Latest Gallup Poll shows Romney Leading 47% to 45%

[OrByte]

He called 50 / 51 states (missed Indiana) in 2008, along with all senate races in 2008.

However, then he was essentially unknown blogger dabbling in presidential statistics (IIRC, he's actual job was statistician at Baseball Prospectus), but he know is well know part of establishment and affiliated with New York Times.

My gut impression (and that is all it is) is he is underestimating Obama's edge right now, perhaps to establish his mainstream credibility.

I liked it better when he wasn't a part of the NY Times media machine.

That being said, I don't think his analysis has changed much since the blogger days.

I appreciate his state by state breakdown...very thorough, extremely transparent.

 

[mshan]

I agree, I liked reading his stuff more previously when he was writing under essentially unknown pseudonym Poblano.

 

[First]

^ Yeah, but his methods haven't changed much and thankfully they're basically all transparent and fully sourced and vetted. He's the Anand Shimpi of political polls; very thorough and detailed, his hand constantly on the bleeding edge pulse of polling. Definitely an impressive statistician.

 

[Infohawk]

Ordinarily I would say yes, but apparently something else is behind our votes now. Look at Bush winning his second term while having both a bad economy AND fighting an unpopular war.

It depends how you define the economy, but I don't think it was that bad in 2004. Remember, that was the time when people were speculating on real estate. That is not the behavior of people worried about their jobs. The consensus is that things got bad in 2008 and that for the average person, things have been worse since then regardless of how the stock market has done.

 

[Infohawk]

What are the polls saying about how Congress will turn out? Any chance the House goes Democratic?

 

[cybrsage]

True, the economy has gotten much worse while Obama has been president. His fault or not really does not matter as, for most people, perception is reality. Combine that perception with his promises to reduce the deficit and reduce unemployment, and you get a large F for failure plastered on Obama's forehead.

He could still pull it off if he can manage to energize his base. He needs something to do that, though, for this time he no longer has the "I am a black man who might be president, go me!". It really is his biggest weakness this time around, the potential lack of supporter turnout.

 

[First]

What are the polls saying about how Congress will turn out? Any chance the House goes Democratic?

Senate is looking like 50-50, with the tiebreaker to the VP, according to the polls and Silver's analysis. But that doesn't take into account the recent Akin bust.

Basically zero chance of House going Dem as things look now. If Ryan and Romney lose the Medicare messaging battle badly (I believe they will lose that messaging battle, how badly is anyone's guess), then the down-ticket affect on House seats could be semi-cascading. But they need something like 25 seats. Just don't see that happening. Probably half a dozen, with an outside chance at 12-15 net gain for the Dems in the House.

 

[chowderhead]

Romney will need to pull an inside straight to win. Looking at the ad dollars spent on both sides (excluding national buys), both sides are spending money only in 8 states. Romney will need to win 7 of 8 of them which are all the 2004 Bush states (NH is the other state).
Romney will need to make his hand by tearing down Obama since Romney's favorables are themselves underwater.

 

[umbrella39]

lolromtard ... polls!

 

[cybrsage]

What does that bit of non-sense actually mean, umbrella?

 

[Infohawk]

Senate is looking like 50-50, with the tiebreaker to the VP, according to the polls and Silver's analysis. But that doesn't take into account the recent Akin bust.

Basically zero chance of House going Dem as things look now. If Ryan and Romney lose the Medicare messaging battle badly (I believe they will lose that messaging battle, how badly is anyone's guess), then the down-ticket affect on House seats could be semi-cascading. But they need something like 25 seats. Just don't see that happening. Probably half a dozen, with an outside chance at 12-15 net gain for the Dems in the House.

Thanks. For some reason I feel like if the electorate is going with Obama even though confidence in the economy is low that somehow that could be explained by a shift left which would affect the House, but apparently not.

 

[Smoblikat]

That might be even more fun than an electoral college tie.

Do you think that the Democrats would call for Obama to stand aside and support the will of the people?

No, theyd say that obama is black and therefore entitled to the position. Otherwise the entire country will be racist.