McCain makes risky play for Pennsylvania.

[techs]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/politi...1012/pl_politico/14495

McCain makes risky play for Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania hasn?t voted Republican for president since 1988. Democrats have increased their registration numbers here by more than a half-million over the past year, and Barack Obama has a double-digit lead in the polls.

Yet John McCain's campaign continues to signal that it intends to contest the state and its 21 electoral votes to the end. It is a high-risk, high-return endeavor: Pennsylvania represents a costly gambit, one that siphons resources from must-win states such as Ohio and Florida, but a win here would enable McCain to lose a few other states that George W. Bush carried and still capture the White House.

So with 23 days until Election Day, the state finds itself at the epicenter of the presidential campaign, with both sides spending precious time and money trying to energize their respective bases and drive up their opponents? negatives.



At this stage of the campaign both candidates should have narrowed thier focus on a few states they need. That McCain is putting money and time in Pa. is astounding.
RCP has the poll numbers for Pa.
http://www.realclearpolitics.c...cain_vs_obama-244.html

There is not a poll in the last 2 weeks that doesn't have Obama up by double digits. And if you go back to McCains peak, just after the Republican convention, he never managed to win a single poll unless you go back to April. I don't know anyone who gives McCain a chance in Pa.

Has the McCain candidacy made a fatal error? Does McCain know something we don't? Is the McCain campaign just plain loopy?

 

[BlueAcolyte]

Wow, I feel suddenly important. I don't think PA has ever been considered this important.

 

[Perknose]

Originally posted by: BlueAcolyte
Wow, I feel suddenly important. I don't think PA has ever been considered this important.

Not so. Pa. is generally a swing state, and, being a relatively big one with a significant number of electoral votes, almost always vigorously contested.

 

[nageov3t]

seems like worrying about a paper cut on your hand while a vein is hemorrhaging.

 

[techs]

Originally posted by: BlueAcolyte
Wow, I feel suddenly important. I don't think PA has ever been considered this important.

Don't screw it up.

 

[Stoneburner]

McCain is odd and he apparently doesn't put sufficient money into information gathering. How is taking PA going to help if he loses FL? Or even OH?

 

[microbial]

Oct 12 Philadelphia inquirer: Obama 13.8 points ahead in Pa.

http://www.philly.com/inquirer...clear_lead_in_Pa_.html

 

[techs]

Originally posted by: microbial
Oct 12 Philadelphia inquirer: Obama 13.8 points ahead in Pa.

http://www.philly.com/inquirer...clear_lead_in_Pa_.html

Well, we all know McCain's not real good with numbers.

 

[alchemize]

I suspect the "clinging to guns and religion" ad will come out the last 2 weeks.

 

[Perknose]

Originally posted by: alchemize
I suspect the "clinging to guns and religion" ad will come out the last 2 weeks.

It will be interesting to see if a quote only heard by a blogger at a private and closed event will be given the formal imprintature of an actual televised McCain campaign ad.

AFAIK, this would be a first.

 

[nageov3t]

Originally posted by: alchemize
I suspect the "clinging to guns and religion" ad will come out the last 2 weeks.

well, the line of attack worked for Clin... oh wait.

Originally posted by: Perknose
It will be interesting to see if a quote only heard by a blogger at a private and closed event will be given the formal imprintature of an actual televised McCain campaign ad.

AFAIK, this would be a first.

there is a recording of it: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...-audio-on_b_96333.html

 

[Perknose]

Originally posted by: loki8481
there is a recording of it: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...-audio-on_b_96333.html

Whoa, didn't realize this. :shocked:

If the McCain campaign itself doesn't, I'm sure a 527 group will. In fact, it's a wonder one hasn't already.

And I think this highlights part of the not easily categorizable character of John McCain, the man. Yes, he has allowed his campaign to be hijacked by the negative ad boys, but I also believe he has shown some admirable personal character in his forthright response to some of the more primitive yahoo supporters at his rallies not to hate.

At the end of the day, McCain is his own man, and just can't be completely controlled by the Rovian creeps who nonetheless suffuse parts of his campaign staff.

It's almost too strong, but he's something of a tragic figure -- sunk by the dirty tricks of the Bush boyz in 2000, when I think he could actually have won the general election fair and square and -- no doubt in my mind -- had a less disgusting and more productive 8 years than President Cheney.

 

[alchemize]

Originally posted by: Perknose

Originally posted by: alchemize
I suspect the "clinging to guns and religion" ad will come out the last 2 weeks.

It will be interesting to see if a quote only heard by a blogger at a private and closed event will be given the formal imprintature of an actual televised McCain campaign ad.

AFAIK, this would be a first.

AFAIK, Obama never denied saying it, and apologized for it...are you questioning it even occurred?

edit: I see loki posted it the recording.

 

[Perknose]

Originally posted by: alchemize

Originally posted by: Perknose

Originally posted by: alchemize
I suspect the "clinging to guns and religion" ad will come out the last 2 weeks.

It will be interesting to see if a quote only heard by a blogger at a private and closed event will be given the formal imprintature of an actual televised McCain campaign ad.

AFAIK, this would be a first.

AFAIK, Obama never denied saying it, and apologized for it...are you questioning it even occurred?

No, I wasn't.

 

[StageLeft]

Has the McCain candidacy made a fatal error? Does McCain know something we don't? Is the McCain campaign just plain loopy?

Is a pig with lipstick still a pig?

