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01-12-2010 - Update
Looks like we're off to a roaring start - the "developing" nations who were asked to "commit to nationally appropriate mitigation actions" are going to miss the deadline to submit their numbers.
UN abandons climate change deadline
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12-17-2009 - Original Post
First off, load this up in another tab:
Adoption of The Copenhagen Agreement - DRAFT 271109 Decision 1/CP.15
So as I posted earlier, I've read one of the pre-convention drafts of the treaty and was amazed at how obvious the language was about having very little to do with the environment - it seemed to be all about wealth transfer from "developed" to "developing" nations, with nothing in the treaty requiring the "developing" to use these funds to cut emissions.
I'm not exactly sure why these drafts have to be leaked instead of posted publicly for our perusal, but whatever. The UK's Guardian newspaper has a draft from last week up on their website and I've taken another quick scan through it to see what the fuss is about, and if anything has changed.
It still doesn't appear to have much to do with cutting carbon emissions. There's language in there about the environment, but only as a justification for a mandated $X billion dollar support fund for "developing" nations.
I'll touch on a few parts of the draft to explain why I'm thinking this way. There are 32 "points" to this proposed agreement, each numbered.
As you can see, straightaway in the draft we have mention of financial support for developing nations.
"Developed" nations, in other words, have a hard target.
The least developed nations don't have to do anything - indeed, they contribute at their own discretion. Everyone who's not in last place has to commit to "nationally appropriate mitigation actions".
"Developing" nations, in other words, have no hard target.
Developed nations will provide "sustained financial resources and positive incentives" to developing nations to mitigate deforestation.
Commit to spending 2x - 4x on climate field related R & D.
Would you believe that the longest section of the draft is titled "Financial resources and investments to support actions on mitigation, adaptation, capacity-building and technology cooperation"? In any case, it seems that the amount (already spelled out in the billions) developed countries will pay out has not yet been decided.
Each developed country that signs up will finance the developing world with $10 billion/year to start, and scale up from there (as emissions will certainly not be going down in the short term).
Again, there are 32 points in this draft and I've touched on perhaps 5. I am not seeing the how/why the developing world is going to be compelled to reduce emissions using the cash doled out by the first world. I believe we have reason to be skeptical about the aims of this proposed treaty.
Looks like we're off to a roaring start - the "developing" nations who were asked to "commit to nationally appropriate mitigation actions" are going to miss the deadline to submit their numbers.
UN abandons climate change deadline
The timetable to reach a global deal to tackle climate change lay in tatters on Wednesday after the United Nations waived the first deadline of the process laid out at last month’s fractious Copenhagen summit.
Nations agreed then to declare their emissions reduction targets by the end of this month. Developed countries would state their intended cuts by 2020: developing countries would outline how they would curb emissions growth.
But Yvo de Boer, the UN’s senior climate change official, admitted the deadline had in effect been shelved.
“By [the end of] January, countries will have the opportunity to . . . indicate if they want to be associated with the accord,” he said. “[Governments could] indicate by the deadline, or they can also indicate later.”
“You could describe it as a soft deadline,” Mr de Boer said. “There is nothing deadly about it. If [countries] fail to meet it, they can still associate with the Copenhagen accord after.”
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12-17-2009 - Original Post
First off, load this up in another tab:
Adoption of The Copenhagen Agreement - DRAFT 271109 Decision 1/CP.15
So as I posted earlier, I've read one of the pre-convention drafts of the treaty and was amazed at how obvious the language was about having very little to do with the environment - it seemed to be all about wealth transfer from "developed" to "developing" nations, with nothing in the treaty requiring the "developing" to use these funds to cut emissions.
I'm not exactly sure why these drafts have to be leaked instead of posted publicly for our perusal, but whatever. The UK's Guardian newspaper has a draft from last week up on their website and I've taken another quick scan through it to see what the fuss is about, and if anything has changed.
It still doesn't appear to have much to do with cutting carbon emissions. There's language in there about the environment, but only as a justification for a mandated $X billion dollar support fund for "developing" nations.
