Massive asteroid could hit Earth in 2182, warn scientists.

[Analog]

A massive asteroid might crash into Earth in the year 2182, scientists have warned.
The asteroid, called 1999 RQ36, has a 1-in-1,000 chance of actually hitting the Earth, but half of that risk corresponds to a potential impact in the year 2182.
It was first discovered in 1999 and is more than 1,800 feet across. If an asteroid of this size hit the Earth it would cause widespread devastation and possible mass extinction.

And scientists say that any attempt to try and divert the asteroid and save the Earth will have to take place more than 100 years before it is due to hit to have any chance of success.

Artist's impression of the Chicxulub crater on the Yukatan peninsula in Mexico. The massive impact of the asteroid may have been responsible for the extinction of the dinosaurs

If the asteroid had not been spotted until after 2080 it would be impossible to divert it from its target, they warned in a new research paper.
While the odds may seem long, they are far shorter than that of the asteroid Apophis, which currently has a 1 in 250,000 chance of striking Earth in 2036.

An image of 1999 RQ36, the asteroid which has a 1/1000 chance of hitting Earth

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencet...Earth-2182-warn-scientists.html#ixzz0uyUguxzj
​

 

[Sea Moose]

Our doom looks like eggs?

 

[FelixDeCat]

 

[Exterous]

At least we have a few years to prepare for it

 

[Sea Moose]

At least we have a few years to prepare for it

plenty of years of fapping lefT!

 

[dfuze]

Our doom looks like eggs?

look more like meatballs to me

 

[Exterous]

plenty of years of fapping lefT!

The pictures of the asteroid do look somewhat like boobies...

 

[Sea Moose]

The pictures of the asteroid do look somewhat like boobies...

.... i came..... ()

 

[khon]

Not buying it at all.

Look at the technology we had a hundred years ago, then look at what we have no, then try to imagine what we'll have in another 100+ years. And you're telling me we won't be able to destroy or divert a little 1800-foot piece of rock ?

 

[2Xtreme21]

Not buying it at all.

Look at the technology we had a hundred years ago, then look at what we have no, then try to imagine what we'll have in another 100+ years. And you're telling me we won't be able to destroy or divert a little 1800-foot piece of rock ?

Srsly... Bruce Willis did it back in 1998.

 

[StrangerGuy]

2182?



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[Sentrosi2121]

So are you saying that 2012 isn't the end of the world?

 

[Fingolfin269]

Gather guns and ammo before it's too late.

 

[Sentrosi2121]

Develop a sound track to Armageddon II....

 

[JTsyo]

Not buying it at all.

Look at the technology we had a hundred years ago, then look at what we have no, then try to imagine what we'll have in another 100+ years. And you're telling me we won't be able to destroy or divert a little 1800-foot piece of rock ?

This is what I was thinking too when I read it. Think they forgot the phrase, with current technology. Though if we can deflect it 100 years earlier, that would be the better option than taking a chance that we can do it later.

 

[SlitheryDee]

With 172 years forewarning we should be able to leisurely aim our research in the general direction of technology that might divert the asteroid and succeed with time to spare.

 

[Cogman]

Looks like NASA just got a new mission (that isn't a waste of money) Asteroid deflection.

Small note, while technology has definitely made big changes in the last 100 years, it hasn't been THAT big. we still don't have (practical) flying cars! Any prediction of what direction tech goes would be a long shot.

 

[Cogman]

BTW 6.2+ miles is considered extinction class. This thing is really pretty tiny.

 

[Fritzo]

This is what I was thinking too when I read it. Think they forgot the phrase, with current technology. Though if we can deflect it 100 years earlier, that would be the better option than taking a chance that we can do it later.

Being that far out, they could do a couple of things with current technology:

1. Hit one side of the asteroid with a laser. Not to destroy it, but to cause a heat differential that would act like a thruster---nudging it on to a safer course.

2. Attach a "pendulum" satellite to the asteroid. This would act like a shotput swinging around the thrower---after the asteroid has wobbled to a safer orbit you can jettison the satellite.

3. Land an ion thruster on it's surface. It's weak thrust over decades would inch it out of the way. (This assumes that the asteroid is solid and not a clump of pebbles).

Unfortunately funding on development of these projects is almost non-existent, mainly because those that dispense funding find these things to be low priority.

 

[rudder]

I need to go find some ladies to have some unprotected sex with. 1 in a 1000 odds it won't make a difference.

 

[Cogman]

I need to go find some ladies to have some unprotected sex with. 1 in a 1000 odds it won't make a difference.

Well, honestly as time goes by, we will only get more precise odds.

 

[Fritzo]

BTW- here is a more accurate and less sensational article:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38434537/ns/technology_and_science-space/

 

[Eli]

How come these things are even given odds? Shouldn't we be able to tell if it's course takes it to Earth? What is the variable?

 

[JTsyo]

Being that far out, they could do a couple of things with current technology:

1. Hit one side of the asteroid with a laser. Not to destroy it, but to cause a heat differential that would act like a thruster---nudging it on to a safer course.

2. Attach a "pendulum" satellite to the asteroid. This would act like a shotput swinging around the thrower---after the asteroid has wobbled to a safer orbit you can jettison the satellite.

3. Land an ion thruster on it's surface. It's weak thrust over decades would inch it out of the way. (This assumes that the asteroid is solid and not a clump of pebbles).

Unfortunately funding on development of these projects is almost non-existent, mainly because those that dispense funding find these things to be low priority.

4. Attach a large solar sail to it.

 

[child of wonder]

Awesome. We don't have to worry about the deficit after all.