LOL, Walt Mosspuppet actually posts an insightful article

[Pliablemoose]

http://mosspuppet.com/2010/06/22/is-iphone-4-killing-androids-momentum/

IMHO, Mosspuppet nailed it. The iPhone is a good, perhaps great smartphone, and it will have a significant marketshare, but Android will go the way of Windows/MS and dominate the market.

 

[TheWart]

Interesting read, and while I think many of his points make sense, I still think the world is big enough for Apple and Android. Apple makes way more money off of iOS (through hardware sales) than Google does off of Android (through ad/affiliate sales).

As long as consumers have choice, it's all good. It's less important if that means 70% android 30% apple or if that is reversed.

 

[shortylickens]

Android will be stripped down and eventually put on pretty much all phones. I dont think Apple would do something similar.

 

[dwell]

IMHO, Mosspuppet nailed it. The iPhone is a good, perhaps great smartphone, and it will have a significant marketshare, but Android will go the way of Windows/MS and dominate the market.

Android is already fragmented beyond repair. 1.5, 1.6, 2.1, 2.2, Sense, Motoblur, carrier mods, manufacturer mods, disparate hardware/resolutions/aspect ratios/processing power, no clear demarcation between phones and tablets. It will only get worse as Android floods the market with absolutely no checks and balances from Google.

At the end of the day all that's going to matter is developer support. Most developers don't want to touch Android. While there may be iterations of iPhone, it's a much more stable platform in comparison and infinitely more developer friendly (not to mention lucrative).

Android can beat the iPhone in number of units on the market, but what does it matter if the software support is not there?

 

[QueBert]

http://mosspuppet.com/2010/06/22/is-iphone-4-killing-androids-momentum/

IMHO, Mosspuppet nailed it. The iPhone is a good, perhaps great smartphone, and it will have a significant marketshare, but Android will go the way of Windows/MS and dominate the market.

How can Android dominate the market when they'll never catch RIM, yes I said never. Passing Apple isn't really an accomplishment because Apple has 1 phone a year, 1 phone. Android will have dozens of handsets by the time the next iPhone comes out. And Apple will continue to dominate the Apps market. So really it'll still be RIM > Apple > Google, and I doubt that'll ever change. iTunes/App store is just to big and powerful and is tied into not just phones, but the Touch & iPad too.

 

[AstroManLuca]

Android is already fragmented beyond repair. 1.5, 1.6, 2.1, 2.2, Sense, Motoblur, carrier mods, manufacturer mods, disparate hardware/resolutions/aspect ratios/processing power, no clear demarcation between phones and tablets. It will only get worse as Android floods the market with absolutely no checks and balances from Google.

At the end of the day all that's going to matter is developer support. Most developers don't want to touch Android. While there may be iterations of iPhone, it's a much more stable platform in comparison and infinitely more developer friendly (not to mention lucrative).

Android can beat the iPhone in number of units on the market, but what does it matter if the software support is not there?

Chicken and egg. If Android eventually dominates the market, developers will go to it. They're not going to pass up the largest market share because they're concerned about fragmentation and disparate hardware. Look at Windows. How much Mac-only software is out there? Now how much Windows-only or cross-platform software is available? Yeah. Just because Windows has disparate hardware doesn't mean software developers avoid it.

 

[TheWart]

Chicken and egg. If Android eventually dominates the market, developers will go to it. They're not going to pass up the largest market share because they're concerned about fragmentation and disparate hardware. Look at Windows. How much Mac-only software is out there? Now how much Windows-only or cross-platform software is available? Yeah. Just because Windows has disparate hardware doesn't mean software developers avoid it.

