Originally posted by: ProfJohn
Originally posted by: Lothar
Originally posted by: techs
I think Ford will lose. I guess I just believe there is still a racist vote that is under-reported in polls.
The "Wilder" effect...
A black candidate needs a 10+% margin in polls to win an election.
Oh get over it already.
This whole Republican's are racist story is old. J.C. Watts was black and was placed into a leadership position. The two most powerful blacks in the history of this country were Powel and Rice and they worked for a Republican President.
I seriously doubt many people are voting by the color of someone?s skin these days.
Do you have PROOF to back up your claims of racist voters?
Where in my post did I say anything about republicans?
You were the one that brought it up.
A lead by Ford to Corker (48 vs 43%) is not comfortable for Ford to win an election.
Is a 48 vs 43% lead comfortable enough for Allen? Yes.
Even if Michael Steele had a "hypothetical" 50 vs 44% lead well outside the margin of error against Ben Cardin in all major polling organizations on the night before election, it's not enough to garantee him winning the Maryland senate election.
As for proof of my previous statement...
VA Gov. candidate Doug Wilder in 1990 was polling 7-8% higher than Marshall Coleman the day before the election, and exit polls by major organizations predicted he won by 55-45 (well outside the 5% margin of error).
He won that election barely by 0.4% of the vote(6,000 votes).
David Dinkins in the 1989 New York mayoral election had a 14-point lead in the polls gave way to an ultimate victory of just 2 points against Rudolph Gulliani.
In the 1990 NC Senate race, Jesse Helms was in a dead heat with Charlotte mayor Harvey Gantt less than a week before election.
He won by 8 points 54-46. Gantt had an 8 point lead in polls 5 days before election.
George Deukmejian won the 1982 California gubernatorial contest, each and every one of the nineteen polls that were conducted put Tom Bradley ahead.
Harold Washington in 1983 was polling 14% higher than Bernard Epton 3 days before election.
He won by less than 4% of the vote.
In all the above elections, the polls misgauged support for a black candidate, predicting that he would attract a substantially greater number of votes than turned out to be the case.
Link
Are voters are lying to pollsters (or hiding out in the "undecided" column) to hide their support for the white candidate?
Voters might be nonracist but concerned about being perceived otherwise, or they might want to hide genuine racism.
That's the only conclusion I can make.