COLUMBUS, Ohio (CNN) -- Sen. John McCain thinks the Iraq War will be won but the threat from the Taliban in Afghanistan won't yet be eliminated, even though Osama bin Laden will be captured or killed, by 2013.
The presumptive Republican presidential nominee made both statements in a speech in which he envisions the state of affairs at the end of what would be his first term if he is elected president.
McCain's speech, delivered in Columbus, Ohio, Thursday, also lists objectives he intends to achieve in his first term -- if he is elected president.
"What I want to do today is take a little time to describe what I would hope to have achieved at the end of my first term as president. I cannot guarantee I will have achieved these things," McCain said.
The Arizona senator said he believes the United States will have a smaller military presence in Iraq that will not play a direct combat role, and he predicts that al Qaeda in Iraq will be defeated.
"By January 2013, America has welcomed home most of the servicemen and women who have sacrificed terribly so that America might be secure in her freedom.
"The Iraq War has been won. Iraq is a functioning democracy, although still suffering from the lingering effects of decades of tyranny and centuries of sectarian tension," McCain said.
The violence in Iraq will persist, the candidate believes, but it will be "spasmodic and much reduced." But civil war will be prevented, armed militias will be disbanded, security forces will become "professional and competent" and the government will be able to impose "its authority in every province of Iraq" and properly defend its borders.
McCain also said he also believes the "threat from a resurgent Taliban in Afghanistan will be greatly reduced but not eliminated" and that U.S. and NATO forces will remain in the country "to help finish the job, and continue operations against the remnants of al Qaeda."
I don't see anything wrong or even exceptional in these remarks. Personally, I tend to think there is a very good probrability that this can be achieved in a much shorter timeline.
It's also in the realm of possibility that no matter what has been accomplished, we may be moving out with haste come the end of this year. The UN mandate for our presence expires at year-end and the Iraqi parliment itself must approve any extention. With new Iraqi elections scheduled for November, we don't even know who will be in power.
But as to the achievements McCain lists, if Iraqi progress continues and they do get the Southern area cleaned up (with or without al-Sadr's help) oil exploration and drilling can begin. They've got an unbelievable amount of oil, once that money starts flowing there's good reason to believe that Iraq can change dramatically for the better. But as McCain says, there will be some level of problems, no one expects it turn into a peaceful paradise. They just need some more improvements in security to get the money spigots flowing
Pakistan will work with the United States in deploying counter-insurgency tactics in the al Qaeda-laden tribal regions, the Arizona Republican said.
^ This strikes me as overly optimistic.
As for the leader of al Qaeda, McCain believes "the increase in actionable intelligence that the counterinsurgency produced led to the capture or death of Osama bin Laden, and his chief lieutenants."
Not a big deal IMO. At this point, capturing/killing OBL strikes me as more a publicity coup than any thing else
"There is no longer any place in the world al Qaeda can consider a safe haven," McCain said.
He also believes that in 2013, there still will not have been a "major terrorist attack in the United States since September 11, 2001."
Other milestones McCain hopes to see at the end of what would be his first term are:
Witnessing "a reluctant Russia and China" cooperating in "pressuring Iran to abandon its nuclear ambitions, and North Korea to discontinue its own," because of "concerted action by the great democracies of the world."
Significantly increasing the size of the Army and Marine Corps, which will be "better equipped and trained to defend us."
Anybody else think a Dem controlled Congress might have some say in this proposed military build up?
The application of "stiff diplomatic and economic pressure" by the United States -- acting in concert with a newly formed League of Democracies -- to cause Sudan to agree to a multinational peacekeeping force, with NATO countries providing logistical and air support, to stop the genocide in Darfur.
Ahh.. See, this shouldn't be overlooked so readily. A "newly formed League of Democracies"? I don't understand why this hugely important idea doesn't get much attention from the MSM. This is perhaps the *biggest new idea* this whole campaign. A total new framework for addressing global problems. Out with the U.N. and in with the LoD. Russia and China won't be part of it, if he's serious about his *definition* of democracies. To totally restructure the way the majority of the world's governments works together completely dwarfs every thing else mentioned.
Several years of robust economic growth for the United States, with Americans again having confidence in their economic future.
Millions of taxpayers filing under a flat tax and saving billions in the cost of preparing their returns.
Again, good luck with this. This is in Congress's hands.
The world food crisis ending, low inflation, and a "much improved" quality of life "not only in our country, but in some of the most impoverished countries around the world."
The two below really beg for some explanation of how they wil be accomplished
More accessible health care for Americans and an easing on the pressure on Medicare due to the reduction in the growth of health care costs.
A United States well on its way to "independence from foreign sources of oil."
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