Left and Right in the debate on nuclear weapons

[Aegeon]

Originally posted by: Harvey
As I said, the problem is, Bush has already squandered our military capabilities in Iraq. Both of them know it, and that, alone, could embolden either of them to the point where they think we couldn't do anything about it... and they may be right.

The second part of your "solution" isn't necessarily viable, either. Logistically, air power, alone, may not be enough to do the job of stopping aggression or threats by either Iran or North Korea. Hell! North Korea could pour a huge army across the 38th parallel before we could launch any strikes, and any resulting nuclear fallout would be only minutes from Seoul, and Iran's neighborhood isn't any better as far as proximity goes.

Uh, this is only somewhat accurate, and only really with Iran, as far as US stopping them from invading foreign countries. The only part that might be possibly true about either is them miscalculating under the wrong circumstances and trying something. Pakistan for instance could easily cream Iran if Iran made the mistake of going against them, and the same would be the case for Turkey. We've already got our military in Iraq, and both the US and other countries have sufficient military forces in Afghanistan to deal with an invasion there, especially when backed by Afghan forces. Not only does Turmenistan have nasty government with a leader who could beat Iran's leadership in a crazyness contest, but they have a rather capable army including 700 T-72 tanks. (While these may not be the best tanks, Iran lacks anything better themselves.) The only exceptions might be Armenia and Azerbaijan. However Russia would definately be extremely unhappy with such a move into their sphere of influence and would almost certainly be willing to assist the US in kicking Iran out of either of those countries if the US has too much of its forces tied up.

You also don't seem to realize how powerful South Korea's military is. The reality is they don't really need the US to protect them anymore. North Korea's most advanced tank is the extremely outdated T-62, and North Korea's most common tank is the T-55. By contrast, South Korea has 80 T-80U tanks which they received from Russia in return for forgiving Russia some debts it owed them. (For your information the model number for Soviet tanks represents which year the tank first appeared, so you can get an idea how old the design is, the "U" designation for the T-80 represents a substancially upgraded varient of it.) However South Korea's most impressive element of its tank force is over 1,000 Type 88 tanks, which are a domestic design which massively outclass anything that North Korea has. Including its reserves, South Korea has around 1.6 million men as part of its army. South Korea has an impressive Navy including 9 German designed 209 diesel submarines during the 1990s, a bunch of modern surface combatants, and is currently building 3 powerful large destroyers which include Aegis technology. The current trend is that South Korea's military is getting more modern and powerful all the time, while North Korea is unable to improve its increasingly obsolete conventional military with its pathetic economy.

While I'm not happy with Bush's foreign policy decisions, you should be realistic on what the international strategic possibilities actually are.

 

[Harvey]

Originally posted by: Aegeon
Uh, this is only somewhat accurate, and only really with Iran, as far as US stopping them from invading foreign countries.

When North Korea is less than an hour away from Seoul, they don't need manpower. Anything that goes boom and glows could make the entire area uninhabitable for a few millennia.

Do you really think we can rely on rational behavior from Kim Jong-il?

 

[Horus]

Nukes should be banned. Completely. All the weapons should be destroyed, the fissionable metals used in reactors. There is simply no need for them in a modern age.

And they're not weapons? You have gotta be kidding me. Most of you live in the ONLY nation ever to use nukes in a battlefield situation. How were they a deterrent against the Japanese? Oh, I forgot...Truman used them because he thought sending in Chuck Norris would be inhumane.

 

[Aegeon]

Originally posted by: Harvey
When North Korea is less than an hour away from Seoul, they don't need manpower. Anything that goes boom and glows could make the entire area uninhabitable for a few millennia.

Do you really think we can rely on rational behavior from Kim Jong-il?

I think you're insanely overestimating the effects of nukes here, especially the fairly primative ones that Kim Jong-Il may have. Any realistic estimate of the number of nukes that Kim Jon-Il has means he could kill a bunch of people but not wipe everyone in the area. The South Korean Army would still be able to deal with the North Korean army basically on its own with minimal air support from the US.

The radioactive fallout has a rather short halflife. It might make the area unsafe for a couple weeks or maybe a month, but it wouldn't be any longer than that until the radioactivity level was no longer significant enough to be dangerous. Theoretically the mass use of "dirty bomb" ammunition might contiminate the area for a longer period, but the reality is that Kim Jong-Ill has no incentive to do this. If he's trying to conquer South Korea, he wants the land to remain usable so he can take advantage of it after he conquers it.

 

[rahvin]

Originally posted by: Aegeon
The radioactive fallout has a rather short halflife. It might make the area unsafe for a couple weeks or maybe a month, but it wouldn't be any longer than that until the radioactivity level was no longer significant enough to be dangerous.

Kim isn't going to be using the more modern clean bombs. His technology is going to be 1940's low tech, high fallout, heavy radiation bombs. Although I'm sure the SK millitary could wipe the floor with him, the civillian losses would be astronomic. Something I don't even like thinking about.

I honestly don't believe he's insane enough to commit suicide. His goal is to make sure that he stays in power and alive outside that he's not a real threat other than trying to blackmail the west. Kim's actually much more likely to nuke Japan than SK, at least IMO.