Job automation - 25% of US Jobs on the Potential Chopping Block

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ch33zw1z

Lifer
Nov 4, 2004
38,202
18,671
146
You’re right they will. Always have and always will. There’s no realistic way otherwise. We can have safety nets which is good but otherwise people have to adapt to become economically profitable.

That's your opinion. Mine is obviously different.
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
111,136
30,086
146
What is ATOTs thoughts on automation?

Of all things, feels good to be on the very bottom rung of that graphic...



colorcorrected2.jpeg

Don't you have to have a job before you can be on any rung? hi-yo!
 
Nov 8, 2012
20,828
4,777
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Don't you have to have a job before you can be on any rung? hi-yo!

Psh until I get my next job my official title is stay at home dad! Which, according to this article - it says I have the work of a job that is paid $162,581 because it makes me feel good to think that. ;)


But yeah, every week I have 3-4 calls from initial interviews and follow-ups. It's been so long since I haven't been employed I'm enjoying this shit while I can :p
 

pauldun170

Diamond Member
Sep 26, 2011
9,142
5,089
136
It’s going to happen. I work in mortgages and this industry is absolutely becoming automated. And the parts they can’t automate are being outsourced to India. Definitely has me worried. My job itself I don’t think can be automated or outsourced but the people around me though will. They’re currently working on an AI to read and process the docs and ultimately make the decisions. Underwriting which in my opinion needs a human to fully understand the financial situation has already been creeping up on automated for years. Fannie and Freddie have automated underwriting systems (AUS) that basically do the underwrite already. It’s happening.

What do we do though? The doors are closing and I don’t see many opening up unless you know how to code. What does everyone else do? This is going to be a very serious issue over the next decade, much like outsourcing overseas was for the past decade. It will make some rich and many jobless.

Banking industry is looking at pretty significant reductions over the next couple of years and ALL the investments are being put into robotics and AI.

If you are working the retail side, you might want to go back to school for something like baking or rock re-arranger. Maybe Monkey smuggling.

What would be absolutely hilarious is that the end result of all this would be that the top stable fields would be for those who have English degrees and Art history degrees.
 

purbeast0

No Lifer
Sep 13, 2001
53,024
5,905
126
Yeah but I can see the potential to need to adapt for that as well such as learning new languages, no?
Any good software engineer is language agnostic so that is not an issue. Learning new tech and languages is one of the things that makes doing software development fun.
 
Nov 8, 2012
20,828
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What would be absolutely hilarious is that the end result of all this would be that the top stable fields would be for those who have English degrees and Art history degrees.

Nah. The thing is those types of jobs have always been stable...the issue is simply there isn't enough supply of jobs for the amount of people that get those degrees.
 

whm1974

Diamond Member
Jul 24, 2016
9,436
1,567
126
You’re right they will. Always have and always will. There’s no realistic way otherwise. We can have safety nets which is good but otherwise people have to adapt to become economically profitable.
Well I propose that any Basic Income Scheme should have a requirement that people getting it do something productive with their time.

And what I mean by doing something productive are activities that beneficial to both the doer and the rest of society.
 
Nov 8, 2012
20,828
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Well I propose that any Basic Income Scheme should have a requirement that people getting it do something productive with their time.

And what I mean by doing something productive are activities that beneficial to both the doer and the rest of society.

Is contributing to record viewership of television qualify as a "doer"? Because I'm sure Americans can make sure they do their part.
 

paperfist

Diamond Member
Nov 30, 2000
6,520
280
126
www.the-teh.com
Who do you think is pushing for automation?

Obviously those with piles of dough and wanting more.

But what of the resistance? I won’t use self checkouts until I’m forced to.

What of displaced workers? I’m sure millions of people will be happy to loose their jobs to a robot. Some will be too old to be bothered to learn something new others too angry.

And what about scales of economy? If automation forces a basic income then who is even going to be able to afford the very products and services robots replace?
 

whm1974

Diamond Member
Jul 24, 2016
9,436
1,567
126
Is contributing to record viewership of television qualify as a "doer"? Because I'm sure Americans can make sure they do their part.
Hell NO!!! Nothing silly like that, but this would be a good way to give struggling beginning actors a better chance.
 

