know of an algorithm to estimate the cost of a comp in a few years

[dpopiz]

I'm trying to get an estimate of what a certain hardware config will cost in about 2 years based on what it costs now.
have any ideas?

 

[chiwawa626]

For a top of the line computer? the price is prolly the year it is 🙂 Like 2003 dollars would get you a nice computer.

 

[optoman]

My guess is about 25-50% of what you paid today. Some items sell for more then others and it depends how much you paid for it and when in the products life cycle you bought it.

 

[dpopiz]

I'm looking at a computer that has a mix of some very low end components, some mid-range, and some high-end

 

[DaveSimmons]

Windows OS: same or higher
Low end: same or higher (CD-ROM won't get cheaper, it will probably just turn into a DVD-ROM)
mid: down to a lower-end equivalent (for example 120 GB drive will drop from $120-150 to $75-90).
high: 25-50% of current / 50-75% drop (for example, 3 GHz CPU will be at most $150, 200 GB hard drive will be $100-150 ).

This is for "newegg prices" not RossMAN's extra special "get paid to buy it" Hot Deals 🙂

 

[calpha]

Yah I know of an algorithm. Just like buying a car.

Buy it brand new and lose about %20 immediately. Keep it four years and it's more valuable for collecting dust then trying to box it up and sell it.

I've heard more then once, but have never confirmed, that if you donate a computer within two years of the initial purchase, you can write off 100% of the original value, but I've never looked into it. Supposedly a few years back there was a program in my hometown to do just that by donating to financially strapped schools, and lower-income families.

So, a $2000 computer in two years with a tax bracket of 33% would let you save ~$600 on your taxes.

 

[Steve819]

Look at Moore's Law.

 

[DaveSimmons]

Originally posted by: Steve819
Look at Moore's Law.

But it only applies to ICs and (so far) hard drive platters, and it only works for predicting prices of items currently at or near the high end. Items nearer the low end don't drop to 1/2 price, they disappear (intel desktop CPUs under something like 2.6 GHz won't exist in 2005).