Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Originally posted by: Shad0hawK
Originally posted by: CADkindaGUY
So Manufacturing job numbers determine if it's a "real" recovery? How many manufacturing jobs will it take to become a "real" recovery? Like I said - I'm just curious to know when other people will decide the recovery is "real".
CkG
maybe the same people who answer your question will anwer mine
among economists a recession is generally 2 consecutive quarters of negative economic growth.
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so when did the definition change and who changed it? was it politically motivated?(on both sides...) will the "resession" be miraculously over if komrade kerry gets elected and the definition economists use is "re-discovered"? does CNN, and the average libderal know more about economics than yale and harvard economics professors do?
how do others here define recession?
So this is what they are teaching in College now at MacroEconomics101.
From your Georgia State University link:
defines a recession more generally as "a period of declining real incomes and rising unemployment." In some cases, he says, two quarters may be too much. "If you had a big enough fall in one quarter, you'd probably call that a recession, too," he says.
The NBER is a nonpartisan, nonprofit think tank devoted to promoting the understanding of how the economy works. Founded in 1920 and based in Cambridge, Mass., the NBER has been dating expansions and recessions for decades. At their Web site (
www.nber.org), readers can examine the ebb and flow of U.S. economic growth back to 1854.
Their definition is "a recurring period of decline in total output, income, employment, and trade, usually lasting from six months to a year, and marked by widespread contractions in many sectors of the economy."
In simpler terms, they refer to it as the three Ds: depth, duration and dispersion. That means it can't just be one part of the economy, like the manufacturing sector, which right now many think is already in its own recession. In addition, it can neither be too short nor too mild.
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So basically the Economists are saying there is no such thing as a Recession. I'm sure they would say the Depression never happened either.