Let's speculate about the next iPad.

[Eug]

I just don't know how Apple will keep the iPad relevant. A few mm thinner, a finger unlock, better cameras, and such won't motivate the mainstream to pick up a new one every 2 years. I'm still using my iPad 3 and its plenty for surfing the net.

iOS 8 on the iPad 2 is slow. It's even sometimes slower on the iPad 3 by some accounts. While I could keep the iPad 2 going for a while on 7.1.2, it's really feeling long in the tooth these days. And I'd not want to use iOS 8.0.2 as my main iPad 2 OS for an extended period because of its noticeable increased lag. Its performance really shows how old the hardware is.

BTW, some of the new iOS 8 features like Handoff don't work in the iPad 2 and iPad 3.

Also, it is expected that the iPad has a longer average upgrade cycle as compared to the iPhone. IIRC, this has been acknowledged in Apple financial conference calls.

 

[desura]

If the next ipad is the same form factor, but with an A8 processor and TouchID, that would mean one thing:

skip.

Only worthwhile additions will be a new smoother form factor and increased RAM. And I guess we can dream about AMOLED screens while we're at it.

 

[mmntech]

The AMOLED screen on the Galaxy Tab S is certainly impressive, and it's at the same price point at the iPad. Apple keeps chugging along with IPS LCD displays. I guess it's a more reliable, tested technology. For an "innovative", they haven't really experimented with stuff like that.

I'm guessing it will have the same guts as the iPhone 6 with a slightly faster CPU and GPU. Touch ID is pretty much a given as well. It will definitely need more RAM because 1GB isn't enough anymore. Especially with some of the newer browsers. Ideally I'd want 3-4GB but I know that's not going to happen. 2GB is likely. If it's still 1GB, they can keep it.

They need to stick a fork in the 16GB version as well.

 

[Eug]

http://www.loopinsight.com/2014/10/08/apple-sends-out-invites-for-oct-16-special-event/

 

[Eug]

Some new iPads likely to have higher rez HD Retina screens.

http://www.macrumors.com/2014/10/08/ipad-retina-hd-display/

iOS 8.1 has iPad assets that are 3X, just as someone here suggested could be a possibility. Personally I don't see the point, esp. with an A8(X), unless (as mentioned before) it is for a 12-13" MaxiPad.

In that context, my preference would be a 9.7" iPad with 2X assets, since that would be my preferred form factor and 2X would have superior performance over 3X and potentially increased longevity, at least if it were matched to 2 GB RAM.

However, I do think this makes the possibility of a 12-13" iPad more likely. It also makes me wonder about the possibility that this mythical machine would be marketed as a possible hybrid, with full sized keyboard option including a clickless trackpad. If well implemented I could see myself considing one of those options too.

 

[Eug]

And 2 GB RAM too:

New Photo Claims to Show 2GB Elpida RAM Chips for iPad Air 2

Third-party Apple service provider GeekBar has shared a picture (via Weibo, Google Translate) of what is said to be a 2 GB Elpida RAM module for the iPad Air 2. The units shown appear to be similar to the 1 GB of Elpida DDR3 SDRAM found in the first-generation iPad Air, and the photo follows a report from last month which stated that the next-generation iPad Air would receive a memory upgrade to 2 GB of RAM.

---

Geekbar does not have an established track record with Apple rumors, however the company's Weibo account did reveal the barometric pressure sensor that was eventually included in the iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus.

 

[Eug]

The Wall Street Journal seems to confirm the existence of the larger iPad, but also states that it has been delayed, to help with production of the iPhones.

http://m.wsj.com/articles/larger-apple-ipad-to-be-delayed-1412846867?mobile=y

 

[mmntech]

And 2 GB RAM too:

New Photo Claims to Show 2GB Elpida RAM Chips for iPad Air 2

Third-party Apple service provider GeekBar has shared a picture (via Weibo, Google Translate) of what is said to be a 2 GB Elpida RAM module for the iPad Air 2. The units shown appear to be similar to the 1 GB of Elpida DDR3 SDRAM found in the first-generation iPad Air, and the photo follows a report from last month which stated that the next-generation iPad Air would receive a memory upgrade to 2 GB of RAM.

