Jobless Claims fell Sharply Last Week

alchemize

Lifer
Mar 24, 2000
11,489
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Originally posted by: xxxxxJohnGaltxxxxx
Is this good or bad? I didn't get my copy of the Democrat's talking-points this morning, so I am not sure what to make of this.
Check out chicken little's omnibus thread. He'll explain it to you that it's all smoke and mirrors.

The end is nigh.
 
Jan 12, 2003
3,498
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Originally posted by: DealMonkey
Is everything a partisan battleground for you guys? Geeze, give it a rest.

I was being serious; I need to know if the sky is falling, or if everything is coming uproses...everytime I think someone is "good," I am told that it is baaahhhhhd. My fax was tied up, so I didn't get the memo and thus have no idea how to think.
 

alchemize

Lifer
Mar 24, 2000
11,489
0
0
Originally posted by: DealMonkey
Is everything a partisan battleground for you guys? Geeze, give it a rest.
Economics (generally) aren't partisan to me :) But their analysis may be....I just like to make fun of chicken little.

Here I'll post what I posted in the uber-thread also...

current period versus last period order...

Consumer Confidence Nov.* 91.7 81.7
Retail sales Nov.* 0.9% 0.0%
GDP Q3* 8.2% 3.3%
ISM Index Nov.* 62.8 57.0
Factory Orders Sept.* 0.5% -0.3%
Unemployment Rate Nov. 5.9% 6.0%
Employment situation Nov.* 57,000 137,000
Consumer inflation Nov. 1.1% 1.3%
Housing starts Nov.* 2,070,000 1,980,000
Home sales Oct.* 7,455,000 7,825,000

Scary stuff huh? We're heading off a cliff aaaaaaah!

source
Bolded the dramatic ones. All but 2 are positive changes.
 

DealMonkey

Lifer
Nov 25, 2001
13,136
1
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Originally posted by: xxxxxJohnGaltxxxxx
Originally posted by: DealMonkey
Is everything a partisan battleground for you guys? Geeze, give it a rest.
I was being serious; I need to know if the sky is falling, or if everything is coming uproses...everytime I think someone is "good," I am told that it is baaahhhhhd. My fax was tied up, so I didn't get the memo and thus have no idea how to think.
You need someone to do your thinking for you? Hmmmm.
 
Jan 12, 2003
3,498
0
0
Originally posted by: DealMonkey
Originally posted by: xxxxxJohnGaltxxxxx
Originally posted by: DealMonkey
Is everything a partisan battleground for you guys? Geeze, give it a rest.
I was being serious; I need to know if the sky is falling, or if everything is coming uproses...everytime I think someone is "good," I am told that it is baaahhhhhd. My fax was tied up, so I didn't get the memo and thus have no idea how to think.
You need someone to do your thinking for you? Hmmmm.
Yes. I need to have a sense of belonging, which the collectivists are always willing to provide, providing I view things as they do....

 

lozina

Lifer
Sep 10, 2001
11,707
5
0
Originally posted by: alchemize
Originally posted by: DealMonkey
Is everything a partisan battleground for you guys? Geeze, give it a rest.
Economics (generally) aren't partisan to me :) But their analysis may be....I just like to make fun of chicken little.

Here I'll post what I posted in the uber-thread also...

current period versus last period order...

Consumer Confidence Nov.* 91.7 81.7
Retail sales Nov.* 0.9% 0.0%
GDP Q3* 8.2% 3.3%
ISM Index Nov.* 62.8 57.0
Factory Orders Sept.* 0.5% -0.3%
Unemployment Rate Nov. 5.9% 6.0%
Employment situation Nov.* 57,000 137,000
Consumer inflation Nov. 1.1% 1.3%
Housing starts Nov.* 2,070,000 1,980,000
Home sales Oct.* 7,455,000 7,825,000

Scary stuff huh? We're heading off a cliff aaaaaaah!

source
Bolded the dramatic ones. All but 2 are positive changes.

That's all well and good but how bout our dollar?
 

LunarRay

Diamond Member
Mar 2, 2003
9,993
1
76
Originally posted by: xxxxxJohnGaltxxxxx
Is this good or bad? I didn't get my copy of the Democrat's talking-points this morning, so I am not sure what to make of this.
For example, the confidence interval for the monthly change in total
employment from the household survey is on the order of plus or minus
290,000. Suppose the estimate of total employment increases by 100,000
from one month to the next. The 90-percent confidence interval on the
monthly change would range from -190,000 to 390,000 (100,000 +/- 290,000).
These figures do not mean that the sample results are off by these
magnitudes, but rather that there is about a 90-percent chance that the
"true" over-the-month change lies within this interval. Since this range
includes values of less than zero, we could not say with confidence that
employment had, in fact, increased. If, however, the reported employment
rise was half a million, then all of the values within the 90-percent
confidence interval would be greater than zero. In this case, it is likely
(at least a 90-percent chance) that an employment rise had, in fact,
occurred. At an unemployment rate of around 4 percent, the 90-percent con-
fidence interval for the monthly change in unemployment is about +/- 270,000,
and for the monthly change in the unemployment rate it is about +/- .19
percentage point.
From the BLS, so I'd not make too much of it.. yet!
tool on down to the section called 'reliability of the estimates'
 

