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McCain surges. New polls show him within a hair of victory?

techs

Lifer
Sep 26, 2000
28,567
3
0
http://www.realclearpolitics.c...cain_vs_obama-225.html

Look at the Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby on 10/17 and the Rassmussen on 10/16. Both show a 4 point lead for Obama.
Democrats are delusional if they think this election is over. Four points? And this is the first election where a black man is running for President?
Democrats couldn't believe Bushes strategy in 2004 of steering radically right and pandering to the religious right wing could possibly result in victory. But it did.
REMEMBER what Karl Rove said? We added up the numbers and we realized it wasn't about appealing to the independents. Independents are just that. Independent. They are either gonna vote for or against us based on more than the campaign. They vote policies.

Now look at the electoral map of 2004 when Bush won:
http://www.realclearpolitics.c...bama_vs_mccain/?map=11
Tell me you are sure of Virginia and Ohio switching Democrat? Ohio is razor thin and Virgiania saw a 7.5 percent difference in the vote between the polls and Wilder when he ran.

Now here's my point. The ONE state McCain MUST have is Florida. AMAZINGLY he has not campaigned in Florida in over 2.5 months. That's a WTF that should scare the cr*p out of Democrats. Not campaiging in the ONE state he absolutely has to have? And, if he DOES win it than Obama has to take away MORE than just a single major state from McCain that Bush won in 2004.

What does the McCain campaign know about Florida that we don't know?
If McCain wins Florida, look at the map of 2004. Obama needs to flip not just one state but at least TWO states. Even with Virginia Obama loses. Do McCains pollsters see something in Florida? Will the Republicans launch some kind of legal action on the vote just before election day to boost McCain?

Cr*p! Dmcowen may be right. Its all in the electoral college. And its all in Florida.
And yet McCain hasn't campaigned there in 2.5 months?
While the McCain campaign may look like its the Titanic, can anyone doubt there are very highly intelligent people running it?
wtf?


 

XZeroII

Lifer
Jun 30, 2001
12,572
0
0
It doesn't matter who wins. I bet we could elect a bag of cabbage to be president and it would do no better nor worse than either of these two clowns.
 

Dr. Zaus

Lifer
Oct 16, 2008
11,770
347
126
Will the Republicans launch some kind of legal action on the vote just before election day to boost McCain?
I am, again, incredulous. Base-bolstering propaganda from the democratic party, like all this acorn silliness from the right.
 

chess9

Elite member
Apr 15, 2000
7,749
0
0
If McCain is picking up two voters in Texas, and Obama is picking up one voter in Ohio, Obama wins. If McCain is picking up steam in Ohio, and the other battleground states, then McCain may win. Right now, I think Obama will still squeek by. However, we had an Obama sign on the yard for a month with no McCain signs until today when a McCain sign went up. One of my tennis buddies put it in his yard. :) So, we'll see....

Just make sure you vote. Last election I drove a disabled Marine buddy of mine to the polls so he could vote for Bush. ;)

-Robert
 

Lemon law

Lifer
Nov 6, 2005
20,991
2
0
Much of the Obama lead is due to the bad economic situation. As long as the markets stabilize and no more bad news comes down the pike, the public will stop blaming McCain as much
and McCain will narrow the gap. But in the end, I think the Obama campaign money will still bury McCain and more bad economic news will come out.

Al Sadr is resuming his anti-American grumblings and is likely to kill the recent security pact, Afghanistan is still is rocky shape, and if violence flares up in either place, its again going to
look bad for McCain. Too many people know we have elections, and they will time their actions to get the most effects.
 

Dr. Zaus

Lifer
Oct 16, 2008
11,770
347
126
Originally posted by: Lemon law
Much of the Obama lead is due to the bad economic situation. As long as the markets stabilize and no more bad news comes down the pike, the public will stop blaming McCain as much
and McCain will narrow the gap. But in the end, I think the Obama campaign money will still bury McCain and more bad economic news will come out.

Al Sadr is resuming his anti-American grumblings and is likely to kill the recent security pact, Afghanistan is still is rocky shape, and if violence flares up in either place, its again going to
look bad for McCain. Too many people know we have elections, and they will time their actions to get the most effects.

Why wouldn't focusing on international issues help McCain?
 