Fritzo

Lifer
Jan 3, 2001
41,910
2,141
126
I have a lot of manufacturing engineers as clients. They've told me repeatedly that any job requiring 6 actions or less can be easily automated with a robot, it's just a matter of making the upfront investment.

The era of the "mindless starting position" is going to be gone within 50 years. I like to joke that if everyone wants stable employment, get a job making robots :)
 
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whm1974

Diamond Member
Jul 24, 2016
9,436
1,567
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Obviously those with piles of dough and wanting more.

But what of the resistance? I won’t use self checkouts until I’m forced to.

What of displaced workers? I’m sure millions of people will be happy to loose their jobs to a robot. Some will be too old to be bothered to learn something new others too angry.

And what about scales of economy? If automation forces a basic income then who is even going to be able to afford the very products and services robots replace?
Make the Basic Income enough for people to buy said products and services? Granted said Income wouldn't allow people to live the "Lifestyles Of the Rich And Famous", but it should be enough.
 

whm1974

Diamond Member
Jul 24, 2016
9,436
1,567
126
I have a lot of manufacturing engineers as clients. They've told me repeatedly that any job requiring 6 actions or less can be easily automated with a robot, it's just a matter of making the upfront investment.

The era of the "mindless starting position" is going to be gone within 50 years. I like to joke that if everyone wants stable employment, get a job making robots :)
Robots Are At Making Other Robots. However they Do Need Humans to Design, Install, and Maintain them.
 

paperfist

Diamond Member
Nov 30, 2000
6,520
280
126
www.the-teh.com
Make the Basic Income enough for people to buy said products and services? Granted said Income wouldn't allow people to live the "Lifestyles Of the Rich And Famous", but it should be enough.

Yeah, but who is going to set the basic income level? If it's the government and you examine welfare and social security payouts (which are always being talked about as going broke) then it's not going to go well. Plus the rich robot owners are going to lobby to make it lower since they'll be the only ones generating and paying taxes.

Also with less income for people to live on there's going to be less customers for automated businesses. So I imagine GDP is going to take a dive and in turn the government will (gasp) have less income to function on.

Really I see it as a ripple effect. China has billions of people to feed and as automation grows and grows every country not living off the land will suffer.

How it works in my industry which is the secondary market side of mortgage banking is India does lots of data entry as the loans come in, they take the documents and key in the info and sort the documents out. They do it at a third the price of Americans so we use them (very common throughout the industry). That’s too much though, they’re looking at using AI to red the docs and autokey everything then run all sorts of c9mpliance tests on it. I see the industry moving towards that too. There will still be humans, but a lot fewer of them.

On the origination side I see the industry moving towards that too. Why have a loan officer when you can make software that takes you application, your financial info, processes it, sends to the underwriter (who also will be using automated software), gives a result, do an e-closing, and bam you get your keys.

Personally I think that's really irresponsible to farm data like that to foreign countries, but I know no one thinks (or cares) long term or the actual costs of doing business when you have to do something with those inevitable data breaches.

Well someone will have to check the data being scanned, right?

I wonder if what's happening to you is regional? Locally here some banks have doubled their work force and increased branches. Though their tellers are like revolving doors, here today, gone tomorrow.
 
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Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
68,459
12,613
126
www.anyf.ca
Don't worry I'm sure trickle down economics will work fine for us. :p

Seriously though I have a feeling things are about to get pretty bad in the next few decades. Throw in climate change to the mix displacing millions of people, and lack of jobs, and people are going to be fighting for food rations.
 

whm1974

Diamond Member
Jul 24, 2016
9,436
1,567
126
Yeah, but who is going to set the basic income level? If it's the government and you examine welfare and social security payouts (which are always being talked about as going broke) then it's not going to go well. Plus the rich robot owners are going to lobby to make it lower since they'll be the only ones generating and paying taxes.

Also with less income for people to live on there's going to be less customers for automated businesses. So I imagine GDP is going to take a dive and in turn the government will (gasp) have less income to function on.

