Make Your PREdiction - We WILL Know the Truth (soon re: the war's outcome)!

[apoppin]

It occured to me - during the barrage of flames and even "friendly-fire" on this forum - that we WILL know the outcome of this war pretty soon (a few months at best). Either the Anti-war protesters are right or they will be shown to be wrong (and vice versa)

(as I see it) The Major Possibillities (with many variations) are:

1) The Coalition Wins Handily (I did not say "easily") and topples Saddam's regime (within "acceptable losses") and Bush is re-elected.

2) The war drags on and on and on with loss of many Coalition forces and Bush is defeated in 2004.

3) My Doomsday scenario actually plays out and jihad occurs - Bush is Impeached.

4) Something Else Unforseen (aliens intervene, Jesus AND Mohammed return, Saddam surrenders, etc.)

Please step up the the mic and PROUDLY state your opinion of what YOU think is gonna happen:

PLEASE do NOT comment on other person's OPINIONS. This is a RECORD for all to see when the War's OUTCOME becomes clear and . . . quite frankly, I'd like to see who is the MOST accurate analyst on the forum.

I'll go first . . . (me clears my throat and solemly states for the record, my scenario - #3 (doomsday - total destruction of Baghdad, massive loss of life followed by jihad) . . . I guess I am a bit pessamistic on the outcome of this war.

What's your opinion? (again - PLEASE - do not comment on our opinions as there are PLENTY of OTHER threads for that)

 

[Moonbeam]

My opinion is that we will win the war at the cost of tremendous hate from the middle east. We will experience increased terrorism and the inabolity to travel the world comfortably as Americans. We will suffer economic reprisals. This can be offset, in time perhaps, by a real effort and visible signs that we actually have improved the lives of the Iraqi people to the extent that they actually express gratitude and to the extent that we really do return their country to them. We have to establish a real record of idealism over imperialistic self interest. Just my opinion. I believe, additionally, that Jihad, as it is intended by violent Islamic fanatics in not what real Jihad is or was intended in the Koran. I think most Moslims know this and that truth is the most powerful ally one can have. Fanatical Islam is fed by frustration and poverty and ignorance and by violent repressive governments. Get rid to those and it will dry up and disappear.

 

[steell]

My prediction:

(1) the war is going to end (sooner or later)
(2) Coalition will win
(3)Jihad will go on (It's not about Iraq anyway)
(4)Wars will still be fought (as they have been continuosly throughout history)
(5) People will die and babies will be born (Life goes on)
(6) Economy will improve and then it will get worse (again, as it has throughout history)

Ho-Hum, another day, another dollar.

Edit:
(7) I will start using the "Preview" button, so I don't have to edit to correct my spelling

 

[Jmman]

Originally posted by: Moonbeam
Fanatical Islam is fed by frustration and poverty and ignorance and by violent repressive governments. Get rid to those and it will dry up and disappear.

The end of the world as we know it is near, because I actually agree with one small segment of a post by Moonie!!! :Q I saw someone post in another thread asking why it appears that many people live in such poverty in the middle east when they hold tremendous wealth from their oil reserves. One of the main reasons is that the religious clerics and political leaders maintain strict control over the populace, and the fact that their people live in such poverty helps expand that control. The difficulty is how do you get rid of poverty and ignorance when their own leaders are the ones maintaining those conditions? That is the 2 million dollar question. Bush firmly believes that by setting up a democracy in Iraq, this will lead to an economic and social revolution in the middle east. Time will tell if he is correct, but I applaud him for his courage in the face of adversity....Here is an interesting article about the roots of anti-amercicanism in the middle east. link

A little excerpt....
""Let the American president know that he is the most repulsive member of the human race today, because of the injustice he has imposed on the Muslim nation. Today the Koran has become his enemy." These are not the words of Osama bin Laden, but those of the late Ayatollah Khomeini, arguably the godfather of hate towards America. Indeed, the phenomenon called Osama bin Laden did not happen in a vacuum. The roots of Islamic terrorism against America were nurtured by the founding father of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Since his arrival on the international scene in 1979, the Ayatollah Khomeini was at the vanguard of hate-filled anti-American statements. And, at every Friday prayer sermon since then for the last 22 years ,the Islamic Republic of Iran has perpetuated the atmosphere of violence against the United States in the Middle East by chanting the refrain: "Death to America."

