Lenovo online orders give the most pessimistic estimate of shipping. My T60 shipped a few days after I ordered, much to my surprise. This was end of November in the middle of the holiday sale. I got the box less than one week from the moment I ordered (7 days).
So far, I'm unaware of any problems. I didn't get an extended warranty and figure it might be a good investment. I believe I have one year from the order date to take them up on that offer. I'm not a heavy user. Sometimes I use it daily, but a week or more can go by without my using it. On top of that, so far exclusive of one plane trip, I've only used it at home. I'm careful with it and in a contolled environment I figure I'm less apt to have a problem. Still, I think the ext. warranty might be worth the money. I don't care about on-site, but I figure if things start going wrong it could get pretty expensive to fix them without warranty coverage. Some people have a laundry list of things that have gone wrong with their Thinkpads.