Mexico on the verge of becoming failed state

[Socio]

Mexican Asylum Applicants: Early Sign of a Failed State?

Mexican law enforcement officials are walking into U.S. ports of entry in increasing numbers to seek political asylum, and the flow may soon become a flood as Mexico's battle with the drug cartels intensifies. Our first instinct is to welcome them, but there is more at stake than humanitarian sentiments.

What happens to Mexico if all the good cops flee to the U.S. or Europe and the only ones left are working hand-in-glove with the criminals? What are the consequences if all the honest judges and prosecutors flee and only dishonest ones are left in charge of the courts? What happens if honest businessmen find it easy to flee to San Diego, Houston or Phoenix and only those who will do the cartels' money laundering are running the nation's trucking companies, farms, and banks?

The unpleasant truth is that this new refugee problem is the sign of a deep crisis not in the Mexican economy but in the Mexican political system itself. Mexico exhibits mounting signs of a "failed state," a political system that cannot satisfy the most basic conditions of civic order

Their economy is also in big trouble;

Failed States: Mexico & California

MEXICO ON VERGE OF FAILED STATE

The situation in Mexico continues to deteriorate. As their nation falls further into outright chaos, three key questions arise. 1) What happens to the reliable supply of crude oil to the United States, even as Cantarell sees further decline in oil output? 2) What happens to the plans for implementation of the North American Alliance, the economic merger of the US, Canada, and Mexico? 3) What happens to foreign mining rights to Mexican properties, under possible threat of confiscation or hiked royalty demands? These are central questions. The underlying problems are too many to cite. The wealth of the nation is too concentrated with the oligarchs, where a small group controls up to 40% of the national wealth. See Carlos Slim, the multi-billionaire, now ranked #1 by Forbes Magazine among global wealthiest, the first time a Latino has registered that distinction.

A failed nation state is the likely outcome south of the US border. Energy network attacks, growing poverty and inequality, inadequate government services, growing power of organized crime, corruption & desertion of police forces, assassination of judges and officials without consequences, and growing farmer bankruptcy are contributing to a failed system in Mexico.

Gigantic federal deficits will be the next major story coming from Mexico, along with energy strangulation by labor unions and drug lords who will continue to hold oil pipelines hostage.

I heard about this on the radio, it is a pretty damn scary scenario; if Mexico fails and their economy collapses we could see half or more of Mexico's 110 million strong population heading north as refugees.

Not only that, if the lawless take control it would bust Mexico's southern border wide open for human traffickers and drug smugglers which would mean a huge increase of Central and South American immigrants heading north, as well as from overseas and non-stop drug shipments of unprecedented purportions .

Of course our borders are about as porous as a border can get so a majority of them will make it. The US economy could not possibly handle that big of an influx of poor, homeless, out of work people in such a short period of time and it will implode like an aluminum can under the weight of a tank. We will essentially be a 3rd world nation in as little as six months of Mexico's collapse.

 

[PokerGuy]

There's a lot of focus on what can be done to keep illegal immigration in check, but the real question should be whether Mexico can be fixed such that it's millions of citizens don't feel they need to sneak across the border to the north to survive.

Just like in Venezuela, there's a lot of money coming in from oil, but it's not being distributed to the population, it's concentrated with a very few. IMO the conditions are ripe for seeing a nutcase like Chavez take over in Mexico.

 

[Socio]

Originally posted by: PokerGuy
There's a lot of focus on what can be done to keep illegal immigration in check, but the real question should be whether Mexico can be fixed such that it's millions of citizens don't feel they need to sneak across the border to the north to survive.

Just like in Venezuela, there's a lot of money coming in from oil, but it's not being distributed to the population, it's concentrated with a very few. IMO the conditions are ripe for seeing a nutcase like Chavez take over in Mexico.

There are to many cartels with too much control over vast areas of Mexico, all exceedingly well armed and none would allow a revolution to take place and a new government installed without control over it. So any nut case that takes over will likely be a cartel puppet.

 

[Nebor]

Originally posted by: Socio

Originally posted by: PokerGuy
There's a lot of focus on what can be done to keep illegal immigration in check, but the real question should be whether Mexico can be fixed such that it's millions of citizens don't feel they need to sneak across the border to the north to survive.