Yea, but if people are less willing to pay for Android apps, then I don't think you can draw an exact parrallel to win/mac on the desktop. Maybe mac/linux is a more apt comparison. Linux is way more open than windows and mac...yet not a whole lot of linux specific development for consumer software....

http://larvalabs.com/blog/android/android-market-payouts-total-2-of-app-stores-1b/

 

[theeedude]

Apple users will continue to be cash cows for Apple and developers. No doubt about it. It's entirely possible that Android will dominate in market share while Apple continues to get the highest profit margin business, as it's happening in computers.
That said, I haven't used paid Windows apps in ages, all I use is a web browser and Flash web 2.0 apps, and some freeware like bittorrent here and there. I think for me it's Android all the way. I don't think apps are going to be deal maker or deal breaker for most people, aside from maybe avid gamers. Flash may be. You can debate all day long about quality and quantity of apps for each platform, it's fairly subjective. But you either can render Flash pages or you can't, it's very binary. Mobile Flash 10.1 launched today, BTW.

 

[TheWart]

Apple users will continue to be cash cows for Apple and developers. No doubt about it. It's entirely possible that Android will dominate in market share while Apple continues to get the highest profit margin business, as it's happening in computers.
That said, I haven't used paid Windows apps in ages, all I use is a web browser and Flash web 2.0 apps, and some freeware like bittorrent here and there. I think for me it's Android all the way. I don't think apps are going to be deal maker or deal breaker for most people, aside from maybe avid gamers. Flash may be. You can debate all day long about quality and quantity of apps for each platform, it's fairly subjective. But you either can render Flash pages or you can't, it's very binary. Mobile Flash 10.1 launched today, BTW.

Perhaps.

Personally, I find it ludicrous to suggest that the quality/breadth of apps would play second fiddle to being able to run flash, but I guess we are lucky in our disagreement because we will be able to see who was right in ~1 year or so. Smartphone sales have exploded, and as none has yet really been able to run flash lag free consumers have moved on, and I think Adobe missed that boat looong ago, but we shall see....

 

[dwell]

Chicken and egg. If Android eventually dominates the market, developers will go to it. They're not going to pass up the largest market share because they're concerned about fragmentation and disparate hardware. Look at Windows. How much Mac-only software is out there? Now how much Windows-only or cross-platform software is available? Yeah. Just because Windows has disparate hardware doesn't mean software developers avoid it.

Comparing the mobile market to the OS market of 25 years ago has always been flawed, IMO. Market share does not necessarily equate to a rich app ecosystem. If they are just flooding the market with devices, there's no guarantee that the people getting devices will by apps. Chances are they are just looking for cheap phones.

 

[dwell]

I don't think apps are going to be deal maker or deal breaker for most people, aside from maybe avid gamers. Flash may be. You can debate all day long about quality and quantity of apps for each platform, it's fairly subjective. But you either can render Flash pages or you can't, it's very binary. Mobile Flash 10.1 launched today, BTW.

Except that many, many Flash apps don't work right on mobile devices. Site owners are going to have to decide whether to rewrite their Flash code to accommodate smaller screens and touch interfaces just to target what's a niche right now or either or rewrite it in a modern, more ubiquitous technology.

 

[sswingle]

I was with him until he basically called anyone with an Android an idiot, and he did call dumbphone users idiots.

 

[sswingle]

Android is already fragmented beyond repair. 1.5, 1.6, 2.1, 2.2, Sense, Motoblur, carrier mods, manufacturer mods, disparate hardware/resolutions/aspect ratios/processing power, no clear demarcation between phones and tablets. It will only get worse as Android floods the market with absolutely no checks and balances from Google.

At the end of the day all that's going to matter is developer support. Most developers don't want to touch Android. While there may be iterations of iPhone, it's a much more stable platform in comparison and infinitely more developer friendly (not to mention lucrative).

Android can beat the iPhone in number of units on the market, but what does it matter if the software support is not there?

Half of all Android phones in use today have at least 2.1 on them already. Sense and motoblur are just overlays to the UI, they don't effect a 3rd party app AT ALL.

 

[dwell]

Half of all Android phones in use today have at least 2.1 on them already. Sense and motoblur are just overlays to the UI, they don't effect a 3rd party app AT ALL.

The split is 50% on 2.1, with 25% on 1.5 and 1.6 each. 2.2 will probably split it 25/25/25/25 by August. Worst is Android owners are at the mercy of their carriers for upgrades.

