McCain: "I don't believe we are headed into a recession."

[jpeyton]

One area where polls have held steady for over a year is regarding the economy. Public opinion has given a clear edge on the economy to Democrats, and in turn given Obama a clear edge over McCain with voters who rank that issue highly.

Today was a perfect storm of bad news from multiple, interrelated sectors of our economy. Predictions are that next week might be even worse as the Consumer Price Index is released and will likely show new record (or near record) increases in inflation.

Foreclosures Hit Record High

About 2.47 percent of home mortgages were in foreclosure during the first quarter of the year, up from 1.28 percent during the comparable period last year and the highest point since the Mortgage Bankers Association began compiling figures in 1979. Another 6.35 percent of home mortgages were delinquent but not yet in foreclosure, up from 4.84 percent last year, the survey found. Taken together, that means that almost 9 percent of mortgages nationally were in trouble...

Unemployment Jumps Record 0.5%

The unemployment rate surged to 5.5 percent in May from 5 percent, the largest monthly spike in more than two decades, as the economy shed 49,000 jobs for a fifth month of decline, the Labor Department reported on Friday.

Oil Spikes To $139/Barrel; Stocks Get Slammed

Wall Street was awash in red on Friday as the Dow Jones industrial average plunged nearly 400 points, falling to a four-month low.

The dollar tumbled against other major currencies, and oil had a historic day, climbing more than $10 to close at the new record high of $138.54. Oil prices were propped up by the weak dollar and a report from Morgan Stanley, which predicted that oil will hit $150 by July 4.

 

[nageov3t]

have we had two successive quarters of negative growth?

 

[OrByte]

Originally posted by: loki8481
have we had two successive quarters of negative growth?

r-e-c-e-s-s-i-o-n

all together now!

 

[lupi]

Don't forget to add the report of increased retail sales.


Oh damn, that's right.

 

[nonameo]

The dow is down 400 points all the time now.

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: lupi
Don't forget to add the report of increased retail sales.


Oh damn, that's right.

mmm, next time I break my leg you can tell me how great my hair looks.]q\have we had two successive quarters of negative growth?[/quote]We will and if we don't it's only a facade as the dollar becomes like toilet paper (since growth is measured by GDP). Unemployment up the most in 22 years, energy costs beginning to affect everything including real-inflation figures, there is nothing good going on in the economy right now despite little flecks of gold in a pile of turd that some may point to.

 

[Slew Foot]

DOes the GDP account for inflation?

 

[gentobu]

Everything McCain says is a lie.

 

[KK]

he's right, we aren't headed into a recession. Where the hell do you think we've been?

 

[StageLeft]

i just went to cnn money for fun and it really is concerning. Biggest one point drop in the dow in 15 months, biggest unemployment jump in 22 years, biggest oil jump in both dollars and % in history (and by a damned lot at that0. Foreclosures? Who cares, housing is so early-this-year

Really, though, things are in terrible shape. This economy is potentially heading into a major recession.

 

[brencat]

Anyone who claims we are not in a recession is only bullsh*tting themselves. And I like how the permabulls tried to explain that the major jump in unemployment rate was due to a ton of teenagers and college students entering the workforce to look for summer jobs and not finding many -- what crap!

I work on Wall St btw, and the environment is among the worst of my career. The business is on its knees. It's in my financial interest to be bullish, but comon...this pig is just too damn ugly and we've run out of lipstick.

 

[Lemon law]

Lets face the facts, we are already in a recession due to the failed public policies of GWB&co. Bad public policy always fails. Unrestricted public borrowing, 3.6 trillion during the GWB watch, can do much to create the illusion of prosperity, but time always runs out on that illusion. In the case of Ronald Reagan, he rode it out to the end of his term, only to have it descend on a hapless GHB who had to say read my lips, gotta raise taxes. In the case of the even more inept GWB&co, it now looks like the chickens are coming home to roost even before GWB can slink out of office. As for the hapless McCain, he has to hope it does not happen, because if we are heading for a deep recession, McCain does not stand a snowflakes chance in hell.

So McCain has to be that deep in denial Mr. Rogers chanting its a beautiful day in the neighborhood.

But cheer up, the next President is well on his way to being the next Hoover. At least Hoover had that 10 month honeymoon before the bottom dropped out.