Engineer

Elite Member
Oct 9, 1999
39,255
699
126
The average for the last three days has been 6.8 on Thursday, 6.9 on Friday, and 6.8 today (so far). Not sure what surge you're talking about.
 

techs

Lifer
Sep 26, 2000
28,567
3
0
Originally posted by: DixyCrat
Originally posted by: Lemon law
Much of the Obama lead is due to the bad economic situation. As long as the markets stabilize and no more bad news comes down the pike, the public will stop blaming McCain as much
and McCain will narrow the gap. But in the end, I think the Obama campaign money will still bury McCain and more bad economic news will come out.

Al Sadr is resuming his anti-American grumblings and is likely to kill the recent security pact, Afghanistan is still is rocky shape, and if violence flares up in either place, its again going to
look bad for McCain. Too many people know we have elections, and they will time their actions to get the most effects.

Why wouldn't focusing on international issues help McCain?
Which makes an invasion of Cuba a distinct possibility. It puts international issues on the front page, and forces Obama to either support it or appear un-American.
 

Red Dawn

Elite Member
Jun 4, 2001
57,551
3
0
Originally posted by: techs
Which makes an invasion of Cuba a distinct possibility. It puts international issues on the front page, and forces Obama to either support it or appear un-American.
You need to change your medication.
 

techs

Lifer
Sep 26, 2000
28,567
3
0
Originally posted by: Red Dawn
Originally posted by: techs
Which makes an invasion of Cuba a distinct possibility. It puts international issues on the front page, and forces Obama to either support it or appear un-American.
You need to change your medication.

Gee, when Castro died it was considered a distinct possibilty. So why not now , when it might have very positive influence on the election?

 

StageLeft

No Lifer
Sep 29, 2000
70,214
2
0
Originally posted by: techs
Originally posted by: Red Dawn
Originally posted by: techs
Which makes an invasion of Cuba a distinct possibility. It puts international issues on the front page, and forces Obama to either support it or appear un-American.
You need to change your medication.

Gee, when Castro died it was considered a distinct possibilty. So why not now , when it might have very positive influence on the election?
You are simply making things up now. What if Bush sends nukes to North Korea, how will that change it? What if he embargos Venezuela and seizes their oil or sends bombers over Moscow?

 

Red Dawn

Elite Member
Jun 4, 2001
57,551
3
0
Originally posted by: techs
Originally posted by: Red Dawn
Originally posted by: techs
Which makes an invasion of Cuba a distinct possibility. It puts international issues on the front page, and forces Obama to either support it or appear un-American.
You need to change your medication.

Gee, when Castro died it was considered a distinct possibilty. So why not now , when it might have very positive influence on the election?
Because it would be extremely stupid, kind of like predicting it would happen weeks before the election.

 

Stoneburner

Diamond Member
May 29, 2003
3,493
0
76
What the fuck is this? A zogby poll? really, you're panicking because of a zogby poll? Have you seen how badly it's jumped around the last .... forever?

ANd Obama has already flipped NM and IA. He only needs CO or VA or NV and keep the kerry states. McCain is not ignoring florida, it's one of his most heavily advertised states and it's a state where he has a substantial number of offices. You also forget MCCAIN NEEDS OHIO AS WELL. And NC AND VA. He needs to keep EVERYTHING.
 

SP33Demon

Lifer
Jun 22, 2001
27,935
141
106
From my other post:
www.pollster.com If McCain wins all the battleground states (yellow = OH, IN, WV, NC, MO, ND, NV) = only 225. Let's say he wins FL in addition. That's still only 252. Where are the other 18 EV coming from? FL would be a big win for McCain, but it still doesn't guarantee any type of victory at all. In addition to FL, he would still have to take 18 of 66 EV's that are Lean Obama PLUS winning ALL CURRENT BATTLEGROUND STATES. That would be a monumental upset. I bet McCain still wishes he had Pennsylvania (21EV - out of reach now), or even Lean Obama VA (13EV - 6.X% lead) + Lean Obama Minnesota (10EV - 5.X% lead). We'll see.
 

Dr. Zaus

Lifer
Oct 16, 2008
11,770
347
126
Originally posted by: Skoorb
Originally posted by: techs
Originally posted by: Red Dawn
Originally posted by: techs
Which makes an invasion of Cuba a distinct possibility. It puts international issues on the front page, and forces Obama to either support it or appear un-American.
You need to change your medication.