Knock Apple all you want, but with nobody governing the standards you get a mess like this. Android is more akin to Linux desktop than Windows. You got a bunch of "distros" with no standards or consistency between each.

And yes, vendor UIs do effect apps. You cannot rely on your app looking/behaving 100% as you intended it to with vendor mods. One example is that Samsung added spring and ease to the table views in Android on their phones. It's a minor, cosmetic thing, but it leads to inconsistent look and behavior. When vendors skin UI elements it's even more annoying for developers.

 

[Deeko]

On one hand, Google is doing its part to help with fragmentation in Froyo by making core apps part of the market like they did with maps - that way they can push updates to these things without having to wait for HTC to update Sense, the carrier to approve it, etc.

On the other hand, Google themselves have admitted that the biggest struggle with fragmentation is just different devices. When talking about why their keyboard sucks, they mention how its a lot harder to make a solid keyboard when it has to be solid across multiple device sizes. He's got a point. Also, think about game developers...a lot harder to deal with devising a solid input scheme that will work on every device.

That aside, we all know (yes, all of us) at this point that it is absolutely laughable to say devs won't touch Android. Does it have as many apps as Apple? No. Are they generally as polished as iPhone apps? No. Are there still tens of thousands of apps, with thousands more pouring in every month? Yes. Are the big name development studios/apps being ported to Android at a much better rate than they used to? Yes. Lets be serious, folks.

Although all of this flame slinging (initiated by the usual suspects) has little to do with the article at hand anyway.

 

[Zebo]

Hardly analogous to PC vs MAC

Smart phones cost about the same Macs didn't
iPhone has an Army of developers Macs didn't
iphone will be sold by more retailers and maybe all carriers if rumor is true unlike career locked proprietary Androids such as evo.
iPhone has market saturation Mac didn't.

Then we have matters of law and the slow wheels of justice are going to rule on Android makers copying which could put a severe damper on Andriod's competitiveness..


In sum don't say Apple is doomed just yet, people have been wrong before.

Apple has a trump card too ya know. Its called "FREE" phones. With huge profit margin on iPhone $340-$400 Apple could trivially give the phones away with carrier subsidy.

 

[Zebo]

The split is 50% on 2.1, with 25% on 1.5 and 1.6 each. 2.2 will probably split it 25/25/25/25 by August. Worst is Android owners are at the mercy of their carriers for upgrades.

Knock Apple all you want, but with nobody governing the standards you get a mess like this. Android is more akin to Linux desktop than Windows. You got a bunch of "distros" with no standards or consistency between each.

And yes, vendor UIs do effect apps. You cannot rely on your app looking/behaving 100% as you intended it to with vendor mods. One example is that Samsung added spring and ease to the table views in Android on their phones. It's a minor, cosmetic thing, but it leads to inconsistent look and behavior. When vendors skin UI elements it's even more annoying for developers.

Excellent point and we all know how well that took off.

You should compare garmins GPS phone with Evo night and day different.

 

[theeedude]

Except that many, many Flash apps don't work right on mobile devices. Site owners are going to have to decide whether to rewrite their Flash code to accommodate smaller screens and touch interfaces just to target what's a niche right now or either or rewrite it in a modern, more ubiquitous technology.

I guess we'll see with Froyo and Mobile Flash 10.1 with hardware acceleration.
If I am a Flash programmer, it's going to be a lot easier for me to modify my programs for smaller screen and touch screen than to rewrite it from Scratch in a new language.
It's a personal preference. For me I would not buy a smartphone or tablet that is not able to render full size web in its entirety. Apps are just gravy, but I want the full internet first and foremost. Buying a mobile internet device that can't do Flash is kind of like buying a phone that keeps dropping calls. It can have the best apps, wouldn't matter to me.

 

[TheWart]

I guess we'll see with Froyo and Mobile Flash 10.1 with hardware acceleration.
If I am a Flash programmer, it's going to be a lot easier for me to modify my programs for smaller screen and touch screen than to rewrite it from Scratch in a new language.
It's a personal preference. For me I would not buy a smartphone or tablet that is not able to render full size web in its entirety. Apps are just gravy, but I want the full internet first and foremost. Buying a mobile internet device that can't do Flash is kind of like buying a phone that keeps dropping calls. It can have the best apps, wouldn't matter to me.

