Jamie Diamon says: An Economic Hurricane is on the Horizon.

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dainthomas

Lifer
Dec 7, 2004
14,572
3,401
136
High inflation, high gas prices, the war in Ukraine are going to contribute to a very severe economic downturn, and many Americans aren't going to be prepared. Its going to be interesting if we dip into a recession. How severe is it going to be? Will the average Joe and Jane be able to weather the downturn. Are people saving? How many people have at least a 6-month money cushion just in case if something tragic comes up. And what about the crypto bros? Will they go bust. As for me, I'm paying off all of my debt. I want as little debt weighing me down, just in case Jami is correct. And, what about Peter Schiff? Seems like he does nothing but fear monger. He was correct about the 2006-09 housing crash. Will he be correct about the next crash which he has said is going to be much worse. Will the economic hurricane turn into a tsunami? Only time will tell.


God created economists to make meteorologists look good.
 

Zorba

Lifer
Oct 22, 1999
14,452
9,837
136
No one is getting a second job to pay for their commute to their first job, who believes this shit?
I had a coworker that commuted daily from Tulsa to OKC (pre-covid) in an Audi something. Between the gas, tolls and car payment/maintenance, he decided to get a job at FedEx to help pay for it all (he is very bad with money in general). After one weekend, he quit, sold the Audi and bought an Altama.

So I'm sure it happens, but it's due to other poor decisions.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
83,717
47,406
136
I had a coworker that commuted daily from Tulsa to OKC (pre-covid) in an Audi something. Between the gas, tolls and car payment/maintenance, he decided to get a job at FedEx to help pay for it all (he is very bad with money in general). After one weekend, he quit, sold the Audi and bought an Altama.

So I'm sure it happens, but it's due to other poor decisions.
I remember someone in my shop in the navy lived in Temecula to save money but would then drive an hour each way in some bigass SUV every day. He did not seem to realize that once he factored in gas he was not actually saving money.
 

Fenixgoon

Lifer
Jun 30, 2003
31,493
9,824
136
I remember someone in my shop in the navy lived in Temecula to save money but would then drive an hour each way in some bigass SUV every day. He did not seem to realize that once he factored in gas he was not actually saving money.
americans in a nutshell

i will never forget meeting a man who was proud he put a giant-ass fuel tank in his vehicle by ripping out the back seat. he exclaimed he could go like..800 miles per tank!

except the added fuel weight probably exceeded the weight of the rear seats, meaning he was actually reducing his fuel economy, thus COSTING him money.
 

Leeea

Diamond Member
Apr 3, 2020
3,599
5,340
106
Do you get raises based on inflation? Cuz I sure don't.

Yes. My income is commission based.

Most people do. If you do not, start looking for another job in the same profession with a different company. Everyone is hiring, and it is an employee's market right now.

In the past year I have given on average my employees a 32% raise.
My landscape contractor raised their price by exactly 33%.
I have also increase how much I charge per night by an average of 33%. (I manage a resort)


Part of it was I drove past a sign on the side of the road offering $20 an hour for fresh hires with no experience. Everyone I wanted to keep received a compelling reason to keep working for me in their next paystub. The senior staff were already over that per hour, but I gave them raises anyway just to make sure I retained them.

If you have not received a raise yet, your employer does not want you.

If everyone in your area has not received a raise, move to a blue state.
 
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[DHT]Osiris

Lifer
Dec 15, 2015
14,006
12,075
146
Yes.

Most people do. If you do not, start looking for another job in the same profession with a different company. Everyone is hiring, and it is an employee's market right now.

In the past year I have given on average my employees a 32% raise.
My landscape contractor raised their price by exactly 33%.
I have also increase how much I charge per night by an average of 33%. (I manage a resort)


Part of it was I drove past a sign on the side of the road offering $20 an hour for fresh hires with no experience. Everyone I wanted to keep received a compelling reason to keep working for me in their next paystub. The senior staff were already over that per hour, but I still gave them raises.

If you have not received a raise yet, your employer does not want you.

