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It's the economy Stupid. Trump should win re-election based on previous results if he stays on msg. Lol @ Trump staying on msg

JEDI

Lifer
Sep 25, 2001
26,474
949
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http://m.cnn.com/en/article/h_bb835974f9b7b777982471f3211019c4
"Stock Markets Up Record Numbers. For this year alone, Dow up 18.65%, S&P up 24.36%, Nasdaq Composite up 29.17%."

it's been proven right over and over again that Incumbent presidents don't lose often when the econ is strong if they stayed on msg to voters.

but Trump is uniquely incapable of staying on message. If he was relentless in his focus on the state of the economy between now and next November, he would undoubtedly make it more likely he wins a second term.
But Trump has demonstrated -- throughout his presidency and his life -- that he lacks the attention span and/or discipline to stay on any message at all.


yeah for the Pres having the attention span of a gnat.
lets flush our toilets 20times in salute to him! (google that if you don't know what im talking about)
 

Blackjack200

Lifer
May 28, 2007
15,991
1,656
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She wasn't an incumbent, but in 2016 Clinton's campaign focused a lot of attention on the improvement in top level economic indicators during the Obama administration. The problem is that those indicators don't capture the rising frustration many people have with the economy. If you run on a message of "everything is great", then people who are not doing well will have no reason to believe that you'll change anything.
 
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K1052

Lifer
Aug 21, 2003
35,197
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She wasn't an incumbent, but in 2016 Clinton's campaign focused a lot of attention on the improvement in top level economic indicators during the Obama administration. The problem is that those indicators don't capture the rising frustration many people have with the economy. If you run on a message of "everything is great", then people who are not doing well will have no reason to believe that you'll change anything.
Well it's a good thing Trump didn't promise people a shitload of stuff that he hasn't remotely tried to deliver on. That would be awkward for the general election.

After all we've got amazing healthcare, affordable education, cheaper prescription drugs, 6% GDP growth, a trillion dollar infrastructure plan, and a falling national debt lol.
 

Blackjack200

Lifer
May 28, 2007
15,991
1,656
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Well it's a good thing Trump didn't promise people a shitload of stuff that he hasn't remotely tried to deliver on. That would be awkward for the general election.

After all we've got amazing healthcare, affordable education, cheaper prescription drugs, 6% GDP growth, a trillion dollar infrastructure plan, and a falling national debt lol.
He will blame it all on the Democrats. I don't know if Clinton would have won on "no, things aren't great, blame the Republicans that have obstructed our agenda" but it would have been a very different campaign.
 

K1052

Lifer
Aug 21, 2003
35,197
8,520
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He will blame it all on the Democrats. I don't know if Clinton would have won on "no, things aren't great, blame the Republicans that have obstructed our agenda" but it would have been a very different campaign.
Of course he's going to try but his credibility gap has done nothing but widen in the past three years. And on some things there's going to be no escape like the ACA repeal attempt which everybody pretty clearly remembers him trying.
 

Fenixgoon

Lifer
Jun 30, 2003
27,126
1,902
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A coworker (re)posted a picture on facebook about how economic indicators were terrible under Obama (GDP, unemployment, etc.) but great under Trump. Of course the numbers were cherry picked to make Trump look good - Obama came in during the worst economic recession since the Great Depression and then delivered growth and reduction in unemployment for his last 6 years, handing Trump a solid economy.
But Trumpets probably won't think about that. I really wanted to explain all this, but at the same time I really don't want to get into a politics on facebook. I just want to see puppy pictures.
 
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Commodus

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 2004
7,881
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In this sense, moving forward with impeachment is a smart strategy on the Democrats' part. (it's also a moral imperative that all good people support, but bear with me here.) Trump's economy figures are actually fairly mediocre, but it'll be hard for him to embellish those numbers in debates when the cloud of impeachment hangs over him. Add his many, many other problems and the Dems might keep him on the back foot. That is, if they play their cards well.
 

soundforbjt

Lifer
Feb 15, 2002
15,879
3,462
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That's the thing that Trump is the master of...guiding the narrative. He can post some outlandish tweet, make a ridiculous comment, etc and steal all the air out of the news or an opponents points.
 
Mar 11, 2004
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That's the thing that Trump is the master of...guiding the narrative. He can post some outlandish tweet, make a ridiculous comment, etc and steal all the air out of the news or an opponents points.
The thing is, its basically never for a good reason though, but sadly him constantly making a complete fool of himself seems to be the desired outcome for at least like 50% of the population. We need to get people out of this "government sucks, so let's hope for a bumbling dumbass so we can at least laugh about it" mentality that Americans have ingrained in them. Hell, lots of people seem to like Bush Jr explicitly because of that, ignoring all the horrible shit he let the evil motherfuckers like Cheney and Rove perpetrate under his administration.

It blows my mind how often I hear people say that politicians are crooks, but then when there's an effort to try to hold possibly the worst crook ever to sit in the White House even somewhat accountable, that those same people call it a waste of time and money. Americans are just completely fucked in the heads.
 
Nov 25, 2013
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That's the thing that Trump is the master of...guiding the narrative. He can post some outlandish tweet, make a ridiculous comment, etc and steal all the air out of the news or an opponents points.
And he knows exactly what he's doing when he pulls that shit off. And yet folks continue to call him stupid. He may be ignorant as the day is long but I certainly would never classify him as stupid.
 
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BonzaiDuck

Lifer
Jun 30, 2004
14,528
940
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How does a president assure a golden-age economic boom?

Perhaps he can bring various parts of the corporate sector together, to work in conjunct with government to increase employment in certain areas. But Trump hasn't done that.

