I suspect that the gyros, and the control boards to which they report, would keep this little gizmo from acting like a super skateboard in a half-pipe. I would be very interested to see just what the behavioral characteristics would be. It uses gyros and "tilt sensors" (whatever those are). I think that the gyros don't like it to tilt very far. And remember that a gyro is not using gravity but, rather, angular momentum / inertia as its guide in the determination of attitude. If you succeeded in "looping" you'd probably cause the gyros to tumble, depending upon how sophisticated their design might be. That could be very ungood on a machine whose motive power is controlled by gyros.
Now this is just another reason for me to want one. I have to get my hands on one of these little buggers!
- Collin
Now this is just another reason for me to want one. I have to get my hands on one of these little buggers!
- Collin
I see some discussion about how the 'IT' could revolutionize transport. My question in regards to this product is how well it could be implemented in the sprawling metropolitan areas of the US which do not have solid mass transit infrastructures. I wonder if the price point of this product will keep all but the tech. entusiasts away. Does anyone know if any government body is talking tax breaks if you buy one of these???JDJ
I think the government might be involved in encouraging the use of devices like this from the standpoint of aiding municipalities in building safe infrastructure for their use. I'm not so certain about the blythe assertion by Kamen that the product can be used safely on sidewalks. Not on any of the New York sidewalks with which I'm familiar -- at least not at busy times of day. And in the street, well forget that -- as long as they have to share space with SUVs and trucks and cabs and stuff.
I don't think the individual will need much incentive to use it. We're talking about something that's easy to use and take care of and which would cost considerably less than daily use of public transportaion, and only a tiny fraction of the cost of owning and operating an automobile. I mean, look how many people drive cars into NYC every day. It costs as much to garage a car in NYC for a month as it does to rent an apartment for the same period of time in most parts of the U.S.! When you add fuel, maintenance and insurance the car would be far more expensive to own even if they GAVE it to you! The people who drive cars crosstown or uptown-downtown in the metro area are gonna eat these things up!
But for widespread use of this gadget to occur we'll have to see a confluence of quite a few different social factors. It may all come down to marketing, and just how much fun the things are to use. If they're a whole lot of fun and very reliable, and reasonably safe, people are going to want to use them. If those people who want to use them are numerous enough, and the kind of people who vote, we'll see these little suckers flying around everywhere. Just beware the dark side. The automakers and the oil companies, who have been a dominant force in American politics, will likely be looking for a way to turn the citizenry and the government against the gadget. No blow is too low for these guys. People like me who are old enough to remember what the country was like before the rubber, auto and oil industry lobby pushed Eisenhower into deserting the railroads in favor of the interstate highway system -- well, trust me on this -- big, established industry owns the government. Kamen and his ilk may make an end run around them, but it won't be easy. If he can generate the same sort of interest on the part of the public that the idea of driving that Chevy or Ford across the country on the interstate highway system did in the early fifties... At least this time around we'd be doing something that actually made sense and that was good (relatively) for the environment.
- Collin
I don't think the individual will need much incentive to use it. We're talking about something that's easy to use and take care of and which would cost considerably less than daily use of public transportaion, and only a tiny fraction of the cost of owning and operating an automobile. I mean, look how many people drive cars into NYC every day. It costs as much to garage a car in NYC for a month as it does to rent an apartment for the same period of time in most parts of the U.S.! When you add fuel, maintenance and insurance the car would be far more expensive to own even if they GAVE it to you! The people who drive cars crosstown or uptown-downtown in the metro area are gonna eat these things up!
But for widespread use of this gadget to occur we'll have to see a confluence of quite a few different social factors. It may all come down to marketing, and just how much fun the things are to use. If they're a whole lot of fun and very reliable, and reasonably safe, people are going to want to use them. If those people who want to use them are numerous enough, and the kind of people who vote, we'll see these little suckers flying around everywhere. Just beware the dark side. The automakers and the oil companies, who have been a dominant force in American politics, will likely be looking for a way to turn the citizenry and the government against the gadget. No blow is too low for these guys. People like me who are old enough to remember what the country was like before the rubber, auto and oil industry lobby pushed Eisenhower into deserting the railroads in favor of the interstate highway system -- well, trust me on this -- big, established industry owns the government. Kamen and his ilk may make an end run around them, but it won't be easy. If he can generate the same sort of interest on the part of the public that the idea of driving that Chevy or Ford across the country on the interstate highway system did in the early fifties... At least this time around we'd be doing something that actually made sense and that was good (relatively) for the environment.