His hatred of America was not based on any religious precepts, but was purely a political power play. The man whom he replaced, the Shah of Iran, was modernizing his country with American assistance. The only way to do so was to limit the power of the members of the clergy who were rigidly opposed to modernization. Any move forward was viewed as an assault on the traditional power base of the clergy in Iran. Therefore, secular education, full participation of women in nation-building and family planning were viewed as a direct threat.

 

[apoppin]

Originally posted by: Jmman

Originally posted by: Moonbeam
Fanatical Islam is fed by frustration and poverty and ignorance and by violent repressive governments. Get rid to those and it will dry up and disappear.

The end of the world as we know it is near, because I actually agree with one small segment of a post by Moonie!!! :Q I saw someone post in another thread asking why it appears that many people live in such poverty in the middle east when they hold tremendous wealth from their oil reserves. One of the main reasons is that the religious clerics and political leaders maintain strict control over the populace, and the fact that their poeple live in such poverty helps expand that control. The difficulty is how do you get rid of poverty and ignorance when their own leaders are the ones maintaining those conditions? That is the 2 million dollar question. Bush firmly believes that by setting up a democracy in Iraq, this will lead to an economic and social revolution in the middle east. Time will tell if he is correct, but I applaud him for his courage in the face of adversity....Here is an interesting article about the roots of anti-amercicanism in the middle east. link

A little excerpt....
""Let the American president know that he is the most repulsive member of the human race today, because of the injustice he has imposed on the Muslim nation. Today the Koran has become his enemy." These are not the words of Osama bin Laden, but those of the late Ayatollah Khomeini, arguably the godfather of hate towards America. Indeed, the phenomenon called Osama bin Laden did not happen in a vacuum. The roots of Islamic terrorism against America were nurtured by the founding father of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Since his arrival on the international scene in 1979, the Ayatollah Khomeini was at the vanguard of hate-filled anti-American statements. And, at every Friday prayer sermon since then for the last 22 years ,the Islamic Republic of Iran has perpetuated the atmosphere of violence against the United States in the Middle East by chanting the refrain: "Death to America."

His hatred of America was not based on any religious precepts, but was purely a political power play. The man whom he replaced, the Shah of Iran, was modernizing his country with American assistance. The only way to do so was to limit the power of the members of the clergy who were rigidly opposed to modernization. Any move forward was viewed as an assault on the traditional power base of the clergy in Iran. Therefore, secular education, full participation of women in nation-building and family planning were viewed as a direct threat.

So I am not sure what YOUR prediction is . . . (?)

I'd really prefer NO comments on another's post unless it is to ask for clarification (as I am doing with yours).

Anyone else BRAVE enough to step up and give his own PREDICTION for all to see? I really think a lot of the posters here would prefer to "flame" others with comments like "get a clue" without stating anyh support for their OWN beliefs. I don't want to see this CRAP in "my" thread and will ask a mod to lock it if it "gets out of hand" . . .

JUST predictions PLEASE!

 

[Martin]

1. The war will be over by the end of may.
2. There will be more coalition and iraqi casualties than currently estimated.
Now this is where I am no longer sure...
3. The US and UK will be faced with a similar, but less intensive, Israeli like situation - suicide bombings, local population that hates them etc.
4. They will have to pull out sooner than planned, become embaressed, but will still claim to be victorious
5. If Bush is reelected, there will be at least 1 other similarly contrived war.

 

[JellyBaby]

Anyone else BRAVE enough to step up and give his own PREDICTION for all to see?

As if such requires bravery!

The Coalition will win the war eventually in the sense that the Baaaath party and Saddum are destroyed.

The Iraqi people will generally view the results with skeptism and not outright joy simply because America left them out to dry 10 years ago (once bitten, twice shy).

A provisional government will be setup by the West, not the U.N. Conditions for the people of Iraq will slowly improve. The U.N. will whine about not having complete oversight over the reconstruction and administration of New Iraq.

