Originally posted by: CADsortaGUY
Originally posted by: 0marTheZealot
Originally posted by: CADsortaGUY
Originally posted by: Engineer
Originally posted by: Aimster
Originally posted by: Sysbuilder05
Originally posted by: ReiAyanami
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/041209/opec_meeting_10.html
"Crude is now valued at nearly double the bottom end of the present band of $22 to $28, and several ministers said they wanted that span hiked significantly.
The Emirates' Al-Hamili said the new range should be between $33 to $38 because of the weak dollar and the realities of more expensive crude."
so like oil above $40 and they're "target" is $22-$28, so they cut oil production to increase oil prices.
so if the new target becomes $33-$38, then will we be seeing $66-$76?
historically oil is supposed to be $25/barrel in winter
See what spending billions liberating/protecting and getting Americans killed for Kuwait gets you in the end? We spent millions more putting out their Oil well fires so they can treat us to higher prices.
it's their oil they can do whatever they want with it. They don't even have to sell it.
I say it's our food and we should not sell it to them either! Let them eat their oil.
And they'll say - ok - you drive your food around
😉
Ofcourse it's entirely possible with things like Bio-diesel.
😀
CsG
No CsG, it's not unfortunately.
<missed point jibberish deleted
What percentage of our oil use comes from OPEC? I've seen figures that put OPEC at 40% of our IMPORTS - which would become a smaller percentage once you factor in our own oil production. Heck only about 20% of our IMPORTS come from the Middle East.
😉 So yes, BioDiesel sure is a viable alternative no matter how much you try to diminish it's potential.
CsG
Gimme quotes and numbers to work with here.
Outside of the Middle East, production is basically declining. Russia peaked in 1987, we peaked in 1970, Norway and Britain peaked in 2001, the North Sea has peaked in 2002, etc etc. WIthin a decade, 50-60% of all oil will come from the Middle East, who also have burgening populations as well.
http://home.entouch.net/dmd/bp2003.htm
^ Here's a good synposis of total production in the world as of 2003.^
There are no alternatives to oil. A variety of alternatives will help, but nothing that sustain our juggernaut economy and lifestyle.
A few tidbits:
"Myth: There are billions of barrels of oil which can be readily recovered from oil shale in the U.S."
"As the United States has the world's largest and richest deposits of oil shale, the optimistic statements which sometimes arise from that fact are among the more commonly heard in regard to the U.S. energy future. An enthusiastic article about oil shale in the prestigious Fortune magazine is titled: "Shale Oil is Braced for Big Role." It concludes, "Shale oil is not the whole answer to the energy problem but it's one of the few pieces that is already within the nation's grasp."(l9) The article was written in 1979. As of 1997 no oil from oil shale is being produced in the U.S.... or anywhere else.
"Reality:
"The supposedly great prospects for the production of oil from oil shale in the United States has been one of the most widely promoted and heard energy myths for many years. Statements even made by government agencies can be quite misleading. These arise perhaps because it is good government policy to take as optimistic view as possible toward any national problem. The statements also are due to a less than careful examination of the facts, and perhaps a bit of promotion for the agency involved. The statement is made by a U.S. government organization that "...using demonstrated methods of extraction, recovery of about 80 billion barrels of oil from accessible high-grade deposits of the Green River Formation is possible at costs competitive with petroleum of comparable quality."(l2) This is a clear misstatement of the facts. At the time it was written (1981) there had been no demonstrated methods of oil recovery at costs competitive with oil of comparable quality, nor have there been any such methods demonstrated to this date. A variety of processes have been tried. All have failed. Unocal, Exxon, Occidental Petroleum, and other companies and the U.S. Bureau of Mines have made substantial efforts but with no commercial results."
"A state government agency issued a pamphlet on oil shale stating, "The deposits are estimated to contain 562 billion barrels of recoverable oil. This is more than 64 percent of the world's total proven crude oil reserves."(29) The implication here is that the oil which could be "recoverable" could be produced at a net energy profit as if it were barrels of oil from a conventional well. The average citizen seeing this statement in a government publication is led to believe that the United States really has no oil supply problem when oil shales hold "recoverable oil" equal to "more than 64 percent of the world's total proven crude oil reserves." Presumably the United States could tap into this great oil reserve at any time. This is not true at all. All attempts to get this "oil" out of shale have failed economically. Furthermore, the "oil" (and, it is not oil as is crude oil, but this is not stated) may be recoverable but the net energy recovered may not equal the energy used to recover it. If oil is "recovered" but at a net energy loss, the operation is a failure. Also, the environmental impacts of developing shale oil, especially related to the available water supply (the headwaters of the already over used Colorado river), and the disposal of wastes, do not seem manageable, at least a the present time, and perhaps not all."