Just like in Venezuela, there's a lot of money coming in from oil, but it's not being distributed to the population, it's concentrated with a very few. IMO the conditions are ripe for seeing a nutcase like Chavez take over in Mexico.

There are to many cartels with too much control over vast areas of Mexico, all exceedingly well armed and none would allow a revolution to take place and a new government installed without control over it. So any nut case that takes over will likely be a cartel puppet.

You're mistaken. Mexico has had some of the strictest gun control laws in the world for more than 50 years.

 

[deathstorm78]

Having been born in a border city, lived in border towns, and being of Mexican decent(I'm American through and through though) I've had a bit more hands on with the troubles of Mexico.

I've actually been there a lot and really can't stand the place. It's really a quite poor country, and I've always known it to be so.

This may seem kind of crazy to others, but I've often thought the following would eventually happen:
USA absorbs the country of Mexico. We take a hit on our economy and resources for 1-2 decades and bring Mexico up the the status of our country and now only have a small border to enforce.

I know it's really strange, but I've just always thought it was something that would be inevitable, just because I've always know the corruption and failure of their system.

I know, I know, I'm crazy. I'll put my flamesuit on now. go ahead.

 

[StageLeft]

We take a hit on our economy and resources for 1-2 decades and bring Mexico up the the status of our country and now only have a small border to enforce.

10-20 years? Try never. Mexico's culture and political system and educational system and infrastructure are all far, far behind the US. It would irreparably damage the US.

 

[Socio]

Originally posted by: Nebor

Originally posted by: Socio

Originally posted by: PokerGuy
There's a lot of focus on what can be done to keep illegal immigration in check, but the real question should be whether Mexico can be fixed such that it's millions of citizens don't feel they need to sneak across the border to the north to survive.

Just like in Venezuela, there's a lot of money coming in from oil, but it's not being distributed to the population, it's concentrated with a very few. IMO the conditions are ripe for seeing a nutcase like Chavez take over in Mexico.

There are to many cartels with too much control over vast areas of Mexico, all exceedingly well armed and none would allow a revolution to take place and a new government installed without control over it. So any nut case that takes over will likely be a cartel puppet.

You're mistaken. Mexico has had some of the strictest gun control laws in the world for more than 50 years.

Nope;

The Mexican Drug Cartels Update

According to the late El Paso County Sheriff Leo Samaniego, drug cartels operating along the southwestern U.S. border are a ?country unto themselves? with intelligence capabilities,
weaponry and communications equipment that challenges the Border Patrol and local law enforcement. Sheriff Samaniego advised his deputies to ?back off? when they see well armed individuals from cartels and other criminal organizations.

Many of these sophisticated networks include placing spotters with high-powered binoculars and encrypted radios along smuggling routes to guide smugglers past Border Patrol and other law enforcement agencies operating along the border. A Library of Congress report on Criminal and Terrorist Activity in Mexico describes how smugglers carry on a ?technological arms race? with CBP and ICE.

Webb County, Texas Sheriff Rick Flores indicated that he is disturbed by the level of resources the cartels and criminal organizations possess and utilize against local lawenforcement noting that the cartels utilize rocket propelled grenades?automatic assault weapons, and ?level four? body armor and Kevlar helmets similar to what the U.S. military uses. Some local officials are taking steps to protect their officers from these weapons.

These criminal enterprises have seemingly unlimited money to purchase the most advanced technology and weaponry available. The cartels are able to break the encryptions on both Border Patrol and sheriffs? deputies? radios. Lookouts for the cartels, using military grade equipment, are positioned at strategic points on the U.S. side of the border to
monitor movements of U.S. law enforcement. In response, the cartels then move their cargo accordingly. The cartels use automatic assault weapons, bazookas, grenade launchers and IEDs

They also use military style vehicles with 50 cal machine gun turrets etc? or even custom build their own.

Mexican drug cartel builds James Bond-inspired Jeep Cherokee

They also have an

 

[ebaycj]

Now all it needs is a THUNDERDOME !