If everyone in your area has not received a raise, move to a blue state.
I've gotten a raise, just not one that made up for inflation. It's great that you're offering such substantial pay raises, but most are not doing that. Most are sticking to the 3-5% raises, with some variation, unless they're bleeding personnel that they give a shit about. I've contemplated migrating, but I'm near the cap for my job in this area, and while I'm mostly fully remote right now, not sure how cozy I am with jumping ship to some other remote work at this point in time (for other reasons).

Just know, an ~8% raise isn't normal in this environment, much less a 32%.
 
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evident

Lifer
Apr 5, 2005
11,894
496
126
I remember someone in my shop in the navy lived in Temecula to save money but would then drive an hour each way in some bigass SUV every day. He did not seem to realize that once he factored in gas he was not actually saving money.

I dunno what it is about Navy, but I know and work with enlisted Navy - PO1 or PO2 that all have insane cars, and they trade them every 2 years. V8 Mustangs, BMW 340i's, etc... I work with a retired chief that gets a new truck every year. he makes decent money at least but not good enough to trade every year and save anything.... boggles my mind.
 
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sportage

Lifer
Feb 1, 2008
11,493
3,159
136
I don't know about gas prices, but that sure hasn't detered people from driving. Going by the amount of cars on the roads one would think they were giving gas away for free.
But lets face it, the world believes Americans are chumps. We are charged far more for everything than other countries. The world has this perception that Americans can afford anything and thus will pay whatever the price.
Hell... of all the greed targeted at Americans, American greed is the worst. American greed, American against American, is far worse than that imposed from foreign countries.

Sure our gas prices are outrageous. Why? Because we will pay it. The oil companies know this, our legislators know this, everyone knows this.
So for some filthy rich CEO to predict financial disaster, why not? Americans will be hit from all sides financially, and they know Americans will take that hit. Then, they can hit us some more, and then more again.

Want to know what gas is selling for over in Russia? It comes to two American dollars per one American gallon. Yes, 2 dollars a gallon in the Soviet Union. Why? Because the world knows better to pull this shit on the Russian people that they can get away with pulling on the American people. But like I say, Americans are easy pickings especially for American corporations.
 

Leeea

Diamond Member
Apr 3, 2020
3,599
5,340
106
Just know, an ~8% raise isn't normal in this environment, much less a 32%.
Covid-19 murdered H-2B*.

H-2B is a low skilled temporary labor job import program. Many properties would import labor from overseas for the summer, and then send them back in the fall.

Larger properties ran straight into a wall when H-2B died. They are remained open, but are operating at fractional capacity. H-2B is back now, but it does not feel like it.


The remaining amount of labor in the local area suddenly became much more valuable. Perhaps it is not normal, but we are getting lots of immigration and face simultaneous housing and labor shortage. I have to imagine we are driving up wages in all the areas near us.


*H-2B is used all over the place, not just my area. It was an easy way to import cheap labor.
Like I said, the program is back on, but "temporary" labor from overseas workers are not there in quantities employers in my area are used to. The government claims to be importing more then ever, but as far as I can tell they are not available in my area.
 
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Thump553

Lifer
Jun 2, 2000
12,651
2,395
126
Covid-19 murdered H-2B*.

H-2B is a low skilled temporary labor job import program. Many properties would import labor from overseas for the summer, and then send them back in the fall.

Larger properties ran straight into a wall when H-2B died. They are remained open, but are operating at fractional capacity. H-2B is back now, but it does not feel like it.


The remaining amount of labor in the local area suddenly became much more valuable. Perhaps it is not normal, but we are getting lots of immigration and face simultaneous housing and labor shortage. I have to imagine we are driving up wages in all the areas near us.


*H-2B is used all over the place, not just my area. It was an easy way to import cheap labor.
Like I said, the program is back on, but "temporary" labor from overseas workers are not there in quantities employers in my area are used to. The government claims to be importing more then ever, but as far as I can tell they are not available in my area.

Personally I was (am still am) deeply offended by the use of H-2B for such things as resorts and amusement parks. Those places can and SHOULD use locals and college kids on summer vacation. There is an amusement park nearby. When it was independent it was known as Riverside and hired locals and college kids. It's now part of the Great America chain and it mostly staffed by foreigners on the H2-B program.