He can manage the economy according to the best macro-economic understanding available. But -- Trump has no such people to provide that understanding. Larry Kudlow? Sorry, but past administrations made sure to get input from Nobel Laureates. Trump has none. And there's no believable policy. He promised to "reduce the deficit. He's ballooned the deficit.

He could increase government employment! But there's likely not the drastic need for something like that, and he has -- instead -- discouraged government employment by demoralizing the federal service.

Perhaps if investors and the Lords of Wall Street merely "had confidence" in this president, then perhaps he could positively affect the economy. But does anyone of any substance or understanding "have confidence" in this president? How about agri-business? Do they have "confidence"?

The truth, however, is simple. With or without sound fiscal and monetary management, economies go through sine-wave boom and bust periods of expansion and recession -- based mostly on "rational expectations" of all elements in the economy. And the real presidential expertise will show itself when the downturns portend to be severe -- for instance, in the cooperation between Bush and Obama after the economy began to tank in 2007.

How do you think Trump will handle a recession? Because there is definitely one coming. Economists and bankers have been talking about it for a couple years now, and it's only a matter of "when". Trump hopes to get re-elected before it occurs, but I don't think he has the presence of mind to understand that it will occur.

And if all people think or care about is their personal, private material well-being as an indicator of who to vote for, that's vacant, too. Look at the burgeoning homeless crisis. How many homeless people vote? How many are even able to vote -- not having an address? If the DOW is climbing and the rate of homelessness is climbing, well -- you see my point?

Nothing is being done. Trump and his Base -- citing a letter-to-editor in the Times today, for instance -- seem to think our only problems are infrastructure, illegal immigration, and prescription drugs. And they say that the Democrats and Congress are obstructing progress with their phony impeachment.

No. The Base has damaged us for electing a brigand and a criminal who doesn't know anything. And Trump has damaged us for being a brigand and a criminal -- requiring impeachment.

Simple as that.
 

sportage

Diamond Member
Feb 1, 2008
8,898
1,167
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I Wonder.....
HOW can we really believe the job figures that we hear?
Trump accused Obama of fudging the books and cooking the jobs figures.
How do we know?
Maybe Ukraine has a way to mess with our jobs data and all of the number are fake?

if you watch the papers you see rising numbers of personal bankruptcies. The local papers usually list the names. They are in the hundreds on a monthly basis.
And wages, Trump has done nothing what so ever on increasing wages. It was Obama that started the conversation of addressing and promoting the decent wage. Trump dropped the ball and has said nothing. Has done nothing. The only reason some entry level wages have risen is the result of Obama. And with Obama making those corporations feel guilty about the poor wages they paid, so in guilt companies like Walmart raised some wages. It was not Trump responsible, it was Obama.

The fear here is with people not paying attention or caring to pay attention. Then Trump and republicans can spin their lies and BS about the economy and how WONDERFUL everything is, and people will believe it. Believe it because at this point the people will believe anything. Especially the lies of Donald Trump.
 

ch33zw1z

Lifer
Nov 4, 2004
30,955
9,741
146
That's the thing that Trump is the master of...guiding the narrative. He can post some outlandish tweet, make a ridiculous comment, etc and steal all the air out of the news or an opponents points.
Knowing is half the battle, the other half is bullshit. Which political party caters to knowing? Not trumps
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
70,181
18,981
136
Why do people focus on the economy as an election predictor instead of say, his approval rating?

Although sample sizes are incredibly tiny I bet approval rating predicts electoral margins much better.
 

jmagg

Golden Member
Nov 21, 2001
1,617
169
106
Why do people focus on the economy as an election predictor instead of say, his approval rating?

Although sample sizes are incredibly tiny I bet approval rating predicts electoral margins much better.
People focus on their daily lives and how the economy effects them, not the boob tube constant contradictions.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
70,181
18,981
136
People focus on their daily lives and how the economy effects them, not the boob tube constant contradictions.
Right, and after focusing on their daily lives only about 41-42% of people approve of Trump.

Why is people staying their direct preference not a better indicator than some second order metric?
 
Feb 4, 2009
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Healthcare has been a large topic at each debate.
YEah but that’s pretty much it. Not so confident enough people are watching the debates because they are boring.
Should do what was done during the mid terms. Bring up up proposals and wait for the Rs to craft some crappy legislation
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
70,181
18,981
136
YEah but that’s pretty much it. Not so confident enough people are watching the debates because they are boring.
Should do what was done during the mid terms. Bring up up proposals and wait for the Rs to craft some crappy legislation
They have brought up tons of proposals!

Republicans won’t be crafting any legislation. They will just lie and say if elected they will make health care great this time, they promise.
 

ch33zw1z

Lifer
Nov 4, 2004
30,955
9,741
146
People focus on their daily lives and how the economy effects them, not the boob tube constant contradictions.
man, I want this to be true, but the last 20 years hasn't really proven that to me.
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
29,505
3,008
126
...but it'll be hard for him to embellish those numbers in debates when the cloud of impeachment hangs over him.
It'll be hard for Trump to embellish and lie? Eh?!?!?!
Maybe for people to believe it, but he is 100% certainly going to do it.
 

ch33zw1z

Lifer
Nov 4, 2004
30,955
9,741
146
It'll be hard for Trump to embellish and lie? Eh?!?!?!
Maybe for people to believe it, but he is 100% certainly going to do it.
Shit man, not even for people to believe it. He has 10,000+ lies while in office, and unwavering support from his base. They don't care, as long as the libtard tears flow. Lie, cheat, steal, commit treason, no prob, just let the spice flow.
 

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