Question Just a regular guy asking for some predictions about CPUs in the next few years...

[Caveman]

Context: I just bought a 7700X as a bridge to when the 3d versions of the 7X series are available for a reasonable price (hoping maybe about this time next year).

1) I'm assuming the 7800X3d chip (or whatever 7X numerical variants will be made into the 3d version) will achieve at least 25%-30% more performance than a 7700X. Is that a fair assumption?

2) How many CPU families is the AM5 socket supposed to realistically support? My understanding is that the 7X series in use now will be replaced by another 2 possible updates before AM5 is phased out in ~2025? Sound right? Maybe a 9X then 11X series?

3) Follow on to question 2. How long before AMDs next series of CPUs that will drop into the current AM5 socket? What kind of performance jump is expected on each "next iteration" (9X, 11X, etc...). The 5X series was a pretty good jump up from the 3X series in many ways. Is a 9X predicted to also be a similar amount better than the 7X series?

Thoughts on these 3 questions?

 

[Markfw]

Context: I just bought a 7700X as a bridge to when the 3d versions of the 7X series are available for a reasonable price (hoping maybe about this time next year).

1) I'm assuming the 7800X3d chip (or whatever 7X numerical variants will be made into the 3d version) will achieve at least 25%-30% more performance than a 7700X. Is that a fair assumption?

2) How many CPU families is the AM5 socket supposed to realistically support? My understanding is that the 7X series in use now will be replaced by another 2 possible updates before AM5 is phased out in ~2025? Sound right? Maybe a 9X then 11X series?

3) Follow on to question 2. How long before AMDs next series of CPUs that will drop into the current AM5 socket? What kind of performance jump is expected on each "next iteration" (9X, 11X, etc...). The 5X series was a pretty good jump up from the 3X series in many ways. Is a 9X predicted to also be a similar amount better than the 7X series?

Thoughts on these 3 questions?

1) really unknowmn, but thats a good guess ONLY FOR GAMING
2) 2-4 again unknown but thats my guess
3) the x3d chips are next and its in the next 6 months. After that another year ?

No mater what some say, I say Zen 3 > Zen 4 is a big jump, like 20% or more for what I do. The next ? No idea.

 

[IEC]

Hey, there are at least two of us doing the 7700X --> X3D path. I just upgraded today to a 7700X

My thoughts
1) If you're talking games, it's a safe bet we'll see a leap in performance similar to what we saw with the 5800X3D. Whether it will be as good as 5800X-->X3D or it will be more modest gains remains to be seen, but I see it as a safe assumption that it will take the gaming crown. As someone who games on a 240Hz monitor I'm looking forward to it.

2) They committed to 2025 at minimum. Compared to Zen1/AM4 launch my transition to AM5 as a new platform was painless. Everything worked out of the box. I haven't run into weird BIOS bugs. First time using DDR5 and it's pleasantly painless. Judging by how incredibly overbuilt the VRMs on X670E boards are and their insistence on supporting both PCIe 5.0 for both GPU and m.2, I think AM5 as a platform is as pretty "future proof" as it gets. Exactly how many generations of chips it will support remains to be seen but AMD seems to be iterating pretty rapidly so I'd anticipate 2-3 is the general expectation.

3) If AM5 launch is similar to my experience with 1800X/AM4 launch, then I anticipate the next Zen will be a pretty decent iteration with better DDR5 support, better clocks, tamed hotspots... my usual practice of using PBO to limit PPT seems to have tamed my 7700X @ 95W PPT to the point it runs within margin of error for ST performance and -9% on MT performance while using vastly less power. And running on my cheap 92mm mini-tower cooler.

 

[turtile]

Context: I just bought a 7700X as a bridge to when the 3d versions of the 7X series are available for a reasonable price (hoping maybe about this time next year).

1) I'm assuming the 7800X3d chip (or whatever 7X numerical variants will be made into the 3d version) will achieve at least 25%-30% more performance than a 7700X. Is that a fair assumption?