H2-B is an excellent example of government support of corporate exploitation. If MAGA hats had any sense they would fight these programs instead of their stupid border wars-instead they back Trump who exploits these programs relentlessly in his businesses to his personal great profit.
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,512
29,099
146
And how many people drive fuel inefficient vehicles an hour each way?

Don't get me wrong, high gas prices do hurt middle/lower classes more, but some of it is because of lifestyle choices that are now biting them in the ass.

Of course, that's easy to say when the price of gas is essentially irrelevant to me.

Edit: ninja'd by mere seconds!

I'd rather see consumer gasoline prices go up another ~70% or so, but use that + further subsidies to pay for cheaper commercial/fleet fuel for drivers and such.
 
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Zorba

Lifer
Oct 22, 1999
14,452
9,837
136
I'd rather see consumer gasoline prices go up another ~70% or so, but use that + further subsidies to pay for cheaper commercial/fleet fuel for drivers and such.
Maybe the high gas prices will actually make commercial users more efficient. Heavy vehicles are already massively subsidized, they don't need more. They need incentive to upgrade their fleets and their operations.
 
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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
83,717
47,406
136
I dunno what it is about Navy, but I know and work with enlisted Navy - PO1 or PO2 that all have insane cars, and they trade them every 2 years. V8 Mustangs, BMW 340i's, etc... I work with a retired chief that gets a new truck every year. he makes decent money at least but not good enough to trade every year and save anything.... boggles my mind.
Haha, we always used to say that nobody drives a nicer car than an E-1. It’s because they never had any money before.
 
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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
45,896
32,696
136
Every third person I talk to complains about fuel prices even though they are running errands in 15mpg vehicles. "The Economy" is bad because everybody went out and bought the absolutely most inefficient land barge they could find during a short term cheap gas era which surely would not end for any reason. I've seen this movie before a few times.
 
Dec 10, 2005
23,990
6,793
136
Every third person I talk to complains about fuel prices even though they are running errands in 15mpg vehicles. "The Economy" is bad because everybody went out and bought the absolutely most inefficient land barge they could find during a short term cheap gas era which surely would not end for any reason. I've seen this movie before a few times.
Yeah, but how are you going to move the boat you don't own or buy a refrigerator every week from Home Depot with your fuel efficient vehicle? That's right, you won't. Checkmate libs.
 

gothuevos

Golden Member
Jul 28, 2010
1,858
1,624
136
Yes and it's the perfect storm (no pun intended) for an authoritarian strongman to take over. I'm already hearing in casual conversations with fairly politically moderate people (who are already well off) about how "someone, anyone needs to get this economic situation under control!". If they feel this way, imagine what poor people are actually thinking.

And in true authoritarian fashion, they will promise anything but fix nothing. But by then they've installed permanent rule so it doesn't matter anyway. GG.
 
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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
45,896
32,696
136
Yes and it's the perfect storm (no pun intended) for an authoritarian strongman to take over. I'm already hearing in casual conversations with fairly politically moderate people (who are already well off) about how "someone, anyone needs to get this economic situation under control!". If they feel this way, imagine what poor people are actually thinking.

And in true authoritarian fashion, they will promise anything but fix nothing. But by then they've installed permanent rule so it doesn't matter anyway. GG.

Republican plans to "fix" this amount to nothing and they are not even pretending otherwise. We're going to get three million hearings on Hunter's laptop, a couple impeachments, and the same old attempts to collapse popular social programs which might be successful. This country is brain dead politically.
 

Zorba

Lifer
Oct 22, 1999
14,452
9,837
136
Every third person I talk to complains about fuel prices even though they are running errands in 15mpg vehicles. "The Economy" is bad because everybody went out and bought the absolutely most inefficient land barge they could find during a short term cheap gas era which surely would not end for any reason. I've seen this movie before a few times.
Luckily school is out now. But I would see them everyday on my neighborhood run, sitting by the school, idling their engines for 30 minutes, even on perfect weather days. Don't bitch about gas prices if you can afford to idle your V8 for thirty minutes when it's 72 degrees outside.
 
