Kyrsten Sinema finally comes out of the closet just in time to weaken the historical Democratic majority in the Senate

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senseamp

Lifer
Feb 5, 2006
35,787
6,197
126
She's a corporate shill. Her biggest achievement is saving the carried interest loophole. This is why it's important to vet candidates and vote for "career politicians" and not random people off the street in the primaries.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
48,089
37,283
136
This won't do much practical damage to the Democrats, since Sinema wasn't a reliable vote.

She votes with Biden 93% of the time. Kelly does 95% of the time. She's fairly reliable, if she was not she'd lose her committee posts.

It's really just her being more honest about her politics.

Her only politics are herself.

And while she probably has visions of becoming a more conservative equivalent to Bernie Sanders, it's more likely that the replacement Democratic candidate will win the next time around. This may ultimately benefit the Dems simply by increasing the chances that a majority is actually a majority.

Sanders is likable and and very pragmatic legislator though that's not her model. McCain is her model but you actually have to be John McCain to make that work and it hasn't, thus the switch to Indie. She's just pressing buttons now.
 

Pens1566

Lifer
Oct 11, 2005
12,284
9,113
136
She votes with Biden 93% of the time. Kelly does 95% of the time. She's fairly reliable, if she was not she'd lose her committee posts.



Her only politics are herself.



Sanders is likable and and very pragmatic legislator though that's not her model. McCain is her model but you actually have to be John McCain to make that work and it hasn't, thus the switch to Indie. She's just pressing buttons now.

I'd have to see what the 7% is, but I'm willing to bet it contains some of the more important votes. Additionally, things that never made it to the floor because they knew she'd be a "NO".


End result will likely be a third place finish in the '24 general, with her siphoning off votes from both R and D side. Remains to be seen which loses more, but I'd have to guess D. It all depends on the R candidate though. If they run someone from the Lake/Masters/Arpaio/Ethan Schmidt wing, then I think Gallego (yes, he's running) will win and retract my statement. But if sanity somehow prevails and someone like Ducey wins, then her being in the race will hurt.
 
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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
48,089
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I'd have to see what the 7% is, but I'm willing to bet it contains some of the more important votes. Additionally, things that never made it to the floor because they knew she'd be a "NO".


End result will likely be a third place finish in the '24 general, with her siphoning off votes from both R and D side. Remains to be seen which loses more, but I'd have to guess D. It all depends on the R candidate though. If they run someone from the Lake/Masters/Arpaio/Ethan Schmidt wing, then I think Gallego (yes, he's running) will win and retract my statement. But if sanity somehow prevails and someone like Ducey wins, then her being in the race will hurt.

Any moderate R candidate has to make it through the primary which if R primary voters keep demanding insane people is a bit of a challenge.
 

hal2kilo

Lifer
Feb 24, 2009
24,222
10,877
136
Yeah ... She most likely knows she’s going to be primaried in 2024 and she’s trying to pull an Arlen Specter. I suspect it’ll go about as well for her as it did for him.

I can’t fathom who her base might be. Hard for me to imagine who Sinema appeals to. She voted twice to impeach Trump. Her theatrical thumbs down of the minimum wage raise. She generally tries to stymie Democrats on almost every policy. Seems to me she is trying for the mythical (and mostly fantastical) “both sides are too extreme” voter, so maybe 10%?
I've got to believe that she lost all the people who voted for her as a Democrat. I say if there's a recall vehicle in Arizona law, do it now!
 

IronWing

No Lifer
Jul 20, 2001
70,211
28,916
136
She has only herself to blame!

She tripped herself with her minimum wage vote and make it iconic with her visions of grandeur.

View attachment 72606

Turns out it was delusions of grandeur! I'd say half her problems emanate from that!
The outfit, it's like she showed up for an audition not knowing if it was for Cheers, Sex in the City, or a David Bowie video.
 

Pens1566

Lifer
Oct 11, 2005
12,284
9,113
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Any moderate R candidate has to make it through the primary which if R primary voters keep demanding insane people is a bit of a challenge.

Yeah, it's limited. That's why I said Ducey. He would probably win. And I do (surprisingly) hear some talk that the R campaign folks are realizing terrible candidates are what cost them many seats this cycle. If that takes hold, then it makes it more likely. See the lack of Lake supporters showing up at post election rallies for "voter fraud" bullshit. Dozens of attendees ...
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
48,089
37,283
136
Yeah, it's limited. That's why I said Ducey. He would probably win. And I do (surprisingly) hear some talk that the R campaign folks are realizing terrible candidates are what cost them many seats this cycle. If that takes hold, then it makes it more likely. See the lack of Lake supporters showing up at post election rallies for "voter fraud" bullshit. Dozens of attendees ...

Lake's narrow loss is not likely to moderate their base's electoral choices though. Realizing and actually acting to neutralize candidates their voters want (even if they are doomed in the general) are definitely two different things.