In the years to follow the new government will be constantly challenged by existing iraqi tribes/castes for power. This will require the presence of U.S. troops for at least 10 years. We may or may not be out of Afghanistan in this time frame....I dont' think we will.

In the meantime the oil fields will open and Iraq will establish deals with Western and European nations to trade for oil.

The world will assume the longevity of the U.S. leadership in Iraq means the U.S. simply wanted power/control of oil all along.

I think in the short-term terror acts against the west will increase and we'll be less secure. No idea what will happen for the long term but being an optimist I'm hoping for the best.

 

[ManSnake]

We are all sinners in the hands of an angry god. There will be another great flood to rid this world of ugliness and evil. One day we will be no more...

 

[glugglug]

I'm torn between #3 and #4. You can never overlook those aliens.

More detailed prediction:

The war will drag on for at least several months, as they won't find Saddam because he has been on a vacation in the bahamas for several years or something. Lots of casualties from people attacking those searching for him. They won't find the WMD either as surely one of their neighbors in Syria, Iran, or perhaps (most likely?) Saudi Arabia is keeping them safe from UN search parties.

The guy that is put in charge of the new Iraqi gov't after the war might be even crazier than Saddam, or at least he will appear that way due to greater motivation.

When the WMD are NOT found after a vietnam-like war, other middle-eastern countries will use it to declare Jihad against the U.S., and perhaps the French will join them. Our wonderful aim when fighting the French will bring their neighbors into this too.

 

[aswedc]

The roots of Islamic terrorism against America were nurtured by the founding father of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Don't forget that the United States is responsible for the chain of events leading to a fundamentalist Iran - starting with the CIA backed overthrow of the Prime Minister in 1953.

Anyway my prediction is a mix between #1 and #2. I say the coalition wins with moderate losses, which are still too much for a public promised a short, quick war with Iraqis cheering on our troops as liberators. I also think while we will find some chemical weapons, the discoveries will be no where as severe as administration would have you believe. Those who ate up the Bush propaganda hook, line, and sinker without doing any research into the facts behind the claims - which is the majority of Americans - will be in for a big surprise and Bush will not be re-elected.

 

[NesuD]

1) The Coalition Wins Handily (I did not say "easily") and topples Saddam's regime (within "acceptable losses") and Bush is re-elected.

My guess is no later than mid may Saddams regime will be toppled and Baghdad will be in our control. How long we have to stay to hold it together until the iraqi people can establish a new government is another question entirely but the major military portion of the war will be over before memorial day.

 

[Ornery]

"2. There will be more coalition and iraqi casualties than currently estimated."

Links to "current estimates"?

 

[apoppin]

I really want to COMPLEMENT the "brave" predictors, SO FAR (well most of them) for stating their OWN predictions WITHOUT commenting on OTHER's predictions.
(Ornery, start your OWN damn thread; is this really "clarification" or BAITING? -- )

Mahalo! It takes a LOT of RESTRAINT (I know my tounge is bleeding from where I "bit" it several times after reading some posts) to NOT comment.

 

[FoBoT]

Originally posted by: apoppin
1) The Coalition Wins Handily (I did not say "easily") and topples Saddam's regime (within "acceptable losses")

we will win soon with low casualties on the coalition side and few collateral damaged civilians (from our stuff anyway, saddam might wipe his own people out)

 

[ndee]

I think it will be a 2nd Vietnam War. The American are so much more advanced what the technology concerns, but they still have big problems with the whole environment down there(sand storms, etc.)

 

[Ornery]

Originally posted by: apoppin
I really want to COMPLEMENT the "brave" predictors, SO FAR (well most of them) for stating their OWN predictions WITHOUT commenting on OTHER's predictions.
(Ornery, start your OWN damn thread; is this really "clarification" or BAITING? -- )

Mahalo! It takes a LOT of RESTRAINT (I know my tounge is bleeding from where I "bit" it several times after reading some posts) to NOT comment.

I haven't run across any "current estimates", have you? These links should be interesting.


BTW, my prediction is that we'; prevail with minimal casualties on our side and civilians, unless Hussein kills his own, but that's not our doing.