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hal2kilo

Lifer
Feb 24, 2009
23,331
10,238
136
Having devoted a decade of my life under this guy I can say he's not an idiot. The middle class and below are getting crushed under gasoline prices alone.

Some examples: compared to a couple years ago, I know people who have gotten second jobs just to pay for gasoline to get to their usual job. I know others who have done things like bicycle to work and leaving their automobiles parked. They're all trying to do what they can and we haven't even reached the apex of this shitshow.

While I'm fine I do have friends and family of many walks of life. I've planted a garden for the first time in forever simply due to being disgusted by the prices at the grocery store -- don't really need to, it's a principles thing for me. The fact is that I did where I wasn't compelled before. I'm a barometer of fuckary, if you find me gardening then something is awry.

While I'm unsure how bad things are going to get, they're currently bad and getting worse per day.

But it's not all bad for everyone, if you're an investor. I'm diverting more and more disposable income into the market as it drops.
Hope you don't catch the knife.
 

hal2kilo

Lifer
Feb 24, 2009
23,331
10,238
136
God created economists to make meteorologists look good.
Never seen a group of people like money people who think they can predict the future. I remember them telling me that Russia was going to invade Ukraine 6 months before it happened. You remember that right?
 

Mai72

Lifer
Sep 12, 2012
11,578
1,741
126
I had a coworker that commuted daily from Tulsa to OKC (pre-covid) in an Audi something. Between the gas, tolls and car payment/maintenance, he decided to get a job at FedEx to help pay for it all (he is very bad with money in general). After one weekend, he quit, sold the Audi and bought an Altama.

So I'm sure it happens, but it's due to other poor decisions.

Yea, I can't tell you how many people I've talked to about high gas prices, and they always blame Biden. But, the truth is many are driving these HUGE vehicles that are a) very expensive b) get horrible gas mileage. IMO, instead of blaming Biden, the economy, Russia, or the gas company CEOs which we have no control over, we should adapt to the changing economic landscape. Sell that new vehicle if it is that much of an issue, downgrade, and purchase a vehicle that is affordable. The truth is most people are looking for validation from strangers so they can put on this front that they are successful, so we drive cars that are way out of our league. But, the actual truth is most people don't care, because everyone is so self absorbed with their own thoughts. Also, who cares? I'd rather have the piece of mind that I can save and invest than have a new car that I can't afford. Big Hat, No Cattle. They look like they have money, but if we were to take a peak into their bank accout, we'd see that many are broke, and have little to no investments.
 
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Zorba

Lifer
Oct 22, 1999
14,452
9,837
136
Yea, I can't tell you how many people I've talked to about high gas prices, and they always blame Biden. But, the truth is many are driving these HUGE vehicles that are a) very expensive b) get horrible gas mileage. IMO, instead of blaming Biden, the economy, Russia, or the gas company CEOs which we have no control over, we should adapt to the changing economic landscape. Sell that new vehicle if it is that much of an issue, downgrade, and purchase a vehicle that is affordable. The truth is most people are looking for validation from strangers so they can put on this front that they are successful, so we drive cars that are way out of our league. But, the actual truth is most people don't care, because everyone is so self absorbed with their own thoughts. Also, who cares? I'd rather have the pice of mind that I can save and invest than have a new car that I can't afford. Big Hat, No Cattle. They look like they have money, but if we were to take a peak into their bank accout, we'd see that many are broke, and have no investments.
Yeah. A lot of people in my neighborhood have single cars that cost more than every car my wife and I have ever owned combined (6 cars between us). Many are more expensive than all our cars and my Wave Runner combined. I've never understood way someone even wants a $90,000 car or truck. Especially a $90,000 truck that won't even fit in the garage so it sits out in the sun and hail.
 

Pens1566

Lifer
Oct 11, 2005
11,480
7,886
136
Yeah. A lot of people in my neighborhood have single cars that cost more than every car my wife and I have ever owned combined (6 cars between us). Many are more expensive than all our cars and my Wave Runner combined. I've never understood way someone even wants a $90,000 car or truck. Especially a $90,000 truck that won't even fit in the garage so it sits out in the sun and hail.

And then you show them gas prices in other countries are also high. Then ask them how that is also Biden's fault somehow.