Zogby is erratic and lost any credibility after 2004. Polls are usually best for showing trendlines but because zogby is so erratic you can't make anything from that either.
Zogby is erratic and lost any credibility after 2004. Polls are usually best for showing trendlines but because zogby is so erratic you can't make anything from that either.
Hey genius, Gallup does NOT have obama plus 2. That was a likely voter scenario based on 2004.
You know nothing.
Give up on the invasion of Cuba, Techs. Put down the pipe. Georgie and Dickie-poo are laying low, letting Sidney and Sarah run the slime machine.
McCain isn't surging anywhere ATM, and has latched onto any desperate song and dance routine he can muster. Right now, it's about the whole "spread the wealth around" bit, which only sells to the base. He's also selling pie in the sky promises about housing, "spreading the wealth around" himself, on a much grander scale... He raves on about how raising taxes in a downturn is the worst thing, and then promises to put the govt on a starvation diet, which is even worse...
With any luck at all, he'll surge his way back to Arizona on Nov 5...
McCain isn't surging anywhere ATM, and has latched onto any desperate song and dance routine he can muster. Right now, it's about the whole "spread the wealth around" bit, which only sells to the base. He's also selling pie in the sky promises about housing, "spreading the wealth around" himself, on a much grander scale... He raves on about how raising taxes in a downturn is the worst thing, and then promises to put the govt on a starvation diet, which is even worse...
With any luck at all, he'll surge his way back to Arizona on Nov 5...
- Sep 26, 2000
- 28,561
- 4
- 0
In 2004 Zogby called it for Kerry as soon as the polls closed.
Which could indicate he is actually understating McCains support.
The real importan polls, imo, will come out next weekend. They will take into account the effect of the 3rd debate, the effect of Joe the Plumber, the effect of, hopefully some stability in the market. So by next Saturday for Monday we will know where the polls really stand.
ProfJohn
Lifer
- Jul 28, 2006
- 18,251
- 8
- 0
You throw out the +2 and you still end up near +5.
Also, the CBS poll has a break down of 37% Democrat and 29% Republicans a nine point difference.
Rasmussen uses a 39% D and 33% R a 6 point difference.
In 2000 and 2004 the final result was 37D v. 37R.
In 2006 it was 38D v. 36R.
A one point difference party make up is close to a 1 point difference in the final poll outcome.
If the party make up on election day is similar to 2006 then Rasmussen is off by 4 points and CBS is off by 7.
If the Democrats have added 2 more points to their party advantage in the past two years Rasmussen is still off 2 and it is a 3 point race.
A big problem with these polls is that we don't know what the make up is going to be like on election day. For every point you are over or under for a candidate you add or subtract a point from their total. Keep that in mind when you look at poll results. Most of the ones showing a huge +9 or +14 lead for Obama have the party make up way off compared to recent elections.
Also, the CBS poll has a break down of 37% Democrat and 29% Republicans a nine point difference.
Rasmussen uses a 39% D and 33% R a 6 point difference.
In 2000 and 2004 the final result was 37D v. 37R.
In 2006 it was 38D v. 36R.
A one point difference party make up is close to a 1 point difference in the final poll outcome.
If the party make up on election day is similar to 2006 then Rasmussen is off by 4 points and CBS is off by 7.
If the Democrats have added 2 more points to their party advantage in the past two years Rasmussen is still off 2 and it is a 3 point race.
A big problem with these polls is that we don't know what the make up is going to be like on election day. For every point you are over or under for a candidate you add or subtract a point from their total. Keep that in mind when you look at poll results. Most of the ones showing a huge +9 or +14 lead for Obama have the party make up way off compared to recent elections.
Guys, there s a very small chance the "drive for 5", "next stop for oil $200", and the "Hawaii where Obama leads by 30+ points is a red state" guy could be wrong. It's very very rare, but it's possible.
You're really grasping at straws aren't you? Do you expect the turnout demographics to be the same as 2004?
Throckmorton
Lifer
- Aug 23, 2007
- 16,830
- 3
- 0
ProfJohn
Lifer
- Jul 28, 2006
- 18,251
- 8
- 0
Nope, I am expecting along the lines of 39D 35R perhaps.
The Dems picked up 2 points between 2004 and 2006 so perhaps they have picked up 2 more in the last two years. But that is hard to guess. The Democrat congress has really sucked so it is hard to tell what, if any, progress the Dems have made.
It is important to note that although Obama's lead is hovering around 5-6, he has an electoral college advantage that makes him really +7 or so. Also he has consistently led throughout the election, with the only exception being McCain's convention. So it seems highly improbable that the race would shift in his favor, even though Obama's lead seems small to some.
Also, early voting means he needs to gain an even larger margin to overcome those who already cast their ballot in a pro-Obama climate.
Also, early voting means he needs to gain an even larger margin to overcome those who already cast their ballot in a pro-Obama climate.
For all the griping about the "Democratic congress" you guys are doing (did all the Republicans go on vacation or something?), it's far more telling to look at the polls for the 2008 congressional races than the Presidential race...and whatever the outcome of the Presidential race, polls show that it's VERY likely that Democrats will substantially increase their majority in both houses. Which tells me that the voters don't quite feel the way you keep suggesting they feel. Congressional approval polls are popular with folks looking to bash Democrats, but ultimately they are pretty useless since "Congress" is a good scapegoat and people almost always approve of their personal representative more than they approve of Congress as a whole. Who people actually vote for says a lot, and it looks like that's going to be mostly Democrats.