alchemize

Lifer
Mar 24, 2000
11,489
0
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Originally posted by: lozina
Originally posted by: alchemize
Originally posted by: DealMonkey
Is everything a partisan battleground for you guys? Geeze, give it a rest.
Economics (generally) aren't partisan to me :) But their analysis may be....I just like to make fun of chicken little.

Here I'll post what I posted in the uber-thread also...

current period versus last period order...

Consumer Confidence Nov.* 91.7 81.7
Retail sales Nov.* 0.9% 0.0%
GDP Q3* 8.2% 3.3%
ISM Index Nov.* 62.8 57.0
Factory Orders Sept.* 0.5% -0.3%
Unemployment Rate Nov. 5.9% 6.0%
Employment situation Nov.* 57,000 137,000
Consumer inflation Nov. 1.1% 1.3%
Housing starts Nov.* 2,070,000 1,980,000
Home sales Oct.* 7,455,000 7,825,000

Scary stuff huh? We're heading off a cliff aaaaaaah!

source
Bolded the dramatic ones. All but 2 are positive changes.

That's all well and good but how bout our dollar?
Depends on your economic school of thought. I think a low dollar in the long run can be helpful as it helps to ease the deficit by reducing imports and increasing exports. We don't want it to get too low, as that could ding the stock market and our treasuries, upping interest rates. But worldwide interest rates are so low that any treasuries the US is issuing are coming at a bargain in the long term. Something to keep an eye on.

Truth is a low dollar is going to add jobs. Is that a bad thing to you?


"At the margin it is a positive for U.S. growth. Over time, it should benefit the U.S. economy," said Jade Zelnik, chief economist at RBS Greenwich Capital Markets Inc. "It should be helpful, given that we have had a long period of a strong dollar."
 

dahunan

Lifer
Jan 10, 2002
18,191
3
0
Hey Dubya Lovers.. Doesn't this happen evey year AT THIS TIME... DUH!!!

Why is this even news??

This is the same as

"Temperatures fell Sharply in December"
 

lozina

Lifer
Sep 10, 2001
11,707
5
0
Originally posted by: alchemize


Truth is a low dollar is going to add jobs. Is that a bad thing to you?

You say that as if it is fact, but it's only an opinion- a forecast. As you mentioned, our treasuries are at risk. As the dollar gets weaker foreign countries which have US dollars & treasuries in reserve may sell them off and switch to Euro. Also, if oil producing countries start pricing their il to the Euro it will also be catastrophic. This is also an opinion.
 

dahunan

Lifer
Jan 10, 2002
18,191
3
0
Originally posted by: lozina
Originally posted by: alchemize


Truth is a low dollar is going to add jobs. Is that a bad thing to you?

You say that as if it is fact, but it's only an opinion- a forecast. As you mentioned, our treasuries are at risk. As the dollar gets weaker foreign countries which have US dollars & treasuries in reserve may sell them off and switch to Euro. Also, if oil producing countries start pricing their il to the Euro it will also be catastrophic. This is also an opinion.


One of the reasons we attacked Iraq is because Saddam converted to the Euro.. we needed to convert it back.... (lets see what that claim gets me :p
 

lozina

Lifer
Sep 10, 2001
11,707
5
0
Originally posted by: dahunan
Originally posted by: lozina
Originally posted by: alchemize


Truth is a low dollar is going to add jobs. Is that a bad thing to you?

You say that as if it is fact, but it's only an opinion- a forecast. As you mentioned, our treasuries are at risk. As the dollar gets weaker foreign countries which have US dollars & treasuries in reserve may sell them off and switch to Euro. Also, if oil producing countries start pricing their il to the Euro it will also be catastrophic. This is also an opinion.


One of the reasons we attacked Iraq is because Saddam converted to the Euro.. we needed to convert it back.... (lets see what that claim gets me :p
Sure, that's another good motive isn't it? There's no reason that should be disregarded... in a typical investigation Police will consider all suspects and motives
 

alchemize

Lifer
Mar 24, 2000
11,489
0
0
Originally posted by: dahunan
Hey Dubya Lovers.. Doesn't this happen evey year AT THIS TIME... DUH!!!