"The clear implication of both of these government statements is that oil shale is a huge readily available source. Because of the enormous amount of "oil" which has been claimed that could be recovered, this gives a large sense of energy security which does not exist. For this reason it is a particularly dangerous myth. "
**** End of Youngquist quote. This is from Chapter 27 GeoDestinies, by Walter Youngquist PhD & Chair Emeritus, Department of Geology, University of Oregon; National Book Company, 1997; ISBN 0894202995
http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/...amp;dv=true&doc=93
Matthew Simmons presentation on natural gas production. He is one of the top energy investment bankers in the world.
Solar:
"Single crystal wafers are sliced, (approx. 1/3 to 1/2 of a millimetre thick), from a large single crystal ingot which has been grown at around 1400 °C, which is a very expensive process. The silicon must be of a very high purity and have a near perfect crystal structure (see figure 1 (a))." (
http://acre.murdoch.edu.au/refiles/pv/text.html)
"Producing 37 quads with solar technologies would require approximately 173 million ha, or nearly 20% of US land area." David Pimentel et al, ?Renewable Energy: Economic and Environmental Issues,? BioScience 44:8:536-547, p. 545
Coal
"From earlier statistics it can be estimated that the cumulative coal production during the eight hundred years before 1860 amounted altogether to only about 7 billion metric tons, whereas 133 billion metric tons, or 19 times as much coal, was mined during the 110-year period from 1860 to 1970. Also during the entire 9 centuries about 140 billion tons were mined; of this, somewhat more than half was produced during the 34-year period from 1940 to 1970. "
http://www.technocracy.org/articles/hub-gro.html
Jay Hanson, "Energetic Limits to Growth," Energy Magazine, Spring 1999 states that we use 50% of our current oil infrastructure to mine coal.
Methane Hydrates:
?One might think that methane is so densely packed in solid hydrate that Blake Ridge nevertheless constitutes a rich deposit. After all, when a cubic meter of gas hydrate decomposes, the products are 0.79 cubic meter of water and 172 cubic meters of methane at 60 degrees F and 1 atmosphere pressure. While that seems impressive, a petroleum engineer would note that the density of methane in the solid hydrate is only 0.12 gram per cubic centimeter. A gas well drilled into a formation with 2 percent methane at this density is considered a ?dry hole.?? Robert L. Kleinberg and Peter G. Brewer, ?Probing Gas Hydrate Deposits,? American Scientist, 89(May-June 2001), 244-251, p. 246
?Another barrier is the considerable expense of operations at the edge of the continental shelf. Although drilling at these water depths has become possible in the past decade, the massive rigs needed cost in the range of a billion dollars. It is probably safe to say that there will be windmills on the roofs of homes before Blake Ridge is exploited for its natural gas.? Robert L. Kleinberg and Peter G. Brewer, ?Probing Gas Hydrate Deposits,? American Scientist, 89(May-June 2001), 244-251, p. 247
Fuel Cells:
?This is what we might call the ?electric kettle problem?. Fuel cells, like electric kettles, emit only steam. But kettles are powered by electricity generated in power stations that burn coal or oil And fuel cells are powered by hydrogen made by ?well, by what? You cannot mine hydrogen or pluck it from the air. It has to be manufactured. And the method of manufacture determines the pollution.? Fred Pierce, ?Kicking the Habit,? New Scientist, Nov. 25, 2000, p. 39
One must burn oil/coal/natural gas to create the hydrogen. At each step of the transformation, one gets about 20% of the initial energy converted to useful work. Today we have the situation of
oil->engine converted to work=20% efficiency.
By creating hydrogen rather than burning the primary fuel directly, one must burn more primary energy per unit useful work with fuel cells. What the fuel cell will do for us is:
oil-> hydrogen=20% efficiency
hydrogen->fuel cell converted to work=20% efficiency.
(20% is used for illustrative purposes--whatever the efficiency, it will be less than merely burning the oil directly)
A good overview of everything said here + more is at this website.
http://denbeste.nu/cd_log_entr...ManhattanProject.shtml
Also, check out any of Dr. David Pimental's research. It is pretty sobering to see we won't be able to supply more than 35-50% of our current oil budget without massive investment, a huge loss of arable land, a loss of consumptionable food and about a generations worth of work.
