I liked it better when he wasn't a part of the NY Times media machine.He called 50 / 51 states (missed Indiana) in 2008, along with all senate races in 2008.
However, then he was essentially unknown blogger dabbling in presidential statistics (IIRC, he's actual job was statistician at Baseball Prospectus), but he know is well know part of establishment and affiliated with New York Times.
My gut impression (and that is all it is) is he is underestimating Obama's edge right now, perhaps to establish his mainstream credibility.
That being said, I don't think his analysis has changed much since the blogger days.
I appreciate his state by state breakdown...very thorough, extremely transparent.