Why is this even news??

This is the same as

"Temperatures fell Sharply in December"
If it's so "DUH", then why don't you back it up with some links?
 

UltraQuiet

Banned
Sep 22, 2001
5,755
0
0
Originally posted by: dahunan
Hey Dubya Lovers.. Doesn't this happen evey year AT THIS TIME... DUH!!!

Why is this even news??

This is the same as

"Temperatures fell Sharply in December"


HEY STUPID THE NUMBERS ARE SEASONALLY ADJUSTED. GET A FRIGGIN CLUE.
 

LunarRay

Diamond Member
Mar 2, 2003
9,993
1
76
IF Nations conclude the dollar will continue to slide they will pull dollar accounts even with a dollar denominated oil.. they can buy dollars with less Euros down the road.
A weaker dollar only hurts when we have to buy foreign goods.. maybe it will reduce the trade deficit in actual products but the ones we do buy cost more.. what we sell abroad may not meet the same attitude as we have here. Buy European is a big issue in Europe. I think they'd rather pay a few franks more in France or Belgium than buy American made goods anyhow.

Like Soylent Green ... Economics is people..
 

ReiAyanami

Diamond Member
Sep 24, 2002
4,466
0
0
eventually the foreigners will have to buy stuff from us. because if they keep collecting our dollars without ever spending them, then that's some really expensive (or cheap?) wallpaper.
 

dahunan

Lifer
Jan 10, 2002
18,191
3
0
Originally posted by: Ultra Quiet
Originally posted by: dahunan
Hey Dubya Lovers.. Doesn't this happen evey year AT THIS TIME... DUH!!!

Why is this even news??

This is the same as

"Temperatures fell Sharply in December"


HEY STUPID THE NUMBERS ARE SEASONALLY ADJUSTED. GET A FRIGGIN CLUE.
GROW UP SUPER NOISY!! ARE YOU PROUD OF YOUR PERSONAL ATTACKS??

 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,894
46
91
www.alienbabeltech.com
Originally posted by: dahunan
Originally posted by: Ultra Quiet
Originally posted by: dahunan
Hey Dubya Lovers.. Doesn't this happen evey year AT THIS TIME... DUH!!!

Why is this even news??

This is the same as

"Temperatures fell Sharply in December"


HEY STUPID THE NUMBERS ARE SEASONALLY ADJUSTED. GET A FRIGGIN CLUE.
GROW UP SUPER NOISY!! ARE YOU PROUD OF YOUR PERSONAL ATTACKS??
They're a lot more than just "seasonally" adjusted.
 

charrison

Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
17,033
1
81
Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Originally posted by: dahunan
Originally posted by: Ultra Quiet
Originally posted by: dahunan
Hey Dubya Lovers.. Doesn't this happen evey year AT THIS TIME... DUH!!!

Why is this even news??

This is the same as

"Temperatures fell Sharply in December"


HEY STUPID THE NUMBERS ARE SEASONALLY ADJUSTED. GET A FRIGGIN CLUE.
GROW UP SUPER NOISY!! ARE YOU PROUD OF YOUR PERSONAL ATTACKS??
They're a lot more than just "seasonally" adjusted.
What should the numbers be?
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,894
46
91
www.alienbabeltech.com
Originally posted by: charrison
Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Originally posted by: dahunan
Originally posted by: Ultra Quiet
Originally posted by: dahunan
Hey Dubya Lovers.. Doesn't this happen evey year AT THIS TIME... DUH!!!

Why is this even news??

This is the same as

"Temperatures fell Sharply in December"


HEY STUPID THE NUMBERS ARE SEASONALLY ADJUSTED. GET A FRIGGIN CLUE.
GROW UP SUPER NOISY!! ARE YOU PROUD OF YOUR PERSONAL ATTACKS??
They're a lot more than just "seasonally" adjusted.
What should the numbers be?
The numbers should be a lot more Good jobs being created than being LOST.

 

charrison

Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
17,033
1
81
Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Originally posted by: charrison
Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Originally posted by: dahunan
Originally posted by: Ultra Quiet
Originally posted by: dahunan
Hey Dubya Lovers.. Doesn't this happen evey year AT THIS TIME... DUH!!!

Why is this even news??

This is the same as

"Temperatures fell Sharply in December"


HEY STUPID THE NUMBERS ARE SEASONALLY ADJUSTED. GET A FRIGGIN CLUE.
GROW UP SUPER NOISY!! ARE YOU PROUD OF YOUR PERSONAL ATTACKS??
They're a lot more than just "seasonally" adjusted.
What should the numbers be?
The numbers should be a lot more Good jobs being created than being LOST.
And that is happening dave.
 

ASK THE COMMUNITY