Gee, when Castro died it was considered a distinct possibilty. So why not now , when it might have very positive influence on the election?
You are simply making things up now. What if Bush sends nukes to North Korea, how will that change it? What if he embargos Venezuela and seizes their oil or sends bombers over Moscow?
I heard that the ninja-pirates are going to institute marital law in south Florida so as to stage an invasion of Cuba so that we can all get free medical coverage.... and sell it to the highest bidder...

we will then rigg that bid and give all that medical coverage to Venezuela, which will turn out to be poisoned, and we will then invade so that the price of oil goes UP assuring that McCain wins.
But that?s just what I heard on the intertubes.


 

techs

Lifer
Sep 26, 2000
28,567
3
0
Originally posted by: Stoneburner
What the fuck is this? A zogby poll? really, you're panicking because of a zogby poll? Have you seen how badly it's jumped around the last .... forever?

ANd Obama has already flipped NM and IA. He only needs CO or VA or NV and keep the kerry states. McCain is not ignoring florida, it's one of his most heavily advertised states and it's a state where he has a substantial number of offices. You also forget MCCAIN NEEDS OHIO AS WELL. And NC AND VA. He needs to keep EVERYTHING.
I will try and get you the link, but iirc didn't Zogby score high in accuracy?
Darn, i posted on this, but can't recall.

EDIT:
Here it is:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com...bel/pollster%20ratings

Zogby scores in the middle. The Zogby interactive scores in the bottom of accuracy.
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,912
46
91
www.alienbabeltech.com
Originally posted by: techs
Democrats couldn't believe Bushes strategy in 2004 of steering radically right and pandering to the religious right wing could possibly result in victory. But it did.

REMEMBER what Karl Rove said? We added up the numbers and we realized it wasn't about appealing to the independents. Independents are just that. Independent. They are either gonna vote for or against us based on more than the campaign. They vote policies.

Now look at the electoral map of 2004 when Bush won:
http://www.realclearpolitics.c...bama_vs_mccain/?map=11

Tell me you are sure of Virginia and Ohio switching Democrat?

Ohio is razor thin and Virgiania saw a 7.5 percent difference in the vote between the polls and Wilder when he ran.

Now here's my point. The ONE state McCain MUST have is Florida. AMAZINGLY he has not campaigned in Florida in over 2.5 months. That's a WTF that should scare the cr*p out of Democrats. Not campaiging in the ONE state he absolutely has to have? And, if he DOES win it than Obama has to take away MORE than just a single major state from McCain that Bush won in 2004.

What does the McCain campaign know about Florida that we don't know?

If McCain wins Florida, look at the map of 2004.

Obama needs to flip not just one state but at least TWO states.

Even with Virginia Obama loses.

Cr*p! Dmcowen may be right.
Like I said unless Obama wins North Carolina McCain doesn't even have to campaign.

Like I said I hope I am wrong which is very very rare.

Crossing fingers for very very rare.
 

techs

Lifer
Sep 26, 2000
28,567
3
0
Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Originally posted by: techs
Democrats couldn't believe Bushes strategy in 2004 of steering radically right and pandering to the religious right wing could possibly result in victory. But it did.

REMEMBER what Karl Rove said? We added up the numbers and we realized it wasn't about appealing to the independents. Independents are just that. Independent. They are either gonna vote for or against us based on more than the campaign. They vote policies.

Now look at the electoral map of 2004 when Bush won:
http://www.realclearpolitics.c...bama_vs_mccain/?map=11

Tell me you are sure of Virginia and Ohio switching Democrat?

Ohio is razor thin and Virgiania saw a 7.5 percent difference in the vote between the polls and Wilder when he ran.

Now here's my point. The ONE state McCain MUST have is Florida. AMAZINGLY he has not campaigned in Florida in over 2.5 months. That's a WTF that should scare the cr*p out of Democrats. Not campaiging in the ONE state he absolutely has to have? And, if he DOES win it than Obama has to take away MORE than just a single major state from McCain that Bush won in 2004.

What does the McCain campaign know about Florida that we don't know?

If McCain wins Florida, look at the map of 2004.

Obama needs to flip not just one state but at least TWO states.

Even with Virginia Obama loses.

Cr*p! Dmcowen may be right.
Like I said unless Obama wins North Carolina McCain doesn't even have to campaign.

Like I said I hope I am wrong which is very very rare.

Crossing fingers for very very rare.

I was wondering when you would show up.

btw the mass delusion of the Democrats extends even to this forum.
 