- Collin
I think it will be many many years before these see widespread use in the US, if they ever do. Do you guys have any idea how long alternative methods of transportation have been around? The bike was invented in 1817, the motorcycle was invented by Daimler (of Daimler-Benz) in 1885, and the first production motorbike was put into US production in 1898, 10 years before the Model T. You can already buy electric scooters with the same approximate distance/power consumption specs as the Segway (for 1/5 the price) and it's approximately the same size (maybe smaller). There's tiny hybrid cars from Toyota and Honda (Insight sales stats - the Prius are slightly better) that are selling at or below their production costs, and the Honda has better performance stats than some Kias. Plus, there's a few companies that make custom three wheel EVs, small 4-stroke motorcycles (80cc) with 45 mph top speeds get 85+ mpg, and larger ones (non-sport up to 1.2L) get 45+ mpg. Despite all the traffic in NYC, people don't really care about it as much as they think they do. They may complain about it, or tell their congressman it's the #1 problem with the city, or they may even carpool to work, but the fact is that there's still really bad traffic in NYC because tons of people don't just want to get to work, they want to use their cars to get to work. It *seems* like a no-effort, cost-effective, compact method of transportation somewhere between walking speed and driving speed would have a huge audience, but it just doesn't happen. It's totally inexplicable.
Plus, these things take up more horizontal space than a person, and they can't turn sideways and move (ie squeeze past each other if there's room for only 1.5 of them). I've spent some time walking around in Manhattan, and it's hard enough to dodge people when you can sidestep and turn sideways, let alone if you can't. In a less dense city like Portland, it'd be easier, but the sidewalks are narrower and there's not as much traffic, so there's nothing really forcing the use of these things.
And another thing (raises finger) you have to stand! Whatever the claims or actual distances/lengths of time you can use it, would you really want to stand for an hour getting to where you were going? 12 miles is a long ways away... just think of something 12 miles from your house. Now imagine it taking an hour to get there. Now imagine it taking an hour on the sidewalk. Now imagine it taking an hour, on the sidewalk, standing with very little motion in your legs, like a 1 hour standing bus ride. That foldable electric bike for 1/5 the price is looking a lot nicer now, isn't it?
My prediction for traffic patterns in dense US cities in 2040: gridlock in large diesel/electric hybrid vehicles.
Plus, these things take up more horizontal space than a person, and they can't turn sideways and move (ie squeeze past each other if there's room for only 1.5 of them). I've spent some time walking around in Manhattan, and it's hard enough to dodge people when you can sidestep and turn sideways, let alone if you can't. In a less dense city like Portland, it'd be easier, but the sidewalks are narrower and there's not as much traffic, so there's nothing really forcing the use of these things.
And another thing (raises finger) you have to stand! Whatever the claims or actual distances/lengths of time you can use it, would you really want to stand for an hour getting to where you were going? 12 miles is a long ways away... just think of something 12 miles from your house. Now imagine it taking an hour to get there. Now imagine it taking an hour on the sidewalk. Now imagine it taking an hour, on the sidewalk, standing with very little motion in your legs, like a 1 hour standing bus ride. That foldable electric bike for 1/5 the price is looking a lot nicer now, isn't it?
My prediction for traffic patterns in dense US cities in 2040: gridlock in large diesel/electric hybrid vehicles.