Terrorism will continue due to the friggen Palestinians, nothing to do with whether we get rid of Hussein or not. Hmmm, without his money to pay suicide bombers, maybe it will subside... just a thought.

 

[apoppin]

Originally posted by: Ornery

Originally posted by: apoppin

I haven't run across any "current estimates", have you? These links should be interesting.


BTW, my prediction is that we'; prevail with minimal casualties on our side and civilians, unless Hussein kills his own, but that's not our doing.

Terrorism will continue due to the friggen Palestinians, nothing to do with whether we get rid of Hussein or not. Hmmm, without his money to pay suicide bombers, maybe it will subside... just a thought.

Since you asked me a direct question, I will answer it:

Yes, you are right - it would be interesting to see "official" (coalition) estimates.

And I apologize if I came across too strongly . . . I have seen the best threads deteriorate into name-calling flame fest here.
When I saw you post a "comment" without posting your own prediction, I was a bit "worried".

 

[seawolf21]

we win but saddam uses WMDs last minute. But Bush is defeated in 2004 even with the win.

 

[Martin]

perhaps "current estimates" was a bad phrase to use. What I meant was there'll be more casualties than people thought there would be at the beggining.

 

[jjones]

To me the question is not if we will win the war. We will win without too much difficulty and the time frame will be within the next few months depending upon how Baghdad plays out, it will either be shorter or slightly longer.

The real question is what happens in a post-war Iraq. It will be in the US's very best interests to cede control of the administration of post-war Iraq as quickly as possible to the UN. Let the UN sort out the establishment of what the long term government of Iraq will be.

If the US decides to retain control for any lengthy period of time, I think that the overall effect may approach close to a disaster. There are many Arab governments, as well as Islamist fanatical groups, that have a very real interest and desire to see that a post-war democratic Iraq implodes. If the US decides to stay and administer, there will be an unending terrorist campaign to disrupt the establishment of a successful Iraq. This campaign will be all the more effective if it can take place against occupying US forces rather than UN peacekeeping forces. The sooner a new government can be established in Iraq and all occupying forces removed, both US and UN, the better it will be, but in the interim it would be much better for the UN to be the administrator as much as it pains me to say that.

 

[nergee]

1) The Coalition Wins Easily, the US economy starts growing again and Bush is re-elected.

 

[gil11542]

I pick # 1

 

[JellyBaby]

It will be in the US's very best interests to cede control of the administration of post-war Iraq as quickly as possible to the UN. Let the UN sort out the establishment of what the long term government of Iraq will be.

I don't think that will happen. The U.N. may be allowed to handle some aspects of the post-conquest era but the West will likely handle security, oil field management and establishment of a new government.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

The US wins the war.
The area proves as difficult to rule as the Brits found them after the end of WWI
US attempts to form interim govt. Different factions will not even sit at the same table. Military rule by the US is the result.
Suicide bombings and terrorist activities take toll of US soldiers.
A Palestinian/Israeli scenario develops with each side exacting revenge.
Troops eventually withdrawn after enormous anti Occupation sentiment on the part of US citizens.
Iraq crumbles into disarray. Massive deaths due to disease and lack of basic services.
Iraq fragments into factions.
The Iraq problem solved.

 

[JellyBaby]

Originally posted by: Hayabusarider
The US wins the war.
The area proves as difficult to rule as the Brits found them after the end of WWI
US attempts to form interim govt. Different factions will not even sit at the same table. Military rule by the US is the result.
Suicide bombings and terrorist activities take toll of US soldiers.
A Palestinian/Israeli scenario develops with each side exacting revenge.
Troops eventually withdrawn after enormous anti Occupation sentiment on the part of US citizens.
Iraq crumbles into disarray. Massive deaths due to disease and lack of basic services.
Iraq fragments into factions.
The Iraq problem solved.

That wouldn't be a bad outcome in some people's minds. Iraq would be too chaotic to build WMDs or to threaten anyone outside its borders. Yet there wouldn't be enough unity to threaten oil exports. Terrorism might still thrive in that environment, though, and it would take significant Western attention to keep things under relative control. So lets hope another "hotspot" doesn't flame up during your doomsday scenario!