Matt Simmons Speaks at YPE Meeting about Peak Oil

[wwswimming]

Matt Simmons is a 65 year old man who has worked in the energy field
all his life & manages a $60 billion investment bank in Texas that he
also founded. He is the author of the book 'Twilight in the Desert', which
he wrote after studying data specific to the Ghawar field in Saudi Arabia
and related fields. His company's website
http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/

His speeches
http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/...h.aspx?Type=msspeeches

article at NPR about the YPE meeting in Houston where he spoke recently.

"The garrulous, 65-year-old oil-field investment banker said the world's giant oil fields are all in decline ? from the North Sea to Mexico's Cantarell field."

"I think he's a little bit on the aggressive side in believing that we've already peaked," said Mike Cox, 27, with Schlumberger Business Consulting. "But I do agree we have that on the horizon, and there's not an infinite amount of oil and at some point we'll have to deal with the declining curve."

So who's right, the 65 year old man or the 27 year old man ?

You would have to dig into Matt Simmons speeches to find the range of dates he put on the Peak of production. For those who are interested, one good source is The Oil Drum
http://www.theoildrum.com/

... sort of like an Anandtech forum, for geologists.

 

[StageLeft]

Well, I do not believe for a minute that we've peaked. Daily production has been as high as 87 (not sure how meaningful OPEC's cuts have been). I'm sure the world will peak at, say, above 90. How far above or beyond that I do not know, but I really don't think we've peaked. Saudi is supposed to have another few million per day on tap in the very short term.

It's very possible, though, that the industrialized world will wait too long to get off its ass about alternatives and continue to face speculative energy bubbles from time to time. And, one of those times, it may not be speculative; the thing will be real. Then it will suck.

 

[dmcowen674]

Clearly we ran out of oil last summer whn it hit $147 a barrel.

 

[soccerballtux]

Originally posted by: Skoorb
Well, I do not believe for a minute that we've peaked. Daily production has been as high as 87 (not sure how meaningful OPEC's cuts have been). I'm sure the world will peak at, say, above 90. How far above or beyond that I do not know, but I really don't think we've peaked. Saudi is supposed to have another few million per day on tap in the very short term.

It's very possible, though, that the industrialized world will wait too long to get off its ass about alternatives and continue to face speculative energy bubbles from time to time. And, one of those times, it may not be speculative; the thing will be real. Then it will suck.

Meh, it's a long way off. We keep finding new sources, like that 1T barrel find in Alaska. Canada's got as much as the whole middle east in their sands, too.
Exxon knows this, else they would have dumped all their profits back into new infrastructure like all the rest of the companies. We've got plenty.

 

[little elvis]

Originally posted by: soccerballtux

Originally posted by: Skoorb
Well, I do not believe for a minute that we've peaked. Daily production has been as high as 87 (not sure how meaningful OPEC's cuts have been). I'm sure the world will peak at, say, above 90. How far above or beyond that I do not know, but I really don't think we've peaked. Saudi is supposed to have another few million per day on tap in the very short term.

It's very possible, though, that the industrialized world will wait too long to get off its ass about alternatives and continue to face speculative energy bubbles from time to time. And, one of those times, it may not be speculative; the thing will be real. Then it will suck.

Meh, it's a long way off. We keep finding new sources, like that 1T barrel find in Alaska. Canada's got as much as the whole middle east in their sands, too.
Exxon knows this, else they would have dumped all their profits back into new infrastructure like all the rest of the companies. We've got plenty.

Eh, what 1T barrel find? That's more than the Saudi reserves... And almost as much as the entire worlds known reserves...

 

[wwswimming]

additional resources -

Ken Deffeyes, retired Princeton geology professor. Put the Peak at November 2005, then revised it to December 2005. is probably scratching his chin thinking about a data point in 2007 that indicates a plateau from 2005 to 2007.

Robert Hirsch, lead writer on the Hirsch Report. works for SAIC. about as non-hippie as you can get. but, people still don't believe him.

now admittedly, there are other people, like Matt Savinar, who couples his own statements about Peak Oil with advertisements for solar ovens. "Civilization as we know it is coming to an end. Now, how about buying a solar oven ?"

And there is Mike Ruppert, who I greatly admire as an investigative journalist. however, his work on 9-11 and his statement that Peak Oil was the motivation for 9-11, is a lot for people to assimilate.

So, sidestepping Matt Savinar & Mike Ruppert, and getting back to Simmons, Deffeyes, and Hirsch - these are older guys who have worked in the energy industry all their lives. Simmons is ringing the alarm bell with clarity & precision.

Yet people dismiss them.

Facts vs. Hope ?

It takes energy to build the replacement energy infrastructure. One of the primary conclusions of the Hirsch Report was that, in order to avoid "major economic dislocations" (science-speak for major economic recession), the United States needed to start building alternatives 20 years ago.

 

[desy]

Again, Peak oil does not cover ethanol or Tar Sands which is WHY we made it to 87 mil
It only covers CONVENTIONAL crude which did not go up, just ofset by all that ethanol and increased Tar and heavy oil production

 

[wwswimming]

Originally posted by: desy
Again, Peak oil does not cover ethanol or Tar Sands which is WHY we made it to 87 mil
It only covers CONVENTIONAL crude which did not go up, just ofset by all that ethanol and increased Tar and heavy oil production

well, i didn't want to be the one to bump this thread.

BUT, since it did get bumped ... my thoughts after listening to an interview with both Robert Hirsch & Matt Simmons (below).

incidentally, both Robert & Matt are extremely knowledgeable about tar sands and other petroleum sources besides crude (liquid natural gas, for example). They are very knowledgeable about ethanol.

The 85 (87?) million barrels per day number is total liquids production. it includes oil from tar sands.

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http://www.netcastdaily.com/br...ast/fsn2008-1213-2.mp3

interviewed by Jim Puplava at Financial Sense .com
http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/main.html

I have listened to Matt speak about 5 times and I have never heard the alarm in his voice that I hear in the webcast that went online yesterday.

This page has a link to Matt Simmons talking about his book Twilight in the Desert. He sounds different.
http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/2005/Simmons.html

They plow through the data real fast in this most recent interview. They talk about Cantarell, Mexico's largest oil field. Matt describes a production drop at Cantarell from 2.2 Million barrels per day about 3 years ago, to .9 million barrels today. However, they (Mexico) need to keep some of that oil for themselves.

speaking of Mexico, quoting Matt -
"export ability will be over by the end of 2009"

notes from when they talked about Brazil -
"20-40 years to develop
deep deep - drilling close to the magma
never been developed before"

In other words, the super-giant (a giant is an oil-field with a billion barrels, if I remember correctly) oil field in Brazil that has recently been discovered is like the moon-shot in terms of technology development - it involves drilling at depths & pressures that have never been drilled before. So there is some optimism involved in thinking that that oil field will be profitable and that it will be developed.

It's one of the most informative 1 hour broadcasts I've heard since being introduced to this subject. For me, the subject matter covered and the sound of Matt's voice made it actually frightening.