March Madness math problem

[SP33Demon]

Ok, it shouldn't be that hard but: what are the odds of correctly guessing the winner of every game of March Madness and the 65 teams? It's been awhile for me.

 

[royaldank]

From Google (doesn't include the playin game, though):

The probability of picking all 63 tournament games correctly is 9.2 quintillion-to-1.

 

[jagr10]

Originally posted by: SP33Demon
Ok, it shouldn't be that hard but: what are the odds of correctly guessing the winner of every game of March Madness and the 65 teams? It's been awhile for me.

I dunno, but they are not in your favour so don't bother putting money down! You'd also have to consider the fact that some teams ranked lower seem to play better against a few teams ranked higher. It happens in all sports.

 

[shenaniganz]

Originally posted by: royaldank
From Google (doesn't include the playin game, though):

The probability of picking all 63 tournament games correctly is 9.2 quintillion-to-1.

So you're telling me there's a chance...

 

[Thraxen]

1 in 2^64

But that would just be random picks. Most people have an educated guesses for most games, so the actual chance would be far better.

 

[UncleWai]

You do know the probabilities of winning is not 50/50?
So there's not an actual number you can find out.

 

[royaldank]

Originally posted by: UncleWai
You do know the probabilities of winning is not 50/50?
So there's not an actual number you can find out.

No, there is a finite number of ways to fill out the brackets.

 

[bigalt]

yeah but some games are almost a sure bet, so the probability to pick the winner of that game is like .95.


but since the odds for each game are impossible to scientifically assess, you can't really figure out the odds of picking the entire bracket correctly.

 

[techfuzz]

Originally posted by: Thraxen
1 in 2^64

But that would just be random picks. Most people have an educated guesses for most games, so that actual chance would be far better.

Yeah, what he said.

techfuzz

 

[TheNinja]

A #1 seed has never lost to a #16 seed. ---- Fun fact for the day

 

[royaldank]

Originally posted by: bigalt
yeah but some games are almost a sure bet, so the probability to pick the winner of that game is like .95.


but since the odds for each game are impossible to scientifically assess, you can't really figure out the odds of picking the entire bracket correctly.

All you do is take all the possible ways to fill out the brackets and there you have it. Odds aren't based on personal opinion or thoughts.

 

[Thraxen]

All you do is take all the possible ways to fill out the brackets and there you have it. Odds aren't based on personal opinion or thoughts.

That's not true. We are talking sports here. Look at all the Vegas odds, those are indeed based on more than simple math. Your chances of guessing correctly by using your knowledge of the teams will be FAR better than just random picks.

 

[SP33Demon]

Originally posted by: techfuzz

Originally posted by: Thraxen
1 in 2^64

But that would just be random picks. Most people have an educated guesses for most games, so that actual chance would be far better.

Yeah, what he said.

techfuzz

Yes this was basically the answer I was looking for (randomly picked games). But maybe you could find a more thorough way of calculating it assuming that all the higher seeds win, barring x amount of upsets?

 

[HomeBrewerDude]

use the binomial distribution to answer this question

 

[royaldank]

Originally posted by: Thraxen

All you do is take all the possible ways to fill out the brackets and there you have it. Odds aren't based on personal opinion or thoughts.

That's not true. We are talking sports here. Look at all the Vegas odds, those are indeed based on more than simple math. Your chances of guessing correctly by using your knowledge of the teams will be FAR better than just random picks.

It's just odds man.

Sure, a #16 has never won, but that doesn't mean they cannot or wont at some point.

Odds of correctly picking an entire bracket really does boil down to how many ways it can possibly be filled out. I'm not sure what that number is, but it does exist.

This year, favorites in college ball have won less than 75% of the games. This indicates that 'upsets' happen quite frequently. So, picking just the favorites would net you less than 3 out of 4 corrrect picks.

 

[TuxDave]

Originally posted by: royaldank

Originally posted by: Thraxen

All you do is take all the possible ways to fill out the brackets and there you have it. Odds aren't based on personal opinion or thoughts.

That's not true. We are talking sports here. Look at all the Vegas odds, those are indeed based on more than simple math. Your chances of guessing correctly by using your knowledge of the teams will be FAR better than just random picks.

It's just odds man.

Sure, a #16 has never won, but that doesn't mean they cannot or wont at some point.

Odds of correctly picking an entire bracket really does boil down to how many ways it can possibly be filled out. I'm not sure what that number is, but it does exist.

This year, favorites in college ball have won less than 75% of the games. This indicates that 'upsets' happen quite frequently. So, picking just the favorites would net you less than 3 out of 4 corrrect picks.

If you want to take into account the unequal probability of a team winning and the fact that a person is more likely to choose the better team, the fastest way is this.

# of winners a season/ # of brackets guessed