<< I think it will be many many years before these see widespread use in the US, if they ever do. Do you guys have any idea how long alternative methods of transportation have been around? The bike was invented in 1817, the motorcycle was invented by Daimler (of Daimler-Benz) in 1885, and the first production motorbike was put into US production in 1898, 10 years before the Model T. You can already buy electric scooters with the same approximate distance/power consumption specs as the Segway (for 1/5 the price) and it's approximately the same size (maybe smaller). There's tiny hybrid cars from Toyota and Honda (Insight sales stats - the Prius are slightly better) that are selling at or below their production costs, and the Honda has better performance stats than some Kias. Plus, there's a few companies that make custom three wheel EVs, small 4-stroke motorcycles (80cc) with 45 mph top speeds get 85+ mpg, and larger ones (non-sport up to 1.2L) get 45+ mpg. Despite all the traffic in NYC, people don't really care about it as much as they think they do. They may complain about it, or tell their congressman it's the #1 problem with the city, or they may even carpool to work, but the fact is that there's still really bad traffic in NYC because tons of people don't just want to get to work, they want to use their cars to get to work. It *seems* like a no-effort, cost-effective, compact method of transportation somewhere between walking speed and driving speed would have a huge audience, but it just doesn't happen. It's totally inexplicable. >>
However, all of the truly inexpensive machines you list are more dangerous than the Segway. They go faster, require MUCH more skill to operate, and must be licensed and insured in order to be operated. Ostensibly, the Segway has been declared NOT to be a vehicle by the Feds. And the Honda Insight, one of which I own, may be sold well below its production cost, but it still costs an arm and a leg -- especially when you consider its carrying capacity. That particular machine is also not terribly practical for urban travel. The body is aluminum. You can get a major dent in it if someone just leans against it! And try finding a body shop to work on it!!! Don't get me wrong. I love the car. But a practical solution it ain't. I bought it because I dug the engineering.
Remember that Kamen isn't trying to replace the car for all uses, just for truly short trips that don't require a car. Depending upon the supporting infrastructure this could mean anything from the work commute for some people to local errand runs. The vehicle is being targeted for trips that are a little too long for a comfortable (time-wise or effort-wise) walk and a little silly to be undertaken in a two-ton domestic barge.
<< Plus, these things take up more horizontal space than a person, and they can't turn sideways and move (ie squeeze past each other if there's room for only 1.5 of them). I've spent some time walking around in Manhattan, and it's hard enough to dodge people when you can sidestep and turn sideways, let alone if you can't. In a less dense city like Portland, it'd be easier, but the sidewalks are narrower and there's not as much traffic, so there's nothing really forcing the use of these things. >>
It's certainly far more maneuverable than even the tiniest scooter. You're right about the traffic density, which is why I've been saying that this won't happen unless there are changes in infrastructure. Kamen wants to see these things runing down the sidewalk. I certainly don't -- unless there are substantive changes in the construction and size of those sidewalks.
<< And another thing (raises finger) you have to stand! Whatever the claims or actual distances/lengths of time you can use it, would you really want to stand for an hour getting to where you were going? 12 miles is a long ways away... just think of something 12 miles from your house. Now imagine it taking an hour to get there. Now imagine it taking an hour on the sidewalk. Now imagine it taking an hour, on the sidewalk, standing with very little motion in your legs, like a 1 hour standing bus ride. That foldable electric bike for 1/5 the price is looking a lot nicer now, isn't it? >>
No one but a major league enthusiast is ever going to use this particular iteration of the Segway for hour-long trips. Frankly, I think you have to be nuts to drive a car for an hour each way for a job, too. But these little beasties are better-suited for 5-20 minute trips. As far as foldable electric bikes are concerned, people in general aren't going to go for a foldable anything. Only enthusiasts put up with assembly and disassembly periods before and after each trip. And they're still more dangerous than the Segway. (Okay, that's a presumption, but I'll bet that the cracked heads per million passenger miles figure will be far lower for the Segway than for bicycles, and I KNOW that it will be lower than the figure is for scooters and motorcycles. I've been riding motorcycles for all four seasons since 1954.)
I live in a more-or-less typical suburban neighborhood with a grocery store roughly a mile away. If I owned one of these things, and if it really can carry a 250 pound occupant (I'm about 200.) plus 75 pounds of cargo and will have a trailing cargo module that can carry 300 pounds (as advertised), then I'd have to be a sap to take even the Honda Insight to the store (where it's aluminum skin is vulnerable to the twits who give grocery carts a shove in the general direction away from their own cars) in anything but terrible weather. I don't know about you, but my wife and I make a LOT of these sorts of trips every week. It's sad to make them in the Insight. It's ludicrous to make such trips in a Chevy Suburan! (No, I don't own one of those.)
