Kamala vs the Orange Felon - Presidential Race 2024 - Polls, News, Etc...

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hal2kilo

Lifer
Feb 24, 2009
24,230
10,878
136
More than a possibility.. quite likely due to dems shooting themselves in the foot over the Gaza issue.

We can hope project 2025/ dobbs/ bans is enough but honestly.. if grab em by the pussy couldn't hurt Trump.. you know he's not losing his base. They'll stick with him because they want to own err kill the libs.
Thanks because of 85% of what I want is not enough Dems like you.
 

Indus

Lifer
May 11, 2002
11,880
8,304
136
Thanks because of 85% of what I want is not enough Dems like you.

I don't think they were dems in the first place.

As for me.. 3 simple issues:

1. healthcare
2. lgbt rights
3. democracy
 
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cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
23,993
13,519
136
Sean Hannity seems to say Republicans should boycott Disney if ABC isn’t nice to Big Baby Donald at the debate, which comes as some surprise, as I thought they were already boycotting Disney because of "WOKE" shit or something.



Oh No's ... A Double Secret Disney Boycott!
Well Elon Musk logic would sue Fox for creating a cartel to conspire against Disney there...
 
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dlerious

Golden Member
Mar 4, 2004
1,885
758
136
So suppose its a coin toss, and for 10 presidents all you'd need is 2^10 ~ 1024 nostradumbasses to toss the coin and on average you'd have one of them hit 10 predictions correctly.

So is Lichtman a Paul? What you say?
He was wrong about Trump in 2016. His book and a paper claimed popular vote prior, now he claims EC.
 
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Mar 11, 2004
23,280
5,722
146
A quote from a recent Tucker Carlson speech.

It's weird how much being called weird bothers them.

It's weird how they are hurt by being called weird, and then say batshit weird things right after that.

"I just hope that you remember no matter what happens after this and it's the beginning of September of an election year, So I can promise you America will not look as it does today in two months. It won't. It won't. A lot's gonna happen that we can't control or predict. But trust me. It'll be a different place by the first week of November.
But no matter what happens and I'm praying for good outcomes of course I know everybody in this room is no matter what happens just remember that you are not weird.
So weird.
Say they castrate your children.
People. It's just weird.
Okay.
Say that.
Well, I love you, too, and. But what I wanted to say is everyone, every kind of normal person, which is the overwhelming majority of people in this country and this world, actually, particularly in this country, no matter where they're from, no matter what they look like or who they voted for in the past, they know that."


Best response to that is "what a weird thing to say."
 

Moonbeam

Elite Member
Nov 24, 1999
73,286
6,352
126
Oh shit, it's Mr. Creosote! Eet's just a very thin wafer of a question.

I like your Cicero quote. I wish I could permanently enter such a state. This notion of gratitude has been coming at me from all directions as I seek understanding from wise people. Looks like you're one of them, not that I didn't already know.
 

Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
38,409
8,703
136
Don't know what to make of this. I guess it's a positive sign in one way, yet always associate him with the invasion of Iraq and the Bush era in general so not sure it's entirely a good thing to have him on Kamala's side. Have to wonder if it says as much about Kamala and the Democrats as it does about Trump and the current Republican Party.

Aw, come on. Cheney's a 1 or 2 on the treason scale, Trump is a 10. Liz Cheney's 100x as sane as your average Republican politician. You don't expect her father to have an inkling of that?
 

Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
38,409
8,703
136
Sean Hannity seems to say Republicans should boycott Disney if ABC isn’t nice to Big Baby Donald at the debate, which comes as some surprise, as I thought they were already boycotting Disney because of "WOKE" shit or something.



Oh No's ... A Double Secret Disney Boycott!
TBH, I haven't been to a Disney park in many decades but if I did I'd be glad to not be surrounded by Republicans. :colbert:

Edit: And I hope ABC nails Trump to the wall Tuesday night. My impression is that I have been encountering less Republican propaganda on ABC than CBS and NBC.
 

Indus

Lifer
May 11, 2002
11,880
8,304
136
Aw, come on. Cheney's a 1 or 2 on the treason scale, Trump is a 10. Liz Cheney's 100x as sane as your average Republican politician. You don't expect her father to have an inkling of that?