I'll touch on a few parts of the draft to explain why I'm thinking this way. There are 32 "points" to this proposed agreement, each numbered.
2. In this regard, the Parties:
- Commit to take action to mitigate climate change based on their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities,
- Commit to take action on adaptation including international support assisting the poorest and most vulnerable countries,
- Commit to strengthen the international architecture for the provision of substantially increased finance for climate efforts in developing countries,
- Commit to establish a technology mechanism to promote the development, transfer and deployment of environmentally sustainable technologies in support of mitigation and adaptation efforts.
As you can see, straightaway in the draft we have mention of financial support for developing nations.
7. The developed country Parties commit to individual national economy wide targets for 2020. The targets in Attachment A would expect to yield aggregate emissions reductions by X1 percent by 2020 versus 1990 (X2 percent vs. 2005). The purchase of international offset credits will play a supplementary role to domestic action.
The developed country Parties support a goal to reduce their emissions of greenhouse gases in aggregate by 80% or more by 2050 versus 1990 (X3 percent versus 2005).
"Developed" nations, in other words, have a hard target.
9. The developing country Parties, except the least developed countries which may contribute at their own discretion, commit to nationally appropriate mitigation actions, including actions supported and enabled by technology, financing and capacity-building. The developing countries’ individual mitigation action could in aggregate yield a [Y percent] deviation in [2020] from business as usual and yielding their collective emissions peak before [20XX] and decline thereafter.
The least developed nations don't have to do anything - indeed, they contribute at their own discretion. Everyone who's not in last place has to commit to "nationally appropriate mitigation actions".
"Developing" nations, in other words, have no hard target.
12. Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation is an important aspect of the necessary response to climate change. Developing countries should contribute to enhanced mitigation actions through reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, maintaining existing and enhancing carbon stocks, and enhancing removals by increasing forest cover.
Parties underline the importance of enhanced and sustained financial resources and positive incentives for developing countries to, through a series of phases, build capacity and undertake actions that result in measurable, reportable and verifiable greenhouse gas emission reductions and removal and changes in forest carbon stocks in relation to reference emission levels.
Developed nations will provide "sustained financial resources and positive incentives" to developing nations to mitigate deforestation.
18. Parties commit to enable the accelerated large-scale development, transfer and deployment of environmentally sound and climate friendly technologies across all stages of the technology cycle, respecting IPR regimes including protecting the legitimate interests of public and private innovators. Developed country parties commit to work towards doubling aggregate public investments in climate related research, development and demonstration by 2015 from current levels and quadrupling the efforts by 2020.
Commit to spending 2x - 4x on climate field related R & D.
20. The Parties share the view that the strengthened financial architecture should be able to handle gradually scaled up international public support.
International public finance support to developing countries [should/shall] reach the order of [X] billion USD in 2020 on the basis of appropriate increases in mitigation and adaptation efforts by developing countries.
Would you believe that the longest section of the draft is titled "Financial resources and investments to support actions on mitigation, adaptation, capacity-building and technology cooperation"? In any case, it seems that the amount (already spelled out in the billions) developed countries will pay out has not yet been decided.
21. The Parties confirm climate financing committed under this agreement as new and additional resources that supplement existing international public financial flows otherwise available for developing countries in support of poverty alleviation and the continued progress towards the Millennium Development Goals.
In this regard:
- Developed country parties commit to deliver upfront public financing for 2010-201[2] corresponding on average to [10] billion USD annually for early action, capacity building, technology and strengthening adaptation and mitigation readiness in developing countries as set forth in Attachment C;
- From [2013] The Parties commit to regularly review appropriateness of contributions and the circle of contributors against indicators of fairness based on GDP and emissions levels and taking into account the level of development as set forth in Attachment C.
Each developed country that signs up will finance the developing world with $10 billion/year to start, and scale up from there (as emissions will certainly not be going down in the short term).
Again, there are 32 points in this draft and I've touched on perhaps 5. I am not seeing the how/why the developing world is going to be compelled to reduce emissions using the cash doled out by the first world. I believe we have reason to be skeptical about the aims of this proposed treaty.
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