 

[Jhhnn]

Heh. Mexico isn't really a poor country, at all, it's just a country with extremely high and highly institutionalized inequality based on mordita, organized and institutionalized corruption. That's particularly true along the border with the US. Smuggling in both directions is a cornucopia of graft, more pronounced on the southern side. Proceeds don't remain in Mexico, but are rather exported to caribbean and european tax havens, diversified into international holdings. It's a wealth extraction machine of the highest order.

The price of a long distance phonecall to Juarez is much, much higher than the same call to El Paso, for example. That sort of difference is the basis for Carlos Slim's wealth, and the wealth of the entire Mexican oligarchy. Current levels of violence are just symptoms of some shifts in who's at the top, kinda like the gangwars of the 1920's in the US... The winners will be those who are more brutal, more efficient, to put it in capitalistic terms. Mexico and other similar states aren't failed, at all, but just different, much more rightwing in terms of operation- following the basic blueprint of oligarchies everywhere from the beginning of history. Groundroots discontent is a constant in such systems, flaring into political movements and violence whenever the parasites at the top become too successful.

 

[BoomerD]

Git teh wall built...KWIK!


Absorbing Mexico does have it's appeal, after all, Mexican citizens send BILLIONS of $$$ there every year, making it the 2nd largest source of income in the nation.

It'd be nice to get the US highway system extended to Acapulco, Cancun, or some of the other semi-tropical resort towns...and hey, maybe, just MAYBE, you could actually drink the water!

 

[Mxylplyx]

Originally posted by: Jhhnn
Heh. Mexico isn't really a poor country, at all, it's just a country with extremely high and highly institutionalized inequality based on mordita, organized and institutionalized corruption. That's particularly true along the border with the US. Smuggling in both directions is a cornucopia of graft, more pronounced on the southern side. Proceeds don't remain in Mexico, but are rather exported to caribbean and european tax havens, diversified into international holdings. It's a wealth extraction machine of the highest order.

The price of a long distance phonecall to Juarez is much, much higher than the same call to El Paso, for example. That sort of difference is the basis for Carlos Slim's wealth, and the wealth of the entire Mexican oligarchy. Current levels of violence are just symptoms of some shifts in who's at the top, kinda like the gangwars of the 1920's in the US... The winners will be those who are more brutal, more efficient, to put it in capitalistic terms. Mexico and other similar states aren't failed, at all, but just different, much more rightwing in terms of operation- following the basic blueprint of oligarchies everywhere from the beginning of history. Groundroots discontent is a constant in such systems, flaring into political movements and violence whenever the parasites at the top become too successful.

hmm...well put.

 

[K1052]

Originally posted by: Skoorb

We take a hit on our economy and resources for 1-2 decades and bring Mexico up the the status of our country and now only have a small border to enforce.

10-20 years? Try never. Mexico's culture and political system and educational system and infrastructure are all far, far behind the US. It would irreparably damage the US.

Folding Mexico into the US directly would be a poor idea (a la German Unification).

I think it would be doable to annex Mexico as a federal territory but we'd probably have to create a special classification. The border should be kept intact and transit restricted. US Federal law enforcement and the military should be given a free hand to wipe out the worst of the cartels and the corruption (take it down to a more manageable US level of corruption).

There would be a few decades of clean up involved but eventually Mexican states could be considered for US statehood.

 

[techs]

Let's see. Vincente Fox, Bush ally and political protege? Check.
Disputed Presidential election where the right wing neo-con wins? Check.
Mexico failing? Check.

 

[Engineer]

Originally posted by: K1052

Originally posted by: Skoorb

We take a hit on our economy and resources for 1-2 decades and bring Mexico up the the status of our country and now only have a small border to enforce.

10-20 years? Try never. Mexico's culture and political system and educational system and infrastructure are all far, far behind the US. It would irreparably damage the US.

Folding Mexico into the US directly would be a poor idea (a la German Unification).

I think it would be doable to annex Mexico as a federal territory but we'd probably have to create a special classification. The border should be kept intact and transit restricted. US Federal law enforcement and the military should be given a free hand to wipe out the worst of the cartels and the corruption (take it down to a more manageable US level of corruption).

There would be a few decades of clean up involved but eventually Mexican states could be considered for US statehood.