 

[DrPizza]

My son's school in NY was just on midsemester break. A LOT of the students went to PA for the weekend to campaign for Obama. This had been planned for for several weeks.

 

[tweaker2]

How low McCain goes depends purely on how high Obama flies. And man-oh-man, McCain/Palin are irresistably getting sucked into an galactic Black Hole of epic proportions, and sadly/comically, of their own making.

 

[HomerJS]

Originally posted by: loki8481

Originally posted by: alchemize
I suspect the "clinging to guns and religion" ad will come out the last 2 weeks.

well, the line of attack worked for Clin... oh wait.

Originally posted by: Perknose
It will be interesting to see if a quote only heard by a blogger at a private and closed event will be given the formal imprintature of an actual televised McCain campaign ad.

AFAIK, this would be a first.

there is a recording of it: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...-audio-on_b_96333.html

And right after that another release of this current McCain supporter...

What did she call those same people???

 

[StageLeft]

The guns and religion thing was used months ago. Are people really still interested in that?

Originally posted by: microbial
Oct 12 Philadelphia inquirer: Obama 13.8 points ahead in Pa.

http://www.philly.com/inquirer...clear_lead_in_Pa_.html

unfortunately gallup shows obama's lead decreasing based on Oct 10-11 polling. It's still substantial, but not as high as it was a week earlier.

 

[Farang]

Originally posted by: Skoorb
The guns and religion thing was used months ago. Are people really still interested in that?

Originally posted by: microbial
Oct 12 Philadelphia inquirer: Obama 13.8 points ahead in Pa.

http://www.philly.com/inquirer...clear_lead_in_Pa_.html

unfortunately gallup shows obama's lead decreasing based on Oct 10-11 polling. It's still substantial, but not as high as it was a week earlier.

I've seen this cited before and it is crap. Gallup went from being an outlier for 3-4 days to returning to the average of about 7.

 

[Perknose]

Originally posted by: HomerJS
And right after that another release of this current McCain supporter...

What did she call those same people???

:laugh:

 

[Blackjack200]

As a PA resident, I'm completely unsurprised by this. If ever there was a state that could have a Bradley effect, PA is the one. I don't know if it can overcome a double digit lead, but there is a significant amount of overt racism here. There's a guy 2 houses down from me that hangs Confederate flag from his window on MLK day. That would just never happen in my old neighborhood in NJ, someone doing that would have faced too much hostility.

Rural PA is no contest: heavily McCain. The strategy is to register as many Philly and Pittsburgh voters as possible before the deadline (passed), and now to get as many of them to the polls as possible on the 4th. At the same time, try to at least make a dent outside the cities. People are hurting there too, and if we can swing a few voters that's huge. The battle lines are drawn, and I think Obama will make a big push here as well.

I'm doing everything I can: I registered as soon as I moved here, I'm working the phone banks (last session a woman I called told me she was pro-life but voting for Obama anyway, I was so happy I almost cried) and I'm even letting some campaign staffers use my guest room so they don't have to pay for a hotel. Obama's got a big ground operation in PA, I really think we can deliver.

 

[techs]

Originally posted by: Blackjack200
As a PA resident, I'm completely unsurprised by this. If ever there was a state that could have a Bradley effect, PA is the one. I don't know if it can overcome a double digit lead, but there is a significant amount of overt racism here. There's a guy 2 houses down from me that hangs Confederate flag from his window on MLK day. That would just never happen in my old neighborhood in NJ, someone doing that would have faced too much hostility.

Rural PA is no contest: heavily McCain. The strategy is to register as many Philly and Pittsburgh voters as possible before the deadline (passed), and now to get as many of them to the polls as possible on the 4th. At the same time, try to at least make a dent outside the cities. People are hurting there too, and if we can swing a few voters that's huge. The battle lines are drawn, and I think Obama will make a big push here as well.

I'm doing everything I can: I registered as soon as I moved here, I'm working the phone banks (last session a woman I called told me she was pro-life but voting for Obama anyway, I was so happy I almost cried) and I'm even letting some campaign staffers use my guest room so they don't have to pay for a hotel. Obama's got a big ground operation in PA, I really think we can deliver.

Funny thing about Pa. It's been a battleground state since the 1980's but only went Republican once, for Reagan in 1988, iirc.

 

[Rainsford]

Originally posted by: alchemize

Originally posted by: Perknose

Originally posted by: alchemize
I suspect the "clinging to guns and religion" ad will come out the last 2 weeks.

It will be interesting to see if a quote only heard by a blogger at a private and closed event will be given the formal imprintature of an actual televised McCain campaign ad.

AFAIK, this would be a first.

AFAIK, Obama never denied saying it, and apologized for it...are you questioning it even occurred?

edit: I see loki posted it the recording.

I think you are overestimating the impact of Obama saying that. Sure, it's bound to piss a few people off (like it did when it first came out months ago), but I honestly don't think most people in PA or anywhere else would consider themselves as "clinging" to guns and/or religion, even the religious folks who are in favor of gun ownership. And the folks who ARE deeply offended by Obama's dig at their life choices probably weren't on the fence about him to begin with.

Elections aren't about not pissing anyone off, they're about making sure you don't piss the WRONG people off. I know everyone likes to think that their own slice of the political spectrum is all important to the election, but Obama saying what he did about the gun and religion nuts has about as much impact as McCain slighting eco-nuts. Conservatives have talked about the far right being "mainstream" so long I think they're starting to believe their own hype, but reality isn't quite that way.