---

Geekbar does not have an established track record with Apple rumors, however the company's Weibo account did reveal the barometric pressure sensor that was eventually included in the iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus.

Let's hope so. I'm a fan of cramming as much memory into these things as possible. It's an inexpensive upgrade that makes a BIG difference. While iOS tends to manage memory far better than Android does, there's only so much software voodoo you can do. The only reason Apple has stuck to 1GB is purely to keep margins high on these devices.

The Wall Street Journal seems to confirm the existence of the larger iPad, but also states that it has been delayed, to help with production of the iPhones.

http://m.wsj.com/articles/larger-apple-ipad-to-be-delayed-1412846867?mobile=y

"Delayed". Watch how investors react to that at the bell today. Five will get you ten it's an artificial delay to push up demand for the rumored gold iPad. Same thing happened to the iPhone 6.

I think I'll stick with my iPad 3 until iOS 7 stops being supported by developers. It's still fast enough for what I use it for. Don't need to be spending $800/yr to watch YouTube videos and troll the internet in bed.

 

[amyklai]

The only reason Apple has stuck to 1GB is purely to keep margins high on these devices.

It's not so much about margins, it's their version of planned obsolescence.

 

[TheStu]

It's not so much about margins, it's their version of planned obsolescence.

I recently saw something that said that Apple was using 16.5% of the world's DRAM supply. If that's the case, then minimal cost aside, there may be semi-legitimate supply concerns if they were to put 2GB RAM and/or 32GB base storage in every iPhone 6(+) and iPad.

 

[Eug]

That same WSJ article talks about the 12" Retina MacBook going into production in December 2014.

I recently saw something that said that Apple was using 16.5% of the world's DRAM supply. If that's the case, then minimal cost aside, there may be semi-legitimate supply concerns if they were to put 2GB RAM and/or 32GB base storage in every iPhone 6(+) and iPad.

Wow, that's impressive. That article also says it could go up to 25% in 2015.

If true, then agreed, supply is a legitimate concern. However, legitimate or not, 1 GB just isn't enough for a 2014 iPad. They'll just have to ramp up production. I'm willing to wait if necessary. Or maybe that higher 25% already compensates for increased RAM requirements on a per unit basis.

 

[amyklai]

I recently saw something that said that Apple was using 16.5% of the world's DRAM supply. If that's the case, then minimal cost aside, there may be semi-legitimate supply concerns if they were to put 2GB RAM and/or 32GB base storage in every iPhone 6(+) and iPad.

It's only market share of *mobile* DRAM

Apple’s consumption of mobile DRAM will grow from the current 16.5 percent of the industry’s total production volume to 25 percent in 2015

And why should that be surprising? If sell a huge amount of devicces, you need a huge amount of components to build them

Among tablets, the iPad still has over 30% market share:
http://www.cnet.com/news/ipad-sheds-more-market-share-but-still-dominates/

Among smartphones, the iPhone has about 12% market share:
http://www.idc.com/prodserv/smartphone-os-market-share.jsp

So those 15% of mobile RAM absolutely aren't out of line, I'd even say they are lower than you'd expect considering that Apple doesn't really sell any low end devices like all those $100 Android smart phones.

Also, it's a bit ridiculous to say that Apple couldn't make sure they can get 2 GB of RAM for every iPhone - just like they can order the required amount of screens, cases, processors etc, they can order the required amount of DRAM, and if the necessary capacity doesn't exist yet, it will be built.

 

[LightPattern]

This made me laugh... if it's the upgrade to 2GB of RAM they are referring to, I wholeheartedly agree!


Thanks for the Apple news roundups Eug.

 

[TheStu]

It's only market share of *mobile* DRAM

Since we're talking about RAM in mobile devices, that's the share that matters, wouldn't you say?

And why should that be surprising? If sell a huge amount of devicces, you need a huge amount of components to build them

Among tablets, the iPad still has over 30% market share:
http://www.cnet.com/news/ipad-sheds-more-market-share-but-still-dominates/

Among smartphones, the iPhone has about 12% market share:
http://www.idc.com/prodserv/smartphone-os-market-share.jsp

So those 15% of mobile RAM absolutely aren't out of line, I'd even say they are lower than you'd expect considering that Apple doesn't really sell any low end devices like all those $100 Android smart phones.

