It's the end of the world as we know it

[Queasy]

Link

Sandy Duncan, formerly vice president of Xbox Europe, claims consoles as we know them will die out within a decade.

?I think dedicated games devices will die [out] in the next 5 to 10 years. The business model is very risky and the costs associated with creating new hardware are incredibly high,? Duncan told That Videogame Blog.

"There is a definite convergence of other devices, such as set top boxes,? continued the man who now heads casual gaming business YoYo Games. ?There's hardly any technology difference between some hard disc video recorders and an Xbox 360, for example.

"In fact in 5 to 10 years I don't think you'll have any box at all under your TV, most of this stuff will be virtualized as web services by your content provider."

Duncan?s views echo those of analyst Billy Pidgeon, who told Next-Gen earlier this week that traditional videogame consoles may play no part in the next platform cycle.

?I think it will be very hard for consoles to compete with PCs in five years, or for dedicated handhelds to compete with smartphones,? he said.

??The platforms of the next cycle may not be a console at all, but software distributed by network to convergent devices like PCs, set top boxes and smart phones.?

So we've gone from consoles not needing discs anymore to not needing consoles anymore? And what is a set top box other than a console?

Considering it still takes about 5 minutes for my DirecTV receiver to boot up, I don't see a set top box capable of running anything more than the most casual of games in 5 - 10 years. Consoles will still have their place for the Halos and the MGS and the COD4s and the Ratchet and Clanks and the Marios and the Gran Turismos and the Forzas and the Grand Theft Autos.

 

[techwanabe]

I would be surprised if what he envisions comes true. Things may shift, perhaps the market shake down and go to one or two consoles vs three. I don't see them disappearing myself. The crystal ball is a cloudy device thats hard to see.

 

[Abel007]

Love the R.E.M. reference. Hate the idea that consoles will be dead.

 

[mugs]

?I think dedicated games devices will die [out] in the next 5 to 10 years. The business model is very risky and the costs associated with creating new hardware are incredibly high,? Duncan told That Videogame Blog.

Yeah, especially when you have to replace every damn one of them because they all break.

I think consoles will continue to incorporate features of other devices, such as IPTV and DVR capability (already exists for the 360, but unreleased) and streaming video from the Internet (looks like it's coming from NetFlix on the 360 and PS3). I don't think consoles "as we know them" will go away, they will just become more functional. If he thinks competition from PC gaming is going to take down console gaming, he obviously doesn't understand why we game on consoles. And who can honestly say they'd rather play a video game on a cell phone than on a dedicated hand held game system?

 

[arredondo]

Nonesense. M$ has been in two of the seven or eight console generations and all of a sudden know what the future holds? Their first system bled $billions$ from them for each unit sold (and it still sold relatively poorly), and the new one they made broke down for 33%+ of the first unlucky 10 million who bought them. No offense, but M$ is the LAST company that can be looked upon to make prediction trends in the market.

No doubt they are trying to engineer this "convergence" themselves the way they only know how to when sheer talent alone doesn't work: throw a bunch of money at it. Until we see photo-realistic stereoscopic 3D games at 120 fps, there will always be a market for a dedicated console market.

 

[randay]

Guess someone forgot to tell this to Nintendo 20 years ago.

 

[Queasy]

Originally posted by: arredondo
Nonesense. M$ has been in two of the seven or eight console generations and all of a sudden know what the future holds?

This is a former MS employee. He's not speaking for MS. You can bet that MS doesn't want him speaking for them either because they're very much pushing for living room space.

 

[Xavier434]

I know one thing. Until I can witness all of my TV programs being displayed in at least 1080p quality with zero bandwidth or signal issues, this guy doesn't have a chance at convincing me that the console industry will be replaced by something that is 100% digital within 10 years time.

 

[R Nilla]

Originally posted by: mugs

?I think dedicated games devices will die [out] in the next 5 to 10 years. The business model is very risky and the costs associated with creating new hardware are incredibly high,? Duncan told That Videogame Blog.

Yeah, especially when you have to replace every damn one of them because they all break.

I think consoles will continue to incorporate features of other devices, such as IPTV and DVR capability (already exists for the 360, but unreleased) and streaming video from the Internet (looks like it's coming from NetFlix on the 360 and PS3). I don't think consoles "as we know them" will go away, they will just become more functional. If he thinks competition from PC gaming is going to take down console gaming, he obviously doesn't understand why we game on consoles. And who can honestly say they'd rather play a video game on a cell phone than on a dedicated hand held game system?

Good luck getting someone to pay $800 for an all-in-one device when all they want is a DVR.

