Lack of Credibility in U.S. Intelligence Starts to Hurt Us

[Witling]

Sunday Washington Post. The thrust of the article is that our intelligence about Iraqi WMDs was so bad that other countries now doubt what we're saying. It's a short article and not particularly informative. I cite it to make explicit the observation that if you lie, your nose is gonna grow (lying has consequences).

"Already, in the crisis over North Korea's nuclear ambitions, China has rejected U.S. intelligence that North Korea has a secret program to enrich uranium for use in weapons. China is a key player in resolving the North Korean standoff, but its refusal to embrace the U.S. intelligence has disappointed U.S. officials and could complicate negotiations to eliminate North Korea's weapons programs.

Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, said the same problem could occur if the United States presses for action against alleged weapons programs in Iran and Syria. The solution, he said, is to let international organizations such as the International Atomic Energy Agency take the lead in making the case, as has happened thus far in Iran, and also to be willing to share more of the intelligence with other countries."

 

[lozina]

I never really thought about this consequence but it makes perfect sense. It is the boy who cried wolf... when we have some real intelligence of danger which has been meticulously analyzed and confirmed by the traditional protocols of our intelligence services instead of 'stove piped' to Dick Cheney's office, will anyone listen?

 

[Gaard]

Pinnochio

 

[dahunan]

Fvck that .. who needs allies... We're a big bad superpower and we can tell others what to do .. if they don't like it then prepare to be bashed by our semi-retarded citizenry.

 

[Mill]

I'm not that concerned. China has enough assets on the ground in NK to know the truth better than we probably do. Beijing is not going to sit back and let NK threaten them, but they are also not going to sit back and play their hand for the US to see. They are going to play their cards close and be difficult with the US. They garner more points that way with other countries plus it makes the US more likely to capitulate to them on later things.

 

[EagleKeeper]

NK has been stating/confirming the same as what our intelligence agencies are saying.

Other aras of the world may have a problem. The USSR system was over optimistic as was Iraq.

A major problem is that lack of valid HUMINT, budget cutting and congressional oversight w/ respect to morals.