Also, it's a bit ridiculous to say that Apple couldn't make sure they can get 2 GB of RAM for every iPhone - just like they can order the required amount of screens, cases, processors etc, they can order the required amount of DRAM, and if the necessary capacity doesn't exist yet, it will be built.

The article said that production has been expanded, but the number of devices that are being talked about means that they can't just snap their fingers today and have a million chips on Monday. They have just about ALL the money at this point, but there are still some physical limits.

 

[amyklai]

The article said that production has been expanded, but the number of devices that are being talked about means that they can't just snap their fingers today and have a million chips on Monday. They have just about ALL the money at this point, but there are still some physical limits.

But they don't " snap their fingers today and have a million chips on Monday" with their other components either, those also have to be ordered, factories have to be built etc. So if you already have to preorder the necessary amount of CPUs, screens etc, you can just as well preorder the necessary amount of RAM. There's no fundamental difference between the RAM and the other components.

 

[smackababy]

Am I the only person who wants a 12" 2 in 1 with retina and full OSX? Something to combat the Surface Pro, maybe?

 

[Eug]

I want an iOS 10" (or possibly 12") iPad with better keyboard support.

 

[ControlD]

Am I the only person who wants a 12" 2 in 1 with retina and full OSX? Something to combat the Surface Pro, maybe?

I'm sort of thinking the 12" iPad is going to run OSX anyhow.

 

[Eug]

Parts leak!

http://www.apple.club.tw/ipad-air-2-大量零件曝光/

A8X and 2 GB RAM?

The chip appears to say A8X. You can't make out the RAM markings but the article suggests it is 2 GB.

 

[Steelbom]

Some new iPads likely to have higher rez HD Retina screens.

http://www.macrumors.com/2014/10/08/ipad-retina-hd-display/

iOS 8.1 has iPad assets that are 3X, just as someone here suggested could be a possibility. Personally I don't see the point, esp. with an A8(X), unless (as mentioned before) it is for a 12-13" MaxiPad.

In that context, my preference would be a 9.7" iPad with 2X assets, since that would be my preferred form factor and 2X would have superior performance over 3X and potentially increased longevity, at least if it were matched to 2 GB RAM.

However, I do think this makes the possibility of a 12-13" iPad more likely. It also makes me wonder about the possibility that this mythical machine would be marketed as a possible hybrid, with full sized keyboard option including a clickless trackpad. If well implemented I could see myself considing one of those options too.

Heh, I'm surprised... I thought they would definitely go to 2304p but, I didn't believe it would be this generation as I assumed 395 PPI on a 9.7 inch panel would be too much, and more so that the memory bandwidth required would be too high.

The six-core GX6650 should give the necessary performance, more or less, for that resolution. Though, a clock speed over the GX6450 in the A8 increase might be needed.

 

[Eug]

After going through some basic calculations, I'm not sure if a 12.9" iPad makes quite as much sense as other sizes. I'll go out on a limb and instead predict a 12.1" MaxiPad with a 2560x1920 resolution.

That would allow an extra row of icons vertically and horizontally, yet maintains nice "round" numbers for the resolution, at the exact same pixel density of 264 ppi as the current iPad Air. This represents an increase of 1.25X the horizontal and vertical resolutions, for a total pixel count of approximately 4.9 Megapixels.

So:

12.125" MaxiPad
2560x1920 IPS screen
Apple A8X, with slightly increased clock speed, but with vastly improved GPU - hexacore PowerVR GS6650
2 GB RAM
16 GB base storage, with 64, 128, and 256 GB options
No rotation lock switch
Touch ID
Grey, white/silver, and gold
802.11ac
USB 2 Lightning connector (not USB 3)
Improved battery life vs. the 9.7" and 7.9" models
Apple-branded full-sized keyboard option with no-click trackpad*

Interestingly, this 12.1" size is exactly the same size as my original 1024x768 G3 iBook and my current G4 iBook, but at exactly 3X/9X the pixel density.

* The keyboard is just wishful thinking. I'm not actually predicting this.

 

[mmntech]

I seem to recall seeing a rumour that the MaxiPad would be a hybrid device running OS X. Which to me makes sense, because it would be competing with the Surface Pro in size and price point.

