It's Also the Economy, Stupid!

BOBDN

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May 21, 2002
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A $7.7 TRILLION turn around. Pretty impressive. Add to that Bush and Co. accomplished this feat of economic irresponsibility while simultaneously lying to invade Iraq. I wonder what they can accomplish in the next year (or until the impeachment).

Read all about it.
 

LunarRay

Diamond Member
Mar 2, 2003
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My doom and gloom view of economic theory indicates we are nearing the event horizon of a disinflation spiral that could (it is possible) get near the "great depression" disaster.... .. If you start to see prices drop across the board... with increasing unemployment (factor in folks who have used up their FUI without finding work) grab hold of something cuz if you fall into the black hole of deflation... you'll see depression that Zoloft will not control... But... Greenthumbspan... says alls fine for now... his greenthumb allows The bush to take over the garden vegetables.
 

Moonbeam

Elite Member
Nov 24, 1999
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I thought he made a remark about being able soon to see the Bush tax stimulous if it's going to work. I was wondering if it was his way of saying, we don't see it by xx/xx/xx and it ain't happening. I think he also thinks Bush is a weed.
 

LunarRay

Diamond Member
Mar 2, 2003
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Originally posted by: Moonbeam
I thought he made a remark about being able soon to see the Bush tax stimulous if it's going to work. I was wondering if it was his way of saying, we don't see it by xx/xx/xx and it ain't happening. I think he also thinks Bush is a weed.
His words are well chosen... and not really telling.... they never are..:) The Bush folks ought to listen to what he does not say... it is the most telling..

If no one did anything at all... nothing... the economy should increase of its own dynamics.... if you do some tweak and it gets misinterpreted by the humans it can have a negative effect... with all this war and anti Bush stuff.. we don't have the confidence of the human to spend and increase debt... etc.. this means we may have increased debt without the stimuli... not as bad as deflation.... deflation feeds on itself.. and at this point there is not a whole lot of monetary policy adjustments left... We NEED an attitude adjustment... or ... well... oh well....


edit to suggest a phonic sound..:)
 

BOBDN

Banned
May 21, 2002
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American consumers are buried in debt. The housing market is the only bright spot. Interest rates for home mortgages are climbing. Homeowners have cashed out most of the equity in their homes.

Where does the American consumer go next for spending cash?
 

LunarRay

Diamond Member
Mar 2, 2003
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I'd rather see folks thinking stuff was gonna get more expensive and buy now than the oposite... Inflation is OK.. Debt is OK.. I think another cut would be in order but.... offset by a spending cut... (Iraq comes to mind)...
 

BaliBabyDoc

Lifer
Jan 20, 2001
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I thought he made a remark about being able soon to see the Bush tax stimulous if it's going to work. I was wondering if it was his way of saying, we don't see it by xx/xx/xx and it ain't happening. I think he also thinks Bush is a weed.
Actually I thought Greenspan was giving collective credit for Fed rate cuts AND tax cuts in making the US economy resilient to the challenges of the past 30 months. Particularly, in response to Sarbanes . . . Greenspan essentially said things were bound to get better b/c the US economy has absorbed so many shocks and done so well thus far.
 

Hayabusa Rider

Admin Emeritus & Elite Member
Jan 26, 2000
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I think deflation is a real possibility. If that happens, it may become self fueling, like the stagflation from the Carter years. With the debt load Americans carry, I can't see how people arent going to get screwed in a major way. I think banks are going to have to hire extra help to process all the forclosures on homes. Not good.
 

LunarRay

Diamond Member
Mar 2, 2003
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"US Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan has given a repeat performance of his semi-annual testimony, this time to a Senate banking committee.

The Fed chairman has been upbeat on prospects for the American economy but has signalled that authorities remain alert to deflation.

However, he describes the "pernicious scenario" of negative inflation as "remote"."

greenspan not saying something directly indirectly means something:)
 

BaliBabyDoc

Lifer
Jan 20, 2001
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Despite the best wishes of my chosen profession, many of my close associates are lawyers. In one family the father and all three children are lawyers . . . mother makes the world go round. The two boys work for the old man. Every month they pick up a check to cover their bankruptcy clients . . . last year it was 20K . . . this year it's approaching 30K with no end in sight. The old man is getting a new Caddy soon . . .

I'm a physician and my wife teaches but people with normal jobs are really taking it on the chin.
 

LunarRay

Diamond Member
Mar 2, 2003
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The first thing folks do without is the physician... the last is the cigarettes.. everyone knows all they need to know but don't know it... and me stuck here listening to the surf pound the cliff base knowing someday soon I'll have ocean front property but be too old to sell it.. let alone enjoy it... So ..... I guess I'll go up to Starbuck's and listen to the usetabe rich folks lament and worry about next months mortgage payment.... Oh my..... life is interesting .... to an observer... hard as heck to the liver... or should that be on the liver??
 

Moonbeam

Elite Member
Nov 24, 1999
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I never worry because my family are all communalists and Il Capo Di Tutti Capi is my bud.
 

LunarRay

Diamond Member
Mar 2, 2003
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Originally posted by: Moonbeam
I never worry because my family are all communalists and Il Capo Di Tutti Capi is my bud.

Boss of all Bosses is your Bud.... You know her too? :)

I forgot to ask which commune are you an ist of?? Never mind ... I'll just ask Mom...
 

Moonbeam

Elite Member
Nov 24, 1999
69,657
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Originally posted by: LunarRay
Originally posted by: Moonbeam
I never worry because my family are all communalists and Il Capo Di Tutti Capi is my bud.

Boss of all Bosses is your Bud.... You know her too? :)

I forgot to ask which commune are you an ist of?? Never mind ... I'll just ask Mom...
You know what Mom says, "Does spaghetti stick to the wall!"


 

BarneyFife

Diamond Member
Aug 12, 2001
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Originally posted by: BOBDN
American consumers are buried in debt. The housing market is the only bright spot. Interest rates for home mortgages are climbing. Homeowners have cashed out most of the equity in their homes.

Where does the American consumer go next for spending cash?
Are you sure they are climbing? Interest rates at the bank for people that actually save their money are horrible. I'm making 1% (don't have much money), the stock market isn't climbing. It's been bouncing back and forth in the 9000 range for the past year. Getting a return on your money is nearly impossible unless you are willing to gamble. Maybe in my next life I'll be Dick Cheney and have a whole army to command for my fortune.

 

LunarRay

Diamond Member
Mar 2, 2003
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LT rates and ST rates operate on different stimuli.. sorta .. So do arms and fixed.. I think 15 yr fixed went up 25 basis points two weeks ago...
 

Brie

Member
May 27, 2003
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Originally posted by: BarneyFife
Originally posted by: BOBDN
American consumers are buried in debt. The housing market is the only bright spot. Interest rates for home mortgages are climbing. Homeowners have cashed out most of the equity in their homes.

Where does the American consumer go next for spending cash?
Are you sure they are climbing? Interest rates at the bank for people that actually save their money are horrible. I'm making 1% (don't have much money), the stock market isn't climbing. It's been bouncing back and forth in the 9000 range for the past year. Getting a return on your money is nearly impossible unless you are willing to gamble. Maybe in my next life I'll be Dick Cheney and have a whole army to command for my fortune.
Well dont put so much money in the bank. Put it in a money market AT LEAST to combat inflation. The stock market is climbing in some sectors. My shares of Dell went up about 30% in the past 6 months. All investing is a gamble...just follow the cycles of the market to make money.
 

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