I'm with mugs in that I think consoles will continue to exist but with more integration of other devices. The console and STB are two completely different entertainment devices whose users are not, and never will be, fully mutually inclusive. There are clearly different people with different needs, and so many different companies around to offer their own various proprietary products.

I think there will always be people who want a master of one for some things (as opposed to jack of all trades, master of none). I don't see camera phones threatening the DSLR market anytime soon.

 

[MmmSkyscraper]

When do I get my flying car?

 

[Dacalo]

It won't matter for PS4 because it will have no games lulz.

 

[Xavier434]

Originally posted by: R Nilla

Originally posted by: mugs

?I think dedicated games devices will die [out] in the next 5 to 10 years. The business model is very risky and the costs associated with creating new hardware are incredibly high,? Duncan told That Videogame Blog.

Yeah, especially when you have to replace every damn one of them because they all break.

I think consoles will continue to incorporate features of other devices, such as IPTV and DVR capability (already exists for the 360, but unreleased) and streaming video from the Internet (looks like it's coming from NetFlix on the 360 and PS3). I don't think consoles "as we know them" will go away, they will just become more functional. If he thinks competition from PC gaming is going to take down console gaming, he obviously doesn't understand why we game on consoles. And who can honestly say they'd rather play a video game on a cell phone than on a dedicated hand held game system?

Good luck getting someone to pay $800 for an all-in-one device when all they want is a DVR.

I'm with mugs in that I think consoles will continue to exist but with more integration of other devices. The console and STB are two completely different entertainment devices whose users are not, and never will be, fully mutually inclusive. There are clearly different people with different needs, and so many different companies around to offer their own various proprietary products.

I think there will always be people who want a master of one for some things (as opposed to jack of all trades, master of none). I don't see camera phones threatening the DSLR market anytime soon.

Not to mention that combining all of these technologies means we need to rely on our TV's to come equipped with hardware and firmware which universally supports just about anything new that the industry wants to integrate as a "service". As it stands, we can't even get our computers to be that reliable.

I believe that the more realistic future will be that people will need to find ways to reduce expenses in the console industry.....just like any other industry that becomes successful. Who would have thought!?

 

[Queasy]

Originally posted by: Xavier434
I believe that the more realistic future will be that people will need to find ways to reduce expenses in the console industry.....just like any other industry that becomes successful. Who would have thought!?

Yep, there was another article earlier this week speculating that we've possibly seen the end of the bleeding edge consoles because of the Wii - PS4 = PS3.5 and Xbox 720 = Xbox 540.

I guess speculations are now joining the ranks of opinions and a**sholes. :laugh:

 

[Xavier434]

Originally posted by: Queasy

Originally posted by: Xavier434
I believe that the more realistic future will be that people will need to find ways to reduce expenses in the console industry.....just like any other industry that becomes successful. Who would have thought!?

Yep, there was another article earlier this week speculating that we've possibly seen the end of the bleeding edge consoles because of the Wii - PS4 = PS3.5 and Xbox 720 = Xbox 540.

I guess speculations are now joining the ranks of opinions and a**sholes. :laugh:

Honestly, I think the best thing the console industry could do for themselves is act as a single unit by agreeing to not rely on these lightening fast releases of new and better consoles in order to compete with each other. While some may not consider the amount of time between the XBOX and 360 to be lightening fast, the profit margins suggest otherwise and they will continue to suggest otherwise until the all 3 of these competitors decide to force the consumer market to have a longer attachment rate. The same pretty much goes for Sony. That may not hold quite as true when considering the PS2 but I feel that the PS3 marks the beginning of that change for them. As long as great games are continued to be produced on the current consoles, I don't see an issue with this decision. It should help them a lot.

 

[mugs]

Originally posted by: Queasy

Originally posted by: Xavier434
I believe that the more realistic future will be that people will need to find ways to reduce expenses in the console industry.....just like any other industry that becomes successful. Who would have thought!?

Yep, there was another article earlier this week speculating that we've possibly seen the end of the bleeding edge consoles because of the Wii - PS4 = PS3.5 and Xbox 720 = Xbox 540.

I guess speculations are now joining the ranks of opinions and a**sholes. :laugh:

As much as I love my Wii, I think game selection and game sales show that the market for higher-end systems is still more than adequate.

 

[mugs]

Originally posted by: Dacalo
It won't matter for PS4 because it will have no games lulz.

Man, the PS3 fanboys just won't give this one up (I'm looking at you, randay and Inspector Jihad). Yeah, the PS3's game selection is adequate now. It DID suck for a long time after launch, and it STILL sucks compared to the 360's game selection. But lately how often have you heard anyone saying that the PS3 has no games? No one does. The only way you can say the PS3 has very few worthwhile game is if you already have a 360, because the PS3 still doesn't have a whole lot of worthwhile exclusives compared to the 360.