Apple still lacks a touch screen enabled laptop. Which is something Microsoft has really been stressing in their ads for the Surface Pro 3. I actually really do like concept of the Pro. Apple's already got the tech in the form of the MBA. I'd buy something like that.

Though I consider something like that to be fairly unlikely. I don't think Apple wants to start fragmenting the iDevice line by using different hardware architecture. Secondly, I don't think they want to marginalize the MBA either. Be interesting to see what they come up with. What I don't want is a slightly faster, slightly bigger, more expensive iPad Air. 10'' is the perfect screen size for those devices. Any bigger and I want something that works as a full computer.

 

[Steelbom]

After going through some basic calculations, I'm not sure if a 12.9" iPad makes quite as much sense as other sizes. I'll go out on a limb and instead predict a 12.1" MaxiPad with a 2560x1920 resolution.

That would allow an extra row of icons vertically and horizontally, yet maintains nice "round" numbers for the resolution, at the exact same pixel density of 264 ppi as the current iPad Air. This represents an increase of 1.25X the horizontal and vertical resolutions, for a total pixel count of approximately 4.9 Megapixels.

You remind me of something that I didn't think about earlier -- that 3072x2304 resolution could only be internal, and they may ship a 9.7 inch iPad with a lower resolution panel.

Regarding the 12 inch iPad, I think Apple will use a new resolution for this entirely. As they've already shown, they understand that a bigger device needs to display more content, not bigger content.

 

[Eug]

You remind me of something that I didn't think about earlier -- that 3072x2304 resolution could only be internal, and they may ship a 9.7 inch iPad with a lower resolution panel.

Regarding the 12 inch iPad, I think Apple will use a new resolution for this entirely. As they've already shown, they understand that a bigger device needs to display more content, not bigger content.

Yeah, hence the 2560x1920 prediction for the 12.1" MaxiPad.

As for the 9.7", I don't think it really makes much sense to take a Retina 9.7" iPad and then update it to make it render internally at 3X 3072x2304, only to downsample it again, when the original 2048x1536 is already decent Retina at 264 ppi.

However, for a 12.1" iPad, downsampling from 3X makes sense, since increasing the final resolution to 2560x1920 brings it to the exact same 264 ppi as the 9.7" iPad. That also simplifies management of their supply sourcing since it's the same panel tech as the 9.7" iPad.

I seem to recall seeing a rumour that the MaxiPad would be a hybrid device running OS X. Which to me makes sense, because it would be competing with the Surface Pro in size and price point.

Apple still lacks a touch screen enabled laptop. Which is something Microsoft has really been stressing in their ads for the Surface Pro 3. I actually really do like concept of the Pro. Apple's already got the tech in the form of the MBA. I'd buy something like that.

Though I consider something like that to be fairly unlikely. I don't think Apple wants to start fragmenting the iDevice line by using different hardware architecture. Secondly, I don't think they want to marginalize the MBA either. Be interesting to see what they come up with. What I don't want is a slightly faster, slightly bigger, more expensive iPad Air. 10'' is the perfect screen size for those devices. Any bigger and I want something that works as a full computer.

10" only makes sense in certain circumstances... like the MS Surface 2 line. That unit is a 1080p 1.78:1 unit, which means it's quite wide for its 10.6" screen size. The unit width is 275 mm, which is 10.8" wide.

Why does that 10.8" width matter? Because that's close to the smallest size a machine can be and still have a full-sized keyboard.

You'll note that the 4:3 12" iBook, the 4:3 12" PowerBook, and the 1.6:1 11.6" MacBook Air, all have full-sized keyboards.

For the Microsoft Surface Pro 3, they decided to change from a 1.78:1 unit to a 1.5:1 12" size. That unit is 11.5" wide, and also has a full-sized keyboard. Just as importantly, it increases the vertical height to give more room in laptop landscape mode, and it also provides more room for a decent sized trackpad.

In contrast, the 4:3 9.7" iPad is only 9.4" wide, which is insufficient width for a full-sized keyboard. That's why all the 3rd party keyboards have reduced-size keys, and no decent trackpads.

 

[Eug]

Clearer pic of A8X + 2 GB RAM