The state Dems for their part don't appear inclined to give Sinema a pass:

 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
34,007
8,040
136
This should not be allowed while someone is serving.

Allow?
You do not allow what, exactly?

A person to freely associate?
A person to freely decide on and cast their vote?

And how exactly do you intend to attack the first amendment?
 
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Pens1566

Lifer
Oct 11, 2005
12,284
9,113
136
Lake's narrow loss is not likely to moderate their base's electoral choices though. Realizing and actually acting to neutralize candidates their voters want (even if they are doomed in the general) are definitely two different things.

The state Dems for their part don't appear inclined to give Sinema a pass:


For the Rs I think it's more about where their campaign funds/support go to. If the party orgs shy away from the nutjobs in that regard, I'm not sure the real ground level support is there. Even from the GQP base. They like to go to rallies, sink boats, and put flags on trucks but they're not a campaign organization.

Yeah, she's dead to the Ds though. No question.
 
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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
48,089
37,283
136
For the Rs I think it's more about where their campaign funds/support go to. If the party orgs shy away from the nutjobs in that regard, I'm not sure the real ground level support is there. Even from the GQP base. They like to go to rallies, sink boats, and put flags on trucks but they're not a campaign organization.

Yeah, she's dead to the Ds though. No question.

Any rich conservative crank can push through their candidate though like what happened with Masters. The only reliable way to avoid this I think is to not have a primary at all which is what Virginia Rs did for the governorship.
 

Pens1566

Lifer
Oct 11, 2005
12,284
9,113
136
Any rich conservative crank can push through their candidate though like what happened with Masters. The only reliable way to avoid this I think is to not have a primary at all which is what Virginia Rs did for the governorship.

True. But I wonder how many of them will be willing to flush away more money like that. Their record in that context isn't exactly great. So far, only Thiel with Vance in OH was successful. Then again, if successful, it is a pretty cheap price to buy a highly placed elected official.

Didn't know about the VA twist. Would be an interesting tactic if the party really learned it's lesson and did this elsewhere.
 

sportage

Lifer
Feb 1, 2008
11,492
3,161
136
We gotta understand one thing here, and maybe it's already been mentioned?
The fact that she FOOLED her voters. She actually fooled her supporters during her campaign claiming that she was a democrat.

I did not follow her campaign but I'm sure that she walked like a democrat, talked like a democrat, and promised to act as a democrat, but yet..... she did in fact lie and did in fact fool and did in fact deceive her supporters.

DEMOCRATS.... WISE UP!!!
We CAN NOT allow people like this to fool us. We MUST be smarter.
If this were the republican party and she did this to them, they'd drum her F-ing ass out of the republican party.
Then, Donald Trump would certainly destroy her future political career.
Wise up democrats... Wise up.
 

woolfe9998

Lifer
Apr 8, 2013
16,189
14,114
136

Yeah, that is a good analogy. I remember at first when Lieberman bucked Obama and the party, I thought it might just be actual policy disagreement as Lieberman had always been a hawk. Then he tried to gum up the works on a very moderate health care bill, when he had always been left on domestic policy, and I knew it was all about ego. Sinema is just saying, "look at me. Look at me. I'm bucking my own party." Like she's "above" partisanship. She will be largely forgotten by history.
 

Gardener

Senior member
Nov 22, 1999
765
547
136
She says she will still caucus with the Democrats so if that’s the case this doesn’t seem to change anything. I think this is more her trying to avoid the 2024 primary that she knows she will lose.

The CNN article states,

"While Sanders and King formally caucus with Democrats, Sinema declined to explicitly say that she would do the same. She did note, however, that she expects to keep her committee assignments"


Schumer's tactical flaw is rewarding her behavior. If you think Sinema was unreliable before, try Sinema 3.0.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
85,634
50,860
136
The CNN article states,

"While Sanders and King formally caucus with Democrats, Sinema declined to explicitly say that she would do the same. She did note, however, that she expects to keep her committee assignments"
In a 45-minute interview, the first-term senator told POLITICO that she will not caucus with Republicans and suggested that she intends to vote the same way she has for four years in the Senate. “Nothing will change about my values or my behavior,” she said.

Caucusing with the Democrats is the only thing that makes logical sense here. If she caucuses with the Republicans then she's in the minority with nothing to show for it. If she caucuses with no one she is booted off all committees.

Schumer's tactical flaw is rewarding her behavior. If you think Sinema was unreliable before, try Sinema 3.0.
How did he reward her behavior and what should he have done differently? I really don't get this stuff. Schumer had zero leverage. Zero.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
48,089
37,283
136
Schumer is busy prepping the nomination conveyor belt he's going to run next year instead of worrying about her in 24. This doesn't impact his decisions.
 
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