Read my conspiracy theory thread.. Cheney doesn't even make a 1 imo..
 

dlerious

Golden Member
Mar 4, 2004
1,885
758
136

manly

Lifer
Jan 25, 2000
11,852
2,807
136
Does this count?
Meh, his 2016 prediction included the verbiage that the election could go either way. 2016 and esp. 2000 were very close elections. I'm not convinced his 13 Keys have predictive power, but his track record overall is pretty good.

Remember that the rough consensus in 2016 was something like Hillary 90% to win. Even 538 had Hillary as 70% to win in their final call, and Nate Silver admitted that the polls were actually more favorable to Clinton than that. If you think probabilistically, which is what Silver wants people to do, 538 was more right than wrong.

Allan Lichtman could well be misrepresenting his book/paper but he called Trump in Sept 2016 when virtually nobody else did. It's kind of ridiculous that The Postrider wrote an entire feature length article on that LOL.
 

Dave_5k

Golden Member
May 23, 2017
1,894
3,628
136
Well, he should be talking about kids getting shot up at school solely due to NRA/Republican gun nuttery resulting in severe injuries and deaths and how he’s advising folks once again to “just get over it”. but instead I think he’s completely fabricating (as always) a completely non-existent issue with precisely 0 cases on gender assignment surgery on minors without parents knowing.
 
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Indus

Lifer
May 11, 2002
11,880
8,304
136
Well, he should be talking about kids getting shot up at school solely due to NRA/Republican gun nuttery resulting in severe injuries and deaths and how he’s advising folks once again to “just get over it”. but instead I think he’s completely fabricating (as always) a completely non-existent issue with precisely 0 cases on gender assignment surgery on minors without parents knowing.

Holy shit.. he doesn't know jack shit.

As someone who's dealt with this.. in New York if you want gender assignment surgery you need 10 visits to confirm you're not crazy and a letter from two different doctors confirming gender dysphoria and a legit candidate for gender surgery before the doctor will even see you for an appointment.

That fabrication is so unrealistic.. like more of a chance some kid can get shot in a school or have a fight with classmates or get bullied.. but gender surgery out of the blue.. that's impossible.
 
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brycejones

Lifer
Oct 18, 2005
27,655
26,756
136
Holy shit.. he doesn't know jack shit.

As someone who's dealt with this.. in New York if you want gender assignment surgery you need 10 visits to confirm you're not crazy and a letter from two different doctors confirming gender dysphoria and a legit candidate for gender surgery before the doctor will even see you for an appointment.

That fabrication is so unrealistic.. like more of a chance some kid can get shot in a school or have a fight with classmates or get bullied.. but gender surgery out of the blue.. that's impossible.
Obviously you haven’t been to the woke sex change centers known as public school.
 

dlerious

Golden Member
Mar 4, 2004
1,885
758
136
Meh, his 2016 prediction included the verbiage that the election could go either way. 2016 and esp. 2000 were very close elections. I'm not convinced his 13 Keys have predictive power, but his track record overall is pretty good.

Remember that the rough consensus in 2016 was something like Hillary 90% to win. Even 538 had Hillary as 70% to win in their final call, and Nate Silver admitted that the polls were actually more favorable to Clinton than that. If you think probabilistically, which is what Silver wants people to do, 538 was more right than wrong.

Allan Lichtman could well be misrepresenting his book/paper but he called Trump in Sept 2016 when virtually nobody else did. It's kind of ridiculous that The Postrider wrote an entire feature length article on that LOL.
I'm not saying he didn't claim Trump would win. I'm saying his claim was Trump winning the popular vote was wrong. It's a long article, but near the end has these points:
  1. His paper predicting each election between 2004 and 2012, which he publishes every four years in the journal Social Education. In 2012, for example, he wrote: “As a national system, the Keys predict the popular vote, not the state-by-state tally of Electoral College votes.”
  2. In Lichtman’s rebuttal to Nate Silver, published in 2011: “the keys are not designed to estimate percentages, but only popular vote winners and losers.”
  3. In the edition of his book released for the 2016 election, released in May 2016, where he writes: “they predict only the national popular vote and not the vote within individual states.”
  4. And, most clearly, in Lichtman’s published paper from October of 2016 predicting the outcome of the election, where he writes that “the Keys predict the popular vote, not the state-by-state tally of Electoral College votes.”