I'd expect these troll posts from randay and Inspector Jihad, they rarely contribute anything worthwhile here. You usually make better posts than this crap.

 

[Oyeve]

I just want to stick an optical cable in my head and virtually live GTA.

 

[Xavier434]

Originally posted by: Oyeve
I just want to stick an optical cable in my head and virtually live GTA.

I have had similar fantasies. Of course some of them involve Dead or Alive Beach Volleyball. :laugh:

 

[randay]

Originally posted by: mugs

Originally posted by: Dacalo
It won't matter for PS4 because it will have no games lulz.

Man, the PS3 fanboys just won't give this one up (I'm looking at you, randay and Inspector Jihad). Yeah, the PS3's game selection is adequate now. It DID suck for a long time after launch, and it STILL sucks compared to the 360's game selection. But lately how often have you heard anyone saying that the PS3 has no games? No one does. The only way you can say the PS3 has very few worthwhile game is if you already have a 360, because the PS3 still doesn't have a whole lot of worthwhile exclusives compared to the 360.

I'd expect these troll posts from randay and Inspector Jihad, they rarely contribute anything worthwhile here. You usually make better posts than this crap.

whos trolling who? my, what a tall horse you ride sir.

 

[mugs]

Originally posted by: randay

Originally posted by: mugs

Originally posted by: Dacalo
It won't matter for PS4 because it will have no games lulz.

Man, the PS3 fanboys just won't give this one up (I'm looking at you, randay and Inspector Jihad). Yeah, the PS3's game selection is adequate now. It DID suck for a long time after launch, and it STILL sucks compared to the 360's game selection. But lately how often have you heard anyone saying that the PS3 has no games? No one does. The only way you can say the PS3 has very few worthwhile game is if you already have a 360, because the PS3 still doesn't have a whole lot of worthwhile exclusives compared to the 360.

I'd expect these troll posts from randay and Inspector Jihad, they rarely contribute anything worthwhile here. You usually make better posts than this crap.

whos trolling who? my, what a tall horse you ride sir.

Sorry to hurt your feelings, I'm just calling a spade a spade.

 

[AstroManLuca]

Originally posted by: arredondo
Their first system bled $billions$ from them for each unit sold

I chuckled a bit when I read this.

Nothing against you, and I pretty much agree with what you said, it's just the thought of a console costing billions of dollars *per unit*.

 

[mugs]

Originally posted by: AstroManLuca

Originally posted by: arredondo
Their first system bled $billions$ from them for each unit sold

I chuckled a bit when I read this.

Nothing against you, and I pretty much agree with what you said, it's just the thought of a console costing billions of dollars *per unit*.

:laugh: Didn't even notice that.

 

[randay]

Originally posted by: mugs

Originally posted by: randay

Originally posted by: mugs

Originally posted by: Dacalo
It won't matter for PS4 because it will have no games lulz.

Man, the PS3 fanboys just won't give this one up (I'm looking at you, randay and Inspector Jihad). Yeah, the PS3's game selection is adequate now. It DID suck for a long time after launch, and it STILL sucks compared to the 360's game selection. But lately how often have you heard anyone saying that the PS3 has no games? No one does. The only way you can say the PS3 has very few worthwhile game is if you already have a 360, because the PS3 still doesn't have a whole lot of worthwhile exclusives compared to the 360.

I'd expect these troll posts from randay and Inspector Jihad, they rarely contribute anything worthwhile here. You usually make better posts than this crap.

whos trolling who? my, what a tall horse you ride sir.

Sorry to hurt your feelings, I'm just calling a spade a spade.

Apology accepted, just dont let me catch you doing it ever again.

 

[Golgatha]

I don't personally see the actual console hardware going anywhere. What I could imagine in 10years is a console without any optical drive in it. I think we're set to see a Steam (Valve's DRM software for the PC) like product on the console front, and the death of physical media for the console.

Think of it as say 1TB of storage (not far fetched at all in 10years for a console) in a black box. You choose which games you want to "buy" and it downloads and decrypts it. Your purchase is then DRM locked to that particular console and/or your user account. Console makers have long wanted to get rid of the secondary sales market (bye bye EB Games, etc.) and 3rd party hack software running on their (yes it's theirs, even though you paid for it and think it's yours) console.

 

[Golgatha]

Originally posted by: randay
Guess someone forgot to tell this to Nintendo 20 years ago.

Guest someone forgot to tell you that it's not 1988 with 256 color VGA graphics being all the rage and most of the country without dial-up connections. Forget about broadband. That's several years down the road and several more before it's affordable enough for the average Jane and Joe's of the world.