That's just a rumor. The performance will depend on AMD's ability to clock the chips the same. I think 15-20% sounds more reasonable.

2) How many CPU families is the AM5 socket supposed to realistically support? My understanding is that the 7X series in use now will be replaced by another 2 possible updates before AM5 is phased out in ~2025? Sound right? Maybe a 9X then 11X series?

This is still unknown. Because Zen 5 should be released during the first half of 2024, we can assume that Zen 6 should be supported since they threw in an extra year.

3) Follow on to question 2. How long before AMDs next series of CPUs that will drop into the current AM5 socket? What kind of performance jump is expected on each "next iteration" (9X, 11X, etc...). The 5X series was a pretty good jump up from the 3X series in many ways. Is a 9X predicted to also be a similar amount better than the 7X series?

20-25% is a good guess for Zen 5. They are using the N4 node so there will be limited gains from the node itself. The rest will come with architecture. This will basically mirror the jump from Zen 2 to Zen 3. 19% IPC gain with a slight clock increase.

 

[Caveman]

Thanks so much for the responses. I'm feeling much more enlightened though the PPT/MT discussion went over my head (for now at least).

All in all, it sounds like maybe we could expect another 1.5-2X performance over the current 7X series by the time another 2 iterations with x3d drops near the end of the 2025 cycle... That seems decent.

 

[alcoholbob]

Depends on launch cadence AMD goes for, but its possible Zen 5+ will be the end of the platform giving the timing they provided. Zen 6 will have to be a massive upgrade to deal with Jim Keller’s new royal core CPUs and may end up needing a new platform.

 

[turtile]

Depends on launch cadence AMD goes for, but its possible Zen 5+ will be the end of the platform giving the timing they provided. Zen 6 will have to be a massive upgrade to deal with Jim Keller’s new royal core CPUs and may end up needing a new platform.

Zen 5 is the major architecture change to compete with Intel. Intel is just way behind on their schedule. If AMD's cycle remains the same, there should be Zen 6 released as an optimized version of Zen 5.

I don't think Intel can pull ahead until they get to 2nm. Zen 5 is likely to have 96 cores on N4, and the rumors point to Zen 5c on N3 consisting of 256 cores. If my understanding is correct, N3's game-changing feature is the ability to optimize the process for each component on the same wafer without stacking. So if Zen 5c cuts the cache in half, they can cut the die size in half again by using a cache-optimized library. When AMD optimizes for Zen 6, they can greatly reduce the cache space and increase the core count.

 

[IEC]

For the more visual learners:

Source: Hardware Unboxed Q&A "Does platform longevity matter?" from 11/27/2022

As you can see, versus the 5000 non-X3D series which was already no slouch in gaming, the minimum FPS is now boosted to what the average FPS was previously. And the 5800X3D actually gives a viable option for AM4 to reach newest gen levels of performance without paying latest gen prices. But AM5 despite early adopter status is showing clear superiority here.

In numbers, 7700X vs 5800X:
Min FPS = 38% better
Avg FPS = 35% better

This is despite the 7000 series being the first gen on the new AM5 platform and more akin to the 1800X/1700 when they first launched. New platform, early adopter tax, teething issues. Consumers were wise to this and voted with their wallets forcing AMD to slash CPU prices to compensate for the early adopter tax on AM5 mobos and DDR5.

I anticipate pricing will get better in H1 2023 due to a number of factors including weak macroeconomic trends, deflationary pressures/poor demand, and economies of scale+elimination of early adopter tax.

 

[Glo.]

Instead of asking for making predictions about CPUs, ask for predictions about software paradigms.

 

[moinmoin]

Instead of asking for making predictions about CPUs, ask for predictions about software paradigms.

That one is easy. If you already got software and games their paradigm won't ever change!

 

[Caveman]

Again this is all very interesting... This thread would make a great outline for an article. Isn't this really what people who adopt a new architecture/socket really car about anyway - how far/fast it will take them at the end? Thanks for the visual of the performance jump. And... Jim Keller’s new royal core - that sounds interesting whatever it is