Medicare Drug Benefit . . . lies, damn lies, and statistics

BaliBabyDoc

Lifer
Jan 20, 2001
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Cost estimates vary but suffice it to say the initial 'estimate' of $400B over 10 years was a high-fiber load of epic proportions designed to slide it past Republicans that didn't want to vote for it and Democrats that would have voted for anything.

The real ballpark at passage was north of $500B and current estimates range 700-800B . . . accordingly it should probably be renamed the Pharmaceutical Company Subsidy Act, Mother of All Corporate Welfare Act, or How to Blow a Hole in the Budget with a Midnight Vote Act.

Regardless, this turd is here for at least another election cycle. So let's look at what the old farts are saying about the program and how Republicans and Democrats are spinning.

Medical News Today
One survey in April showed overall most old codgers were getting their daily fix with few problems . . . something north of 80%. Amongst enrolles 48% had a favorable opinion of the program.

A different survey noted 28% had a highly favorable view and an additional 35% had a somewhat favorable view.

The top poll reached a satisfaction level of 65%.

As for costs in APRIL, 42% said they were paying less for meds and 19% were paying more.
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I cannot find the polling data but a mid-summer tally IIRC noted approval rates had surged to over 40% very satisfied and an additional 30% being satisfied with the program. Naturally, CMS/McClellan/GOP pols were crowing about those numbers.

AP via Yahoo
Democrats (and other left-center interest groups) were saying here comes the doughnut. The coverage gap during which people with high drug costs would have to shoulder the ENTIRE cost of their med regimen PLUS continue paying premiums despite not getting any coverage. Early (partisan) estimates were for 7 million but it looks like it will be closer to 3.5m. Anyway, the number of people hitting the doughnut will ramp up through the fall . . . just in time for elections.

AP via Yahoo
Naturally, Republicans are clamoring to find a way to blunt the fallout so they are weakening import restrictions on Canadian meds and are undoubtedly heartened (if not colluded) by WalMart's program . . . started in old voter-heavy Florida.

I mention the lies, damn lies, and statistics b/c the favorable ratings on Medicare Part D rely on the same subterfuge as the cost estimate for the program. In essence, you ask people how well it works . . . during a period where they are getting something for nothing. Why? Because even though the doughnut will 'likely' affect less than 10% of beneficiaries . . . they will be a LOUD 10% when they have to pay something for nothing during the last 3 months of the year. Further, unless WalMart's program is HUGELY successful, the number of beneficiaries that get a Krispy Kreme initiation will increase due to an aging, sickly population and the unsustainable inflation in drug costs.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
At a news conference, Rep. Janice Schakowsky (news, bio, voting record), D-Ill, read a letter from a constituent, Pauline Metzger-Aronson of Morton Grove, Ill.
"All I know is that last month what I paid $20.00 for cost me $96.12 this month, and that was only on one prescription. What adds insult to injury is that we must now also pay the premium while we lose our benefits," Metzger-Aronson wrote.

Rep. Bill Thomas, R-Calif., said Democrats were trying to scare and confuse people.
"So, with all the success of the new drug benefit, why are Democrats continuing to attack the program? Because they are terrified that Republicans will get credit for this tremendously successful program," said Thomas, chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee.


 

Craig234

Lifer
May 1, 2006
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It's simple. The republicans are utter sellouts to the corporate donors, with the pharmaceutical industry their largest donor, and this bill is to pay them back out of the taxpayers' pocket.

It doesn't get more clear than when the republican leadership went to war to make sure that the clause allowing the government to negotiate lower prices was not put in the bill.

The democrats simply want affordable drugs for citizens, in a system with fair profit for the drug manufacturers. Elect them and let them fix the policy.
 

LunarRay

Diamond Member
Mar 2, 2003
9,993
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Originally posted by: BaliBabyDoc
Originally posted by: fitzov
FDR was the greatest president ever.

Maybe . . . but he sure left a boondoggle of a social program.

This may be true... However, consider the state of affairs in this country if there was no 'safety net' for those who's assets are limited and become disabled for one reason or another... Don't we as a nation have some responsibility to care for them and the family they supported when they worked..
Additionally, in a climate where aged workers either can't any longer or can't find employment don't they deserve getting back a stipend based on their contribution.. it is a social security system intended to insure every worker can exist after their working years end.. not everyone can afford to save or invest cuz they don't all have 'disposable' income to do so..
Health care for these folks should be insured cuz they need it the most.. perhaps facilities associated with University Med Schools or like that would be fine.. but we do owe this because we are that kind of people... I think
 

Craig234

Lifer
May 1, 2006
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His social programs were not boondoggles. People are short sighted when they fail to recognize how the people are more productive with those programs - society benefits.