Nah, Mexico is taking over the US far faster than we could take them over!

 

[Jaskalas]

Originally posted by: Socio
Topic Title: Mexico on the verge of becoming failed state
Topic Summary: Would mean huge implications for the US

A wall sounds like the first step.

Originally posted by: deathstorm78
This may seem kind of crazy to others, but I've often thought the following would eventually happen:
USA absorbs the country of Mexico. We take a hit on our economy and resources for 1-2 decades and bring Mexico up the the status of our country and now only have a small border to enforce.

What you ask for is a great deal of bloodshed and civil war. There are men with power in Mexico who will not surrender it without first dying.

 

[ElFenix]

they have oyul ryet?

 

[maddogchen]

Originally posted by: techs
Let's see. Vincente Fox, Bush ally and political protege? Check.
Disputed Presidential election where the right wing neo-con wins? Check.
Mexico failing? Check.

Fox hasn't been president since 2006. Its Felipe de Jesus CALDERON Hinojosa now.

 

[Ktulu]

Originally posted by: Nebor

Originally posted by: Socio

Originally posted by: PokerGuy
There's a lot of focus on what can be done to keep illegal immigration in check, but the real question should be whether Mexico can be fixed such that it's millions of citizens don't feel they need to sneak across the border to the north to survive.

Just like in Venezuela, there's a lot of money coming in from oil, but it's not being distributed to the population, it's concentrated with a very few. IMO the conditions are ripe for seeing a nutcase like Chavez take over in Mexico.

There are to many cartels with too much control over vast areas of Mexico, all exceedingly well armed and none would allow a revolution to take place and a new government installed without control over it. So any nut case that takes over will likely be a cartel puppet.

You're mistaken. Mexico has had some of the strictest gun control laws in the world for more than 50 years.

HAHAHAHA I almost forgot how well gun control laws work at keeping guns out of the hands of criminals.

 

[Socio]

Originally posted by: K1052

Originally posted by: Skoorb

We take a hit on our economy and resources for 1-2 decades and bring Mexico up the the status of our country and now only have a small border to enforce.

10-20 years? Try never. Mexico's culture and political system and educational system and infrastructure are all far, far behind the US. It would irreparably damage the US.

Folding Mexico into the US directly would be a poor idea (a la German Unification).

I think it would be doable to annex Mexico as a federal territory but we'd probably have to create a special classification. The border should be kept intact and transit restricted. US Federal law enforcement and the military should be given a free hand to wipe out the worst of the cartels and the corruption (take it down to a more manageable US level of corruption).

There would be a few decades of clean up involved but eventually Mexican states could be considered for US statehood.

Annexation would be very difficult to do, it would be like Afghanistan part two and instead of terrorists and warlords it would be cartels and drug lords in a hostile environment as 31 percent of Mexicans already consider America an enemy.

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: Nebor

Originally posted by: Socio

Originally posted by: PokerGuy
There's a lot of focus on what can be done to keep illegal immigration in check, but the real question should be whether Mexico can be fixed such that it's millions of citizens don't feel they need to sneak across the border to the north to survive.

Just like in Venezuela, there's a lot of money coming in from oil, but it's not being distributed to the population, it's concentrated with a very few. IMO the conditions are ripe for seeing a nutcase like Chavez take over in Mexico.

There are to many cartels with too much control over vast areas of Mexico, all exceedingly well armed and none would allow a revolution to take place and a new government installed without control over it. So any nut case that takes over will likely be a cartel puppet.

You're mistaken. Mexico has had some of the strictest gun control laws in the world for more than 50 years.

Which is proven, there are no crimes in Mexico like there are no homosexuals in Iran.

 

[GTaudiophile]

Originally posted by: deathstorm78
Having been born in a border city, lived in border towns, and being of Mexican decent(I'm American through and through though) I've had a bit more hands on with the troubles of Mexico.

I've actually been there a lot and really can't stand the place. It's really a quite poor country, and I've always known it to be so.

This may seem kind of crazy to others, but I've often thought the following would eventually happen:
USA absorbs the country of Mexico. We take a hit on our economy and resources for 1-2 decades and bring Mexico up the the status of our country and now only have a small border to enforce.

