just bought some shares in apple computers (aapl)

puffff

Platinum Member
Jun 25, 2004
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do you actually know what percentage of apple's revenues come from the iPod? or are you going by gut feeling and hype?
 

TranceNation

Platinum Member
Jan 6, 2001
2,041
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Originally posted by: puffff
do you actually know what percentage of apple's revenues come from the iPod? or are you going by gut feeling and hype?

enough that it's gonna drive market share up
http://www.forbes.com/markets/...er=yahoo&referrer=

"We believe a 0.5% increase in market share, to 2.5%, would have a significant impact on numbers," increasing calendar 2005 and 2006 Mac sales by 16% and 24%, respectively, Piper Jaffray said. "Despite potential supply issues in the September quarter, demand remains strong, and we believe that over the next two years Apple has the ability to grow its market share ahead of expectations," the research firm said. "This will be driven by greater-than-expected adoption of iPod/Hewlett-Packard (nyse: HPQ - news - people ) iPod, translating to acceleration in sales of Macs."
 

Gibson486

Lifer
Aug 9, 2000
18,378
2
0
Originally posted by: TranceNation
Originally posted by: puffff
do you actually know what percentage of apple's revenues come from the iPod? or are you going by gut feeling and hype?

enough that it's gonna drive market share up
http://www.forbes.com/markets/...er=yahoo&referrer=

"We believe a 0.5% increase in market share, to 2.5%, would have a significant impact on numbers," increasing calendar 2005 and 2006 Mac sales by 16% and 24%, respectively, Piper Jaffray said. "Despite potential supply issues in the September quarter, demand remains strong, and we believe that over the next two years Apple has the ability to grow its market share ahead of expectations," the research firm said. "This will be driven by greater-than-expected adoption of iPod/Hewlett-Packard (nyse: HPQ - news - people ) iPod, translating to acceleration in sales of Macs."

That's just a prediction. If people base their decision to buy on that, every company would have stocks going above the roof. That said, it is not really a great time to buy Apple stock, but it's not a bad time either.....
 

rh71

No Lifer
Aug 28, 2001
52,844
1,049
126
what are you... trying to boost activity for more gain err something ?
 
Sep 29, 2004
18,656
68
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Originally posted by: Gibson486
Originally posted by: TranceNation
Originally posted by: puffff
do you actually know what percentage of apple's revenues come from the iPod? or are you going by gut feeling and hype?

enough that it's gonna drive market share up
http://www.forbes.com/markets/...er=yahoo&referrer=

"We believe a 0.5% increase in market share, to 2.5%, would have a significant impact on numbers," increasing calendar 2005 and 2006 Mac sales by 16% and 24%, respectively, Piper Jaffray said. "Despite potential supply issues in the September quarter, demand remains strong, and we believe that over the next two years Apple has the ability to grow its market share ahead of expectations," the research firm said. "This will be driven by greater-than-expected adoption of iPod/Hewlett-Packard (nyse: HPQ - news - people ) iPod, translating to acceleration in sales of Macs."

That's just a prediction. If people base their decision to buy on that, every company would have stocks going above the roof. That said, it is not really a great time to buy Apple stock, but it's not a bad time either.....

According to Cramer, MRK is going to go under over Vioxx, even though MRK has insurance for such lawsuits not to mention the testing done by the FDA and MRK was pretty damned good. It's like sueing an auto maker becasue you might be able to hit a tree with your car. Not frivolous lawsuits, but it will probably settle out of court.

To be honest, go look at what Value Line has to say about Apple. Sounds like you are buying into the hype, which the cited article is. nothing but hype.
 
Sep 29, 2004
18,656
68
91
No offense, but to justify the current quotation, AAPL needs to have 40% growth over the next 4 years. Good luck with that one. I doubt IPOD sales will be that good. Thanks for pointing out this short candidate though.

EIDT: I just looked at growth prospects overall. Projected 5 year growth is 15% annually. The next year or two should show much better growth though. That is an important factor. That would put the fair value at $20 or so, but the cash on hand ups that number by an additional $12/share. You just paid $39 for a $32 stock.

