Leaked Intel RoadMap Desktop Platform

[podspi]

I don't believe socket 1155 will get more than 4 cores even with IvyBridge.

So perhaps socket 2011 will get you a nice SB 32nm 6 core at $300 (ala Core i7 920) and you could later upgrade to a 6-8 core 22nm IvyBridge.

I would be floored if Intel was selling 6-cores for $300. I think they're going to land around $400 - $600, depending on where Bulldozer lands.

 

[greenhawk]

Welcome to Anandtech forums. Hope you have fun... and maybe learn something along the way.

PB

thanks

 

[Idontcare]

I don't believe socket 1155 will get more than 4 cores even with IvyBridge.

Even for IB? A 4-core IB is going to be a rather small CPU.

Intel could double the EU's in their IGP and boost the core-count from 4 to 6 on Ivy Bridge and still end up with a smaller/cheaper CPU to sell than a 6 EU + 4-core SB.

 

[PreferLinux]

I have read on Wikipedia in the past that IB would have 4 cores at entry level, but it isn't there any more.

 

[IntelUser2000]

I don't believe socket 1155 will get more than 4 cores even with IvyBridge.

I agree with this too, but perhaps we'll see 6 cores towards end of next year?

 

[Ares1214]

I would be floored if Intel was selling 6-cores for $300. I think they're going to land around $400 - $600, depending on where Bulldozer lands.

Well i mean, SB quads have a die size of 216mm, where as nehalem is 263mm. So even with adding an entire IGP, SB is still about 20% smaller than Nehalem. Now, of course we dont know how much it costs intel to make both these CPU's, but my guess is SB is a decent amount cheaper. Knowing this, and knowing that IB will be 22nm, its pretty easy to dsee 6 cores around $300. If they just remade SB at 22nm, it would be around 150mm. Make that a 6 core and you are looking around 225mm, or almost exactly the same as SB. Granted, thats assuming they change nothing, so between 250mm and 300mm is a pretty safe guess for a 6 core IB with some pretty hefty upgrades over SB. Thats right where Nehalem was, and therefore we should be seeing similar to Nehalem pricing by then, or around $300.

 

[podspi]

Well i mean, SB quads have a die size of 216mm, where as nehalem is 263mm. So even with adding an entire IGP, SB is still about 20% smaller than Nehalem. Now, of course we dont know how much it costs intel to make both these CPU's, but my guess is SB is a decent amount cheaper. Knowing this, and knowing that IB will be 22nm, its pretty easy to dsee 6 cores around $300. If they just remade SB at 22nm, it would be around 150mm. Make that a 6 core and you are looking around 225mm, or almost exactly the same as SB. Granted, thats assuming they change nothing, so between 250mm and 300mm is a pretty safe guess for a 6 core IB with some pretty hefty upgrades over SB. Thats right where Nehalem was, and therefore we should be seeing similar to Nehalem pricing by then, or around $300.

It's not what they can price them at, it's what AMD will force them to price them at


It's hard to predict future pricing because Bulldozer is an unknown factor at this point. If (god forbid) 8-core Bulldozer (at what, ~280mm?) is competitive with the 2600K, then there is no way we're seeing $300 hex-cores from Intel any time soon. My personal prediction is that 8-core 8-thread Bulldozer will trade blows with a 6-core 12-thread Sandy Bridge. Neither company is going to want to sell that level of performance for under $400 dollars (and probably higher).


Of course, Intel could decide they want to kill AMD (and I think they could do it without running foul of anti-dumping laws), but given AMD's new mainstream success (where the real volume is) and willingness to accept low margins (especially now that they are a design firm!) I don't know if this would be a wise strategy to follow.

 

[AtenRa]

Even for IB? A 4-core IB is going to be a rather small CPU.

Intel could double the EU's in their IGP and boost the core-count from 4 to 6 on Ivy Bridge and still end up with a smaller/cheaper CPU to sell than a 6 EU + 4-core SB.

Im not saying is not engineering/process possible,

I believe Intel wants to double the IGP performance every year and raise a 20% for the CPU.

In order to do that and if they will stick to the same design principles of the SB, then they will need a bigger and faster L3 Cache and more silicon inside the IGP (more EUs, etc).

A four (4) core IB will have more than 1.0B transistors and I will guess it will be close to 1.3-1.5B. In order to have a 20% more performance for the CPU they will Beef UP the core and raise the L3 maybe to 2.5 or 3GB per core.

With an upgraded EU design and 16 EUs they will need more memory buffer and bandwidth (Larger faster L3 LLC). All of the above will raise the transistor count and die size in relationship to SB but IB will be at 22nm.

Now the 22nm will give us roughly half the die size (same transistor count) or double the transistor at the same die size at 32 nm. A four (4) core SB like the Core i7 2600/K is at 216mm2 but if IB will have 30-50% more silicon then it could be close to 260-280mm2 at 32nm. At 22nm it could be close to 130-150mm2 and a dual core (2) IB will be close to 80mm2.

Since 22nm process will be young and with lower yields than 32nm, Intel will start to produce the small 2 and 4 core IB for the 1155 socket and then after 2-3 quarters (H2 2012) they will start to produce the 6 and 8 core IB for socket 2011 when yields will be higher.

They did the same thing with 32nm in Q1 2010 when they introduced the dual (2) core Clarkdale at 32nm. For the entire 2010 we only had a dual (Clarkdale) and hex core (Guilftown) at 32nm with all quad (4) cores at 45nm.

The Clarkdale raised yields and Guilftown raised prestige and 45nm dual/quad cores were producing income in order to depreciate the investment in 45nm fabs.

I could be wrong, we have to wait and see