 

[Aimster]

Did this guy even go to college? He is a man who talks about our economy as if he has never taken an economics course before.

 

[Cuda1447]

Ya, this economic ignorance is one of the things that worries me about McCain. Agh, I really wish the Rep. had a better candidate. Can we have a re-do on our primaries?

 

[jackschmittusa]

And more to come!

Watch fuel costs and short loads drive the independent truckers out of business.

Watch the auto companies shutter plants.

Watch the markets for many products for the home tank as former home owners sell everything from lawn mowers to dining room furniture cheap.

Watch all of the businesses that rely on people's discretionary spending to take a major hit.

 

[sandorski]

Reality: "I don't believe McCain is headed to the White House."

 

[maverick44]

Originally posted by: Lemon law
Lets face the facts, we are already in a recession due to the failed public policies of GWB&co. Bad public policy always fails. Unrestricted public borrowing, 3.6 trillion during the GWB watch, can do much to create the illusion of prosperity, but time always runs out on that illusion. In the case of Ronald Reagan, he rode it out to the end of his term, only to have it descend on a hapless GHB who had to say read my lips, gotta raise taxes. In the case of the even more inept GWB&co, it now looks like the chickens are coming home to roost even before GWB can slink out of office. As for the hapless McCain, he has to hope it does not happen, because if we are heading for a deep recession, McCain does not stand a snowflakes chance in hell.

So McCain has to be that deep in denial Mr. Rogers chanting its a beautiful day in the neighborhood.

But cheer up, the next President is well on his way to being the next Hoover. At least Hoover had that 10 month honeymoon before the bottom dropped out.

Recession real or not has nothing to with anything related to bush.

Consider the factors at play here

1)rising prices of oil. largely unexplained. Demand is up but no where near the number needed to push the price so high. Some manipulation by the OPEC is there definitely.

2)Lack of productivity growth in USA. If you dont know what that means dont bother.

PS the only blame I would put on Bush is his policy towards subsidizing corn and other agribusiness in the US. The food pricing menace on the global marketplace is just that.

 

[Taejin]

Originally posted by: KK
he's right, we aren't headed into a recession. Where the hell do you think we've been?

lol

 

[LegendKiller]

Originally posted by: loki8481
have we had two successive quarters of negative growth?

That measurement is about as good as throwing dirt in the air to tell you when it's going to rain in the next year.

 

[jackschmittusa]

maverick44

Recession real or not has nothing to with anything related to bush.

You're kidding right?

How about:

hands-off policy for the banking industry

hands-off policy regarding speculators in oil (good regulatory precedent with controls on silver for example)

multiple policies contributing to the dollar value slide

continuing to allow corporations to call a P.O. Box offshore the corporate headquarters and avoid billions in taxes, further contributing to the huge deficit spending

lack of interest in retaining jobs in the country

Just picking a few for you.

 

[heyheybooboo]

Originally posted by: jackschmittusa
maverick44

Recession real or not has nothing to with anything related to bush.

You're kidding right?

How about:

hands-off policy for the banking industry

hands-off policy regarding speculators in oil (good regulatory precedent with controls on silver for example)

multiple policies contributing to the dollar value slide

continuing to allow corporations to call a P.O. Box offshore the corporate headquarters and avoid billions in taxes, further contributing to the huge deficit spending

lack of interest in retaining jobs in the country

Just picking a few for you.

I agree with you completely (and would love to continue on this theme) but the overiding point that everyone has missed in this thread is that the technical description defining ""recession"" is bogus as Hell.

A significant (and growing) percentage of this country is in perpetual recession. I'm not going to turn this into a John Edwards 'Two Americas' thing but it's true ...

In the good ol' days a family with two wage earners could buy a house, live comfortably, save some money, build a little wealth and retire with a reasonable hope for a decent quality of life. Ain't happenin' now, I'm afraid ...

I would love for someone to dig up some stats on the growing, persistent 'negative life equity' being built up by the 'bottom third' of this country.

 

[Red Dawn]

Been there done that back in 74-78. Americans adjusted and we eventually came out fine. We'll just have to tighten our belts and lower our expectations for the near future.