I know it's really strange, but I've just always thought it was something that would be inevitable, just because I've always know the corruption and failure of their system.

I know, I know, I'm crazy. I'll put my flamesuit on now. go ahead.

ROFL! East Germany was not as bad as Mexico and yet German unification is still an ongoing process in many respects some 20 years after November 9, 1989.

 

[Socio]

Originally posted by: Socio

Originally posted by: Nebor

Originally posted by: Socio

Originally posted by: PokerGuy
There's a lot of focus on what can be done to keep illegal immigration in check, but the real question should be whether Mexico can be fixed such that it's millions of citizens don't feel they need to sneak across the border to the north to survive.

Just like in Venezuela, there's a lot of money coming in from oil, but it's not being distributed to the population, it's concentrated with a very few. IMO the conditions are ripe for seeing a nutcase like Chavez take over in Mexico.

There are to many cartels with too much control over vast areas of Mexico, all exceedingly well armed and none would allow a revolution to take place and a new government installed without control over it. So any nut case that takes over will likely be a cartel puppet.

You're mistaken. Mexico has had some of the strictest gun control laws in the world for more than 50 years.

Nope;

The Mexican Drug Cartels Update

According to the late El Paso County Sheriff Leo Samaniego, drug cartels operating along the southwestern U.S. border are a ?country unto themselves? with intelligence capabilities,
weaponry and communications equipment that challenges the Border Patrol and local law enforcement. Sheriff Samaniego advised his deputies to ?back off? when they see well armed individuals from cartels and other criminal organizations.

Many of these sophisticated networks include placing spotters with high-powered binoculars and encrypted radios along smuggling routes to guide smugglers past Border Patrol and other law enforcement agencies operating along the border. A Library of Congress report on Criminal and Terrorist Activity in Mexico describes how smugglers carry on a ?technological arms race? with CBP and ICE.

Webb County, Texas Sheriff Rick Flores indicated that he is disturbed by the level of resources the cartels and criminal organizations possess and utilize against local lawenforcement noting that the cartels utilize rocket propelled grenades?automatic assault weapons, and ?level four? body armor and Kevlar helmets similar to what the U.S. military uses. Some local officials are taking steps to protect their officers from these weapons.

These criminal enterprises have seemingly unlimited money to purchase the most advanced technology and weaponry available. The cartels are able to break the encryptions on both Border Patrol and sheriffs? deputies? radios. Lookouts for the cartels, using military grade equipment, are positioned at strategic points on the U.S. side of the border to
monitor movements of U.S. law enforcement. In response, the cartels then move their cargo accordingly. The cartels use automatic assault weapons, bazookas, grenade launchers and IEDs

They also use military style vehicles with 50 cal machine gun turrets etc? or even custom build their own.

Mexican drug cartel builds James Bond-inspired Jeep Cherokee

I forgot to mention they have submarines to!

Mexico intercepts suspected drug submarine

The Mexican navy has intercepted a submarine carrying a suspected drug shipment in Pacific waters off the coast of Oaxaca state, a navy spokesman said on Wednesday.

 

[Nebor]

Originally posted by: K1052

Originally posted by: Skoorb

We take a hit on our economy and resources for 1-2 decades and bring Mexico up the the status of our country and now only have a small border to enforce.

10-20 years? Try never. Mexico's culture and political system and educational system and infrastructure are all far, far behind the US. It would irreparably damage the US.

Folding Mexico into the US directly would be a poor idea (a la German Unification).

I think it would be doable to annex Mexico as a federal territory but we'd probably have to create a special classification. The border should be kept intact and transit restricted. US Federal law enforcement and the military should be given a free hand to wipe out the worst of the cartels and the corruption (take it down to a more manageable US level of corruption).

There would be a few decades of clean up involved but eventually Mexican states could be considered for US statehood.

I like this idea. It would put an end to our illegal immigration problem.

 

[Moonbeam]

Mexico can become a part of California.

 

[LLCOOLJ]

Socio doesn't seem to like people of color. Every thread I read from him it's either about the evil Mexicans or in his words, us racist Blacks. Seems he's the one who has a problem with others of a different race.