That is fair enough if you need to browse sites that use flash, but I can't think of a single site I go to on a regular basis where I really need flash. Whether news-NYT/Salon/CNN/LeMonde/WashPost/Drudge or tech-Engadget/Giz/Fark/Techcrunch or finance-Marketwatch/yahoo or 'fun'-Facebook/AT, I don't ever need flash anymore.

 

[Medu]

The split is 50% on 2.1, with 25% on 1.5 and 1.6 each. 2.2 will probably split it 25/25/25/25 by August. Worst is Android owners are at the mercy of their carriers for upgrades.

Knock Apple all you want, but with nobody governing the standards you get a mess like this. Android is more akin to Linux desktop than Windows. You got a bunch of "distros" with no standards or consistency between each.

And yes, vendor UIs do effect apps. You cannot rely on your app looking/behaving 100% as you intended it to with vendor mods. One example is that Samsung added spring and ease to the table views in Android on their phones. It's a minor, cosmetic thing, but it leads to inconsistent look and behavior. When vendors skin UI elements it's even more annoying for developers.

The truth is most people don't care. I am going to be sexist here and say that >95% of the females that would have an Android phone wouldn't even know what version of Android is on their phone. Millons of people are still perfectly happy to be on windows XP, a 8-9 year old OS, because most people don't care!

Now the only thing that will stop Android from been the number 1 mobile OS will be Windows-at least from a market share PoV. Apple will still make more money than bought of them combined, even if it has less market share. Apple will stick to the top end of the market, as it has done with Mac's, and make huge profits on a small % of the market.

 

[theeedude]

That is fair enough if you need to browse sites that use flash, but I can't think of a single site I go to on a regular basis where I really need flash. Whether news-NYT/Salon/CNN/LeMonde/WashPost/Drudge or tech-Engadget/Giz/Fark/Techcrunch or finance-Marketwatch/yahoo or 'fun'-Facebook/AT, I don't ever need flash anymore.

I use Armorgames, pretty sweet free gaming.
I can't think of a single paid app I would use.

 

[dwell]

The truth is most people don't care. I am going to be sexist here and say that >95% of the females that would have an Android phone wouldn't even know what version of Android is on their phone. Millons of people are still perfectly happy to be on windows XP, a 8-9 year old OS, because most people don't care!

This I can agree with. Most people buy Android phones are just buying cheap phones or are getting BOGOs. They're not buying apps, really using the web, etc. I think it's the opposite with the iPhone. Apps are the highlight of the phone. "There's an app for that" is a household term.

 

[dwell]

I use Armorgames, pretty sweet free gaming.
I can't think of a single paid app I would use.

Well seeing as Android has less games worth a damn than I can count on one hand, I don't blame you.

 

[theeedude]

Well seeing as Android has less games worth a damn than I can count on one hand, I don't blame you.

I don't have Android yet, waiting for Flash support.

 

[Deeko]

This I can agree with. Most people buy Android phones are just buying cheap phones or are getting BOGOs. They're not buying apps, really using the web, etc. I think it's the opposite with the iPhone. Apps are the highlight of the phone. "There's an app for that" is a household term.

According to whom? The Android phones flying off the shelves are the Droid, Droid Incredible, Evo, etc. Ya know, the high end devices. There are indeed low end Android devices that fill out the market, but that's not where the majority of them are. Also, while yea, Verizon runs BOGOs on Droid (and all their smartphones), that doesn't mean people are only buying them because they're cheap. If that were the case, they'd be buying the Droid Eris in droves instead.

Oh, and FYI - just because Apple ran the "there's an app for that" campaign doesn't mean that no one has used it about Android phones. When that campaign started, the App Store wasn't that much bigger than the Android Market is now.

One more thing, Gizmodo ran a story this morning that said something like 81% of apps downloaded off the app store are free, and the average price for the remaining 19% is only $1.49. So while people might like their apps on iOS, its not like everything downloaded is a $20 premium app.