<< My prediction for traffic patterns in dense US cities in 2040: gridlock in large diesel/electric hybrid vehicles. >>
I hope the prediction doesn't come true -- at least the diesel part. Even used very sparingly and with the best pollution controls available, that is a technology that the environment needs to go away. Now fuel cells, that's another matter. If they can keep the local "filling station" from taking the town off the planet when some dude Bogarting a Marlboro comes in for a fresh charge of Hydrogen!
As most of us are indicating here, the success or failure of the Segway to become commonplace is going to depend upon an incredibly complex serious of politico-socio-economic factors.
Hey! You're not a lobbyiest for the auto industry, are you???
- Collin
<< I don't think the individual will need much incentive to use it. We're talking about something that's easy to use and take care of and which would cost considerably less than daily use of public transportaion, and only a tiny fraction of the cost of owning and operating an automobile. I mean, look how many people drive cars into NYC every day. It costs as much to garage a car in NYC for a month as it does to rent an apartment for the same period of time in most parts of the U.S.! When you add fuel, maintenance and insurance the car would be far more expensive to own even if they GAVE it to you! The people who drive cars crosstown or uptown-downtown in the metro area are gonna eat these things up!
But for widespread use of this gadget to occur we'll have to see a confluence of quite a few different social factors. It may all come down to marketing, and just how much fun the things are to use. If they're a whole lot of fun and very reliable, and reasonably safe, people are going to want to use them. If those people who want to use them are numerous enough, and the kind of people who vote, we'll see these little suckers flying around everywhere. Just beware the dark side. The automakers and the oil companies, who have been a dominant force in American politics, will likely be looking for a way to turn the citizenry and the government against the gadget. No blow is too low for these guys. People like me who are old enough to remember what the country was like before the rubber, auto and oil industry lobby pushed Eisenhower into deserting the railroads in favor of the interstate highway system -- well, trust me on this -- big, established industry owns the government. Kamen and his ilk may make an end run around them, but it won't be easy. If he can generate the same sort of interest on the part of the public that the idea of driving that Chevy or Ford across the country on the interstate highway system did in the early fifties... At least this time around we'd be doing something that actually made sense and that was good (relatively) for the environment.
- Collin >>
In NYC I can see where the IT could be really popular, but I question whether it will catch on in other metropolitan areas. Here on the west coast we already see people willing to drive 2 hours+ to get to and from work just to be able to afford a house. In this case I think you could see people driving into the urban core and then, assuming that they need to get around in the downtown area, using the IT for quick jaunts.
As far as the oil companies and car companies go...they wont react until after this thing catches on (assuming that it will). Dont know much about the the whole RR v Freeway issue with Eisenhower since I wasnt even a gleam in my daddy's eye at that point, but I do believe Ike had a dual purpose with the freeway system, ie building 'military' roads for quick deployment of troops.
<< In NYC I can see where the IT could be really popular, but I question whether it will catch on in other metropolitan areas. Here on the west coast we already see people willing to drive 2 hours+ to get to and from work just to be able to afford a house. In this case I think you could see people driving into the urban core and then, assuming that they need to get around in the downtown area, using the IT for quick jaunts. >>
But city housing becomes more affordable if you're not spending 1 to 2 grand a month on transportation. I've made that trade before and wouldn't make the mistake of making it again. I agree, however, that it's just the quick jaunts that will be this thing's forte. At least in its current incarnation. The name is Segway, after all. I've seen some pretty interesting ideas for single axle vehicles that might provide longer range and higher payload capabilities than this one.
<< As far as the oil companies and car companies go...they wont react until after this thing catches on (assuming that it will). Dont know much about the the whole RR v Freeway issue with Eisenhower since I wasnt even a gleam in my daddy's eye at that point, but I do believe Ike had a dual purpose with the freeway system, ie building 'military' roads for quick deployment of troops. >>
We'll see what happens with the lobbyists. Sometimes what looks like a stupid, greedy game turns out to be even more stupid and more greedy than you could have imagined.