We seem to go in cycles where liberals put in economic programs that make the country strong and wealthy, and the conservatives put in policies to grab the wealth for the few.

Then in reaction to the disasters - the gilded age, the great depression, the George Bush disasters he's setting up - the country returns to the liberals again to fix things.
 

alchemize

Lifer
Mar 24, 2000
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Part D was crap. Both parties are to blame, repubs more than dems since bush signed it. Oh well, maybe I can pass the debt along to my children somehow.
 

smack Down

Diamond Member
Sep 10, 2005
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I really don't think a good satasfication rating for old farts is good. No one should ever be very satisfied with their welfare. If they are it means it is time to cut there benifits.
 

senseamp

Lifer
Feb 5, 2006
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Yep, the biggest expansion of government programs in recent history was brought to you by the GOP.
It's hilarious. There is no chance in hell a Democrat would have gotten away with expanding government this much. Almost makes me want to keep GOP in power. I figure give them a few more years, we'll have universal healthcare. :D I bet those same Republicans who crucified Hillary would vote for it if Bush proposed it. :)
 

DealMonkey

Lifer
Nov 25, 2001
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The old codgers would probably save more per month buying their (generic) drugs @ Wal-Mart vs what they save under "new & improved" Medicare. And tax-payers wouldn't have to foot the bill, I might add...
 

ProfJohn

Lifer
Jul 28, 2006
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This program is one of the big reasons Bush is not very popular with his own base. That is why his approval ratings are so low, both Republicans and Democrats have reasons to be unhappy with him.

Unfortunately, we Republicans have no other choice than to support him and GOP in the fall elections, because we know the alternative is worse.

The question is will 2008 bring out a ?real? conservative ala Ronald Reagan (small government, lower taxes, strong on defense) or another semi-conservative like Bush.
 

Strk

Lifer
Nov 23, 2003
10,198
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Originally posted by: ProfJohn
This program is one of the big reasons Bush is not very popular with his own base. That is why his approval ratings are so low, both Republicans and Democrats have reasons to be unhappy with him.

Unfortunately, we Republicans have no other choice than to support him and GOP in the fall elections, because we know the alternative is worse.

The question is will 2008 bring out a ?real? conservative ala Ronald Reagan (small government, lower taxes, strong on defense) or another semi-conservative like Bush.

What exactly is even semi-conservative with Bush? Because he'll oppose gay marriage every two years?
 

BaliBabyDoc

Lifer
Jan 20, 2001
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I love the revisionists even with Reagan dead and buried they continue to make up new 'history.'

1) Last I checked government grew during the 80s. The only time in the past three decades that it grew faster was . . . oh yeah . . . Bush43.

2) Reagan wanted to ditch several departments including Education. Curiously, the GOPie Congress and Bush that allegedly worship Reagan's 'legacy' . . . did what at DOE?

3) Reagan certainly gets credit for signing tax cut bills passed by Democrats. He also signed profligate spending bills as well.

4) Strong on national defense?:roll: Star Wars turned out well. So did Lebanon. USSR collapsed under its own mismanagement. But we did kick mad butt in Grenada.
 

senseamp

Lifer
Feb 5, 2006
35,787
6,195
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Real conservatism is dead. Accept it, love it.
It's easy to talk like a real conservative. It's impossible to govern like one. Americans just love their social programs as much as they love talking about small government :D
 

Craig234

Lifer
May 1, 2006
38,548
348
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This is the single most wrong thing I have read in thousands of words in hundreds of posts:

Unfortunately, we Republicans have no other choice than to support him and GOP in the fall elections, because we know the alternative is worse.

That's exactly how the crooks manipulate people into voting for them, by convincing them of that lie. Sure beats actually having to do good for the people.

Please list the top 5 or 10 things you think would be so terribly worse if the democrats were elected - and then 5 things that would be better?

BaliBabyDoc, one error: Grenada was a pretty bad operation, took longer than expected, and was actual a driving factor for major reform of the military.
 

bctbct

Diamond Member
Dec 22, 2005
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Originally posted by: ProfJohn



Unfortunately, we Republicans have no other choice than to support him and GOP in the fall elections, because we know the alternative is worse.


Please describe worse because it cant get worse than war, spending, huge energy costs, flat economy, open borders, and a tanked foreign policy.

I know the BJ had a huge impact on the world around me[sarcasm]
 

WHAMPOM

Diamond Member
Feb 28, 2006
7,628
183
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Originally posted by: BaliBabyDoc
Originally posted by: fitzov
FDR was the greatest president ever.

Maybe . . . but he sure left a boondoggle of a social program.

Only because of the increased average life-span we injoy now. Their actuarial rates worked out seventy years ago.