SP33Demon

Lifer
Jun 22, 2001
27,935
141
106
Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Originally posted by: techs
Democrats couldn't believe Bushes strategy in 2004 of steering radically right and pandering to the religious right wing could possibly result in victory. But it did.

REMEMBER what Karl Rove said? We added up the numbers and we realized it wasn't about appealing to the independents. Independents are just that. Independent. They are either gonna vote for or against us based on more than the campaign. They vote policies.

Now look at the electoral map of 2004 when Bush won:
http://www.realclearpolitics.c...bama_vs_mccain/?map=11

Tell me you are sure of Virginia and Ohio switching Democrat?

Ohio is razor thin and Virgiania saw a 7.5 percent difference in the vote between the polls and Wilder when he ran.

Now here's my point. The ONE state McCain MUST have is Florida. AMAZINGLY he has not campaigned in Florida in over 2.5 months. That's a WTF that should scare the cr*p out of Democrats. Not campaiging in the ONE state he absolutely has to have? And, if he DOES win it than Obama has to take away MORE than just a single major state from McCain that Bush won in 2004.

What does the McCain campaign know about Florida that we don't know?

If McCain wins Florida, look at the map of 2004.

Obama needs to flip not just one state but at least TWO states.

Even with Virginia Obama loses.

Cr*p! Dmcowen may be right.
Like I said unless Obama wins North Carolina McCain doesn't even have to campaign.

Like I said I hope I am wrong which is very very rare.

Crossing fingers for very very rare.
You're also assuming VA, CO, and NM for McCain with that statement and Obama has a stranglehold in each. Obama doesn't need NC, WV, OH, ND, NV, FL, IN, MO as long as he holds onto the 3 aforementioned and ones that Kerry won which would give Obama a 286-252 victory. Hell, give McCain even CO and NM and Obama still wins with just VA (lean Obama) + Iowa (solid Obama) + all of Kerry's blue states = 272 total. ;)

 

brencat

Platinum Member
Feb 26, 2007
2,171
3
76
Actually techs, with all the threads you've started lately, I'd swear your real goal isn't to discuss politics, but to get to 10k posts by Thanksgiving!
 

ProfJohn

Lifer
Jul 28, 2006
18,268
4
0
1. McCain was in Miami just a few days ago. Palin has been in Florida as well.

2. In 2004 TIPP nearly nailed the finally results, the currently show Obama +5

3. In 2004 Gallup was a point low for Bush and a point high for Kerry, they have Obama +2. If they had the same error rate as 2004 then it would be a tied race.

4. If you look at the polls released on the 16 or 17th you get about a +4.7 average for Obama.

5. The +6.4 average includes an LA Times +9 poll and a CBS +14 result, those two are way off the mark compared to the rest of the polls.
 

techs

Lifer
Sep 26, 2000
28,567
3
0
Originally posted by: ProfJohn
1. McCain was in Miami just a few days ago. Palin has been in Florida as well.

2. In 2004 TIPP nearly nailed the finally results, the currently show Obama +5

3. In 2004 Gallup was a point low for Bush and a point high for Kerry, they have Obama +2. If they had the same error rate as 2004 then it would be a tied race.

4. If you look at the polls released on the 16 or 17th you get about a +4.7 average for Obama.

5. The +6.4 average includes an LA Times +9 poll and a CBS +14 result, those two are way off the mark compared to the rest of the polls.

Yes, and it was McCains first visit in about 2.5 months. In fact, that's why I brough it up, I saw that comment on either rcp or 535 but couldn't find the link to post it.
 

Engineer

Elite Member
Oct 9, 1999
39,255
699
126
Originally posted by: ProfJohn

5. The +6.4 average includes an LA Times +9 poll and a CBS +14 result, those two are way off the mark compared to the rest of the polls.
Why not throw out the +2 poll since it's way off compared to the average also then?

Throw out what you don't like, eh? :laugh:
 

techs

Lifer
Sep 26, 2000
28,567
3
0
Originally posted by: Engineer
Originally posted by: ProfJohn

5. The +6.4 average includes an LA Times +9 poll and a CBS +14 result, those two are way off the mark compared to the rest of the polls.
Why not throw out the +2 poll since it's way off compared to the average also then?

Throw out what you don't like, eh? :laugh:

Well, these polls are the most recent. And I, and many people, have been saying that Obama got a bump from the first debate, the economic meltdown and the idiocy of Palin and that Obama would give back a few points to McCain. I think this is the beginning of that trend.
 

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