Could I be wrong?
Sure: "we believe that over the next two years Apple has the ability to grow its market share ahead of expectations"

IMHO: THe short term growth prospects have caused irrational optimism. In 2 years, this is going to be a slow growth comapny and the P/E will plummet.

 

TranceNation

Platinum Member
Jan 6, 2001
2,041
0
0
Originally posted by: IHateMyJob2004
No offense, but to justify the current quotation, AAPL needs to have 40% growth over the next 4 years. Good luck with that one. I doubt IPOD sales will be that good. Thanks for pointing out this short candidate though.

EIDT: I just looked at growth prospects overall. Projected 5 year growth is 15% annually. The next year or two should show much better growth though. That is an important factor. That would put the fair value at $20 or so, but the cash on hand ups that number by an additional $12/share. You just paid $39 for a $32 stock.

Could I be wrong?
Sure: "we believe that over the next two years Apple has the ability to grow its market share ahead of expectations"

IMHO: THe short term growth prospects have caused irrational optimism. In 2 years, this is going to be a slow growth comapny and the P/E will plummet.


apparently its a $45 stock now :) I'm not a long time investor by the way so when you say anything beyond a year I tune out lol
 

ReiAyanami

Diamond Member
Sep 24, 2002
4,466
0
0
"the gurus are saying buy buy buy!!"

time to sell

at forward p/e ratio 47, that's some pretty lofty expectations. well its no research in motion
 

jhu

Lifer
Oct 10, 1999
11,918
9
81
Originally posted by: IHateMyJob2004
Originally posted by: Gibson486
Originally posted by: TranceNation
Originally posted by: puffff
do you actually know what percentage of apple's revenues come from the iPod? or are you going by gut feeling and hype?

enough that it's gonna drive market share up
http://www.forbes.com/markets/...er=yahoo&referrer=

"We believe a 0.5% increase in market share, to 2.5%, would have a significant impact on numbers," increasing calendar 2005 and 2006 Mac sales by 16% and 24%, respectively, Piper Jaffray said. "Despite potential supply issues in the September quarter, demand remains strong, and we believe that over the next two years Apple has the ability to grow its market share ahead of expectations," the research firm said. "This will be driven by greater-than-expected adoption of iPod/Hewlett-Packard (nyse: HPQ - news - people ) iPod, translating to acceleration in sales of Macs."

That's just a prediction. If people base their decision to buy on that, every company would have stocks going above the roof. That said, it is not really a great time to buy Apple stock, but it's not a bad time either.....

According to Cramer, MRK is going to go under over Vioxx, even though MRK has insurance for such lawsuits not to mention the testing done by the FDA and MRK was pretty damned good. It's like sueing an auto maker becasue you might be able to hit a tree with your car. Not frivolous lawsuits, but it will probably settle out of court.

To be honest, go look at what Value Line has to say about Apple. Sounds like you are buying into the hype, which the cited article is. nothing but hype.

i don't think merck is going to be bankrupt anytime soon. just look at how poorly beaten down philip-morris was 5 years ago when the lawsuits came. since then it's floated back up.
 

TranceNation

Platinum Member
Jan 6, 2001
2,041
0
0
Originally posted by: ReiAyanami
"the gurus are saying buy buy buy!!"

time to sell

at forward p/e ratio 47, that's some pretty lofty expectations. well its no research in motion

btw, it's in the $55 range now :) good thing nobody really listened to your sell call :)
 

jhu

Lifer
Oct 10, 1999
11,918
9
81
Originally posted by: TranceNation
Originally posted by: ReiAyanami
"the gurus are saying buy buy buy!!"

time to sell

at forward p/e ratio 47, that's some pretty lofty expectations. well its no research in motion

btw, it's in the $55 range now :) good thing nobody really listened to your sell call :)

at that price, it's driven by emotion more than anything else.
 

Wahsapa

Diamond Member
Jul 2, 2001
3,004
0
0
dude i tryed to talk my dad into buying apple stock when it was at $12 back in like 98.... :(