It wouldn't surprise me to learn that Eisenhower was thinking exactly such thoughts. But military logistics don't necessarily make for a well-thought-out domestic transportation scheme. And they almost always make for horrific environmental policy. Bechtel was another huge influence in this issue, as they were in the concurrent development of the nuclear power industry. There were a lot of secret handshakes occurring back then -- as there are now. I used to think the public was learning to be more discerning, but now I don't think so. OT as this speculation is, things like this will likely play an important role in the future of Segway.
I don't think that enlightened individuals are going to just line up automatically to buy these things just because they make sense.
- Collin
<< However, all of the truly inexpensive machines you list are more dangerous than the Segway. They go faster, require MUCH more skill to operate, and must be licensed and insured in order to be operated. Ostensibly, the Segway has been declared NOT to be a vehicle by the Feds. And the Honda Insight, one of which I own, may be sold well below its production cost, but it still costs an arm and a leg -- especially when you consider its carrying capacity. That particular machine is also not terribly practical for urban travel. The body is aluminum. You can get a major dent in it if someone just leans against it! And try finding a body shop to work on it!!! Don't get me wrong. I love the car. But a practical solution it ain't. I bought it because I dug the engineering. >>
Not all of the inexpensive devices go faster... the electric scooter goes about the same speed. And you don't *have* to fold it up, but it's an option. But you're right, you don't get the same benefit if you don't fold it. And they do require more skill though, which isn't necessarily a bad thing. Two untrained/unlicensed Segway users in a full-speed head-on collision is equivalent to being tackled by the other person at above the other person's full running speed. The Insight example was shown to indicate that even though they are great pieces of machinery (I considered buying one for a while), and there are government incentives, and the total cost of ownership is lower than most other cars, and they have better performance than some other cars, and they are made by an incredibly successful manufacturer/marketer with a proven reliability record, that there still is next to no demand for them. I thought it would have been perfect for urban travel/commute... light, great gas mileage, small/easy to park.
The thing is that this even though Kamen isn't trying to replace the car for all uses, it's been tried and tried. This is just the first real motorized version to use the sidewalks. The confluence of social/political/infrastructure/whatever factors can and has happened (horses -> cars) but I don't think it'll happen in the US for this.
I hope it my prediction doesn't come true also, but I think with the US desire for performance that's the way we're going. And diesel really does have a lot of potential... compression ratios can be much higher than gasoline, and it has a much higher energy content than ordinary gasoline. It's just a matter of time before a clean combustion process is developed.
<< Hey! You're not a lobbyiest for the auto industry, are you??? >>
As a matter of fact, no
.On the other hand, I think it could be very successful in Europe. The cities are generally denser and less zoned (there are smaller grocery stores in more places, rather than huge centralized shops), living spaces are generally smaller/space is at more of a premium, and people are already used to not using cars to get around. In central Athens, anecdotally I would say probably 40% of all vehicles were motorcycles, and parking was a huge deal. In Amsterdam, obviously, they have tons of bikes and bike lanes and the trolleys. So I think there is more opportunity for use and less resistance.
Also, it'd be awesome if they were standard issue at Universities: "Thanks for enrolling! Here's your room key and your Segway." Widen the paths, put in a "wheels" lane each way and a walking lane... it'd be sweet.
<< On the other hand, I think it could be very successful in Europe. The cities are generally denser and less zoned (there are smaller grocery stores in more places, rather than huge centralized shops), living spaces are generally smaller/space is at more of a premium, and people are already used to not using cars to get around. In central Athens, anecdotally I would say probably 40% of all vehicles were motorcycles, and parking was a huge deal. In Amsterdam, obviously, they have tons of bikes and bike lanes and the trolleys. So I think there is more opportunity for use and less resistance. >>
Yeah, I think they'll sell like hotcakes in Amsterdam, assuming they're affordable. They should really be much easier to store / park than bicycles. Haven't been to Athens, but it sounds like Rome. Lots of two-wheeled traffic there, and in London, come to think of it. London is where I've seen the largest number of electric scooters, but I believe most of them were made in France. (Peugeot?)
<< Also, it'd be awesome if they were standard issue at Universities: "Thanks for enrolling! Here's your room key and your Segway." Widen the paths, put in a "wheels" lane each way and a walking lane... it'd be sweet. >>
Hey, don't leave us oldsters out! I can just see me flying through the mall on one of those puppies!
- Collin
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