Really I see it as a ripple effect. China has billions of people to feed and as automation grows and grows every country not living off the land will suffer.



Personally I think that's really irresponsible to farm data like that to foreign countries, but I know no one thinks (or cares) long term or the actual costs of doing business when you have to do something with those inevitable data breaches.

Well someone will have to check the data being scanned, right?

I wonder if what's happening to you is regional? Locally here some banks have doubled their work force and increased branches. Though their tellers are like revolving doors, here today, gone tomorrow.
Well this isn't going to be easy to implement all, especially for a Nation such the the United States.
 
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Scarpozzi

Lifer
Jun 13, 2000
26,389
1,778
126
Luckily, I work in a place where we're moving very slow to automation and I'm the one writing the automation jobs. Having said that, we're still struggling to figure out what and how to automate things and it'll be a number of years before we get there. I'm hoping I can get another 15 years in for the sake of retirement savings and other benefits that would help my family. (If I can put up with stuff that long)
 

Fritzo

Lifer
Jan 3, 2001
41,910
2,141
126
Don't worry I'm sure trickle down economics will work fine for us. :p

Seriously though I have a feeling things are about to get pretty bad in the next few decades. Throw in climate change to the mix displacing millions of people, and lack of jobs, and people are going to be fighting for food rations.

Everyone is going nuts over that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez...she's a new Democratic house member, and Fox News is having a fit because she suggested a 70% income tax. They never tell the whole story though:

-The 70% income tax is for income OVER $10 million
- We had 80-90% taxes in this level in the 1950's and '60s, considered the most prosperous time for the middle class
- Reaganomics in the 80's got rid of these taxes in favor of "trickle down economics"- wealth has been siphoned away from the middle class ever since

She's also getting hammered for socialism, but no pure form of economics is sustainable. The game Monopoly is 100% pure capitalism, and the winner is the person who gets all the money while everyone else goes bankrupt. This is what's happening now.

Until caps get put onto runaway wealth, we're all going to suffer. America in 100 years could look like a sci-fi dystopia where 50 families control the resources and food for the other 300 million.
 
Nov 8, 2012
20,828
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Everyone is going nuts over that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez...she's a new Democratic house member, and Fox News is having a fit because she suggested a 70% income tax. They never tell the whole story though:

-The 70% income tax is for income OVER $10 million
- We had 80-90% taxes in this level in the 1950's and '60s, considered the most prosperous time for the middle class
- Reaganomics in the 80's got rid of these taxes in favor of "trickle down economics"- wealth has been siphoned away from the middle class ever since

She's also getting hammered for socialism, but no pure form of economics is sustainable. The game Monopoly is 100% pure capitalism, and the winner is the person who gets all the money while everyone else goes bankrupt. This is what's happening now.

Until caps get put onto runaway wealth, we're all going to suffer. America in 100 years could look like a sci-fi dystopia where 50 families control the resources and food for the other 300 million.
AOC gets dogged on because publicly she has made some of the dumbest statements of all time that have been proven false.

The 70% tax isnt the low hanging fruit everyone laughs at.
 

Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
68,459
12,613
126
www.anyf.ca
Heck I would be ok with taxing the rich at 33% just like the rest of us are taxed at. it would still be millions or even billions going into the economy. The problem is that they have so many loopholes that most of them don't end up paying their fair share of taxes. Also, the government has to stop wasting tax dollars on stupid crap... but that's a whole other story. We could make something like UBI work if it was managed right, but we all know the government sucks at managing things right. My fear with UBI as well is that it would be JUST enough so you can rent, and not own. That's a crap quality of life. Being able to own property should be a right.

Corporations should also be taxed accordingly and not allowed to use all the loopholes. What ever came of the Panama papers? Oh right, nothing.

I think the tax rates are more or less fine as is even for the rich, the problem is the enforcement. They rather go after middle class people who make tax mistakes, instead of going after rich people who cheat the system.
 

repoman0

Diamond Member
Jun 17, 2010
4,701
3,727
136
As an autonomous controls engineer ... I plan to automate my job away just in time for me to retire
 
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