Unfortunately, these message boards are full of people looking for something to be outraged about.

OMG MICRO$OFT SAY THEY SELL BILLOIN COS OF RRODS!!11!!1
 

clok1966

Golden Member
Jul 6, 2004
1,395
13
76
Quite.

Unfortunately, these message boards are full of people looking for something to be outraged about.

OMG MICRO$OFT SAY THEY SELL BILLOIN COS OF RRODS!!11!!1

outrage? so it must have outraged you enough to speak.. every console maker sells replacement if there are 2 (or more) models and the new one is appealing in some way..Nobody is denying this that i see. Just several pointing out one console manufacture had a MUCH HIGHER rate of fail then the others. I think all the people also mentioned it was JUST early models too, so the numbers are skewed a bit. We wont talk how one manufacture makes a HD less unit which is not useless, but can be if you want to download more then a few games from the marketplace or put games on a HD for speed (don't some games require a HD install now?)

NO the problem is console manufactures are making a MAJOR change to how we play/ buy and sell games and we are all OUTRAGED.. not at one manufacture.. Yes MS is getting the brunt of it right now, they are using the standard Bullshit marketing talk.. but not giving any answers.. "it will play used games" we ask HOW.. because we hear of fee's and such.. MS just says 'it will play used games" and wont say more.. Iknow some out of touch people think SONY will be the savior... as they have kept there mouth shut (the only smart thing they have done in years) but anybody with any thought nows both systems will be the same on the USED GAME side.. No major publisher will let Sony not register games if MS is doing it.. they will both be the same..

the problem is we want to know exactly what that is.. and nobody will tell us, Sony wont say anything, and MS keeps saying we are WRONG, but wont tell us why.

and
"OMG MICRO$OFT SAY THEY SELL BILLOIN COS OF RRODS!!11!!1"

no we (forum posters) said they sold more because of RROD, not MS, or did MS say they sold more, interesting :)
 
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Midwayman

Diamond Member
Jan 28, 2000
5,723
325
126
If you think publishers aren't pushing Sony into an agreement similar to the purposed DRM MS is pushing, you are very naive. Sony can try and come off looking like the good guy with some "Oh they forced us to do it" garbage, but at the end of the day they don't care about gamers. They care about money. And without publishers on board, they lose out on a lot of gamers who have to choose between the two systems. Thankfully, I am not one of those. .

If Sony doesn't have a similar DRM scheme I can totally see titles selling for quite a bit more on the PS4 than the XB1. I know if I was publishing, and knew that one system would guarantee me a cut on used sales or block them I would put my effort into making game for that first, and be willing to sell them for a lower price. Smart money is on Sony having something similar. This sort of thing is always a bit a game of chicken, but when one party reveals they're willing to do it, the other will probably follow. Also as others have said, we need to move to this model to really enable DD.