 

[ericlp]

Originally posted by: maverick44

Originally posted by: Lemon law
Lets face the facts, we are already in a recession due to the failed public policies of GWB&co. Bad public policy always fails. Unrestricted public borrowing, 3.6 trillion during the GWB watch, can do much to create the illusion of prosperity, but time always runs out on that illusion. In the case of Ronald Reagan, he rode it out to the end of his term, only to have it descend on a hapless GHB who had to say read my lips, gotta raise taxes. In the case of the even more inept GWB&co, it now looks like the chickens are coming home to roost even before GWB can slink out of office. As for the hapless McCain, he has to hope it does not happen, because if we are heading for a deep recession, McCain does not stand a snowflakes chance in hell.

So McCain has to be that deep in denial Mr. Rogers chanting its a beautiful day in the neighborhood.

But cheer up, the next President is well on his way to being the next Hoover. At least Hoover had that 10 month honeymoon before the bottom dropped out.

Recession real or not has nothing to with anything related to bush.

Consider the factors at play here

1)rising prices of oil. largely unexplained. Demand is up but no where near the number needed to push the price so high. Some manipulation by the OPEC is there definitely.

2)Lack of productivity growth in USA. If you dont know what that means dont bother.

PS the only blame I would put on Bush is his policy towards subsidizing corn and other agribusiness in the US. The food pricing menace on the global marketplace is just that.

Checked the Debt clock lately? Hey, maybe if we had not invaded iraq we would still have some cash left to try to balance or fix are addiction to oil? It's all this BS about wars and all the rest of the crap that we wasted time and money on... When we could have been figuring out way to make alternative fuel / energy to help ourselves...

bush has caused a major drain on the economy ... He has made tons of poor decisions relating to what is going on now. Like stimulus packages and tax cuts and ...yadda yadda yadda ... I could go on forever ...

His budget, his plan, his policies are all stupid and wrong.... He is a failure to the human race....

 

[nergee]

Originally posted by: ericlp

Originally posted by: maverick44

Originally posted by: Lemon law
Lets face the facts, we are already in a recession due to the failed public policies of GWB&co. Bad public policy always fails. Unrestricted public borrowing, 3.6 trillion during the GWB watch, can do much to create the illusion of prosperity, but time always runs out on that illusion. In the case of Ronald Reagan, he rode it out to the end of his term, only to have it descend on a hapless GHB who had to say read my lips, gotta raise taxes. In the case of the even more inept GWB&co, it now looks like the chickens are coming home to roost even before GWB can slink out of office. As for the hapless McCain, he has to hope it does not happen, because if we are heading for a deep recession, McCain does not stand a snowflakes chance in hell.

So McCain has to be that deep in denial Mr. Rogers chanting its a beautiful day in the neighborhood.

But cheer up, the next President is well on his way to being the next Hoover. At least Hoover had that 10 month honeymoon before the bottom dropped out.

Recession real or not has nothing to with anything related to bush.

Consider the factors at play here

1)rising prices of oil. largely unexplained. Demand is up but no where near the number needed to push the price so high. Some manipulation by the OPEC is there definitely.

2)Lack of productivity growth in USA. If you dont know what that means dont bother.

PS the only blame I would put on Bush is his policy towards subsidizing corn and other agribusiness in the US. The food pricing menace on the global marketplace is just that.

Checked the Debt clock lately? Hey, maybe if we had not invaded iraq we would still have some cash left to try to balance or fix are addiction to oil? It's all this BS about wars and all the rest of the crap that we wasted time and money on... When we could have been figuring out way to make alternative fuel / energy to help ourselves...

bush has caused a major drain on the economy ... He has made tons of poor decisions relating to what is going on now. Like stimulus packages and tax cuts and ...yadda yadda yadda ... I could go on forever ...

His budget, his plan, his policies are all stupid and wrong.... He is a failure to the human race....

Bush isn't the only one here...you can include the FED, fractional reserve lending practices and the Congress....

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: Red Dawn
Been there done that back in 74-78.

Americans adjusted and we eventually came out fine.

We'll just have to tighten our belts and lower our expectations for the near future.

That's the point. Bernake, McSame and the GOP continue to say we are not in 74-78 mode.

This is actually a whole lot worse than the 74-78 situation because of China, deficits and the fact we are still in Iraq.

It is a recipe for worse than 1929.