And that's really the important point here. National polls are pretty much meaningless since we don't elect our President that way. They're a good barometer of popularity of a candidate, but not very good at telling you who the next President will be.
Looking state by state is far more effective at predicting the winner, and reveals a much different picture. Nationally Obama and McCain might be relatively close, but if you break down the polls by state, McCain is in big trouble. The aggregate poll results (from electoral-vote.com) as of today suggest that McCain would have to win ALL of the toss-up states plus some more solid blue states to win the election.
Edit: And the trend lines for the polls in the individual states can be pretty enlightening as well. The toss-up states I mentioned are ALL trending Obama. McCain will have to reverse Obama's momentum to pull out a victory.
I've been following the electoral map and polling religiously on great sites like fivethirtyeight.com. Let me just clarify on the state of the race at this point in time.
There is no question the polls will tighten between now and Election Day. Did you really think Obama was going to hold a +11 pt lead in Gallup and other National trackers? C'mon that's just not realistic, this country is still a divided electorate.....no candidate is going to be getting more than 50-55% of the vote. What's important is Obama has consistently polled between 50-52%, McCain is the one who's poll numbers keep fluctuating between the low to mid 40's. This is important because it means Obama's support is solidifying, McCain has no more debates or real opportunities to pick off voters he desperately needs.
Now, as for the electoral map. We must all remember Obama has a firewall in the Southwest. NM, CO, and NV are all looking like they will go blue this year. The Hispanic vote is what might save Obama as they are voting nearly 70% for him, it's going to be very difficult for McCain to break through here.
It doesn't matter what happens in FL, OH, VA, or NC if Obama wins these three. This is why McCain isn't wasting time in FL, although Palin is, he knows that if he doesn't steal at least one blue state like PA or MI he is done. He doesn't have the time to waste in FL, if he has lost in FL he has already lost this election.
An expose on Obama's campaign must be done after this election is over, he truly has masterminded this election in a way I have not seen since Clinton in '92.
There is no question the polls will tighten between now and Election Day. Did you really think Obama was going to hold a +11 pt lead in Gallup and other National trackers? C'mon that's just not realistic, this country is still a divided electorate.....no candidate is going to be getting more than 50-55% of the vote. What's important is Obama has consistently polled between 50-52%, McCain is the one who's poll numbers keep fluctuating between the low to mid 40's. This is important because it means Obama's support is solidifying, McCain has no more debates or real opportunities to pick off voters he desperately needs.
Now, as for the electoral map. We must all remember Obama has a firewall in the Southwest. NM, CO, and NV are all looking like they will go blue this year. The Hispanic vote is what might save Obama as they are voting nearly 70% for him, it's going to be very difficult for McCain to break through here.
It doesn't matter what happens in FL, OH, VA, or NC if Obama wins these three. This is why McCain isn't wasting time in FL, although Palin is, he knows that if he doesn't steal at least one blue state like PA or MI he is done. He doesn't have the time to waste in FL, if he has lost in FL he has already lost this election.
An expose on Obama's campaign must be done after this election is over, he truly has masterminded this election in a way I have not seen since Clinton in '92.
SP33Demon
Lifer
- Jun 22, 2001
- 27,929
- 142
- 106
MI, McCain has pulled out of. That state isn't flipping because of the UAW's efforts. PA is gone too, McCain is trailing by double digits. Obama just needs Iowa + VA + Kerry's states = 272 EV to win which should happen (although a little worried about VA). If he doesn't win VA, then he needs CO + either NM or NV = 273 EV. The rest of the battleground states are McCain must wins, he loses just one and the election is over.
Lots of wishful thinking on the Right, that's for sure.
Progressives are highly motivated, like hungry piranhas when they sense some commotion in the water- everybody wants a bite out of the soon to be carcass of the republican party. Voters on the west coast and in Hawaii will still turn out in droves, even when they already know it's over, just to have a taste... to be part of a historic shift.
Conservatives are chanting USA!USA!USA!USA! as if it means something, and swing voters are sick of their ravings...
It's highly likely we'll see Obama with at least 325 electoral votes, Dems with 56 senators and 250 house members, and the rightwing lootocracy cast out on their keesters...
Progressives are highly motivated, like hungry piranhas when they sense some commotion in the water- everybody wants a bite out of the soon to be carcass of the republican party. Voters on the west coast and in Hawaii will still turn out in droves, even when they already know it's over, just to have a taste... to be part of a historic shift.
Conservatives are chanting USA!USA!USA!USA! as if it means something, and swing voters are sick of their ravings...
It's highly likely we'll see Obama with at least 325 electoral votes, Dems with 56 senators and 250 house members, and the rightwing lootocracy cast out on their keesters...
Projo, have you seen the congressional race rankings? Have you seen the $15m loan the dems had to take because there are so many competitive races?
Actually if Obama doesn't win Virgina he still has a shot with Missouri apparently.
Obama won't need Virginia or North Carolina if he wins Mizzo.
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