It is possible that Democrats will gain, not lose in November. Here's why/how.

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uclaLabrat

Diamond Member
Aug 2, 2007
5,281
2,263
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538 looks to be trailing the trend here, which is to be expected. There have been real election results that are a better indicator than polls and his modeling shit.
There are versions of the model ("deluxe") that take those other indicators into account. The "light" version basically runs off polls only. So yeah, id expect those trends to start to be reflected in the model soon.
 

K1052

Lifer
Aug 21, 2003
41,180
21,405
136
The Roe vs Wade SCOTUS decision may come back to bite Republicans in the butt. It seems that this has galvanized women to come out and vote Democrat in mass.

Do you guys feel the same?
Dobbs is clearly juicing Dem turnout. Swing voters and even some Republicans are not really jazzed about the GOP's newly resurrected social conservatism, as seen in Kansas. For a big wave the Republicans need lower Dem turnout and to scoop up a lot of the swings. If they get neither of those their House margin could be way smaller than expected or they could possibly fail to capture it depending on how bad things went. Republican house control if their margin is only a few seats would be enormously dysfunctional and likely damage the party heading into 24.
 
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JEDI

Lifer
Sep 25, 2001
28,380
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My impression so far is that Dobbs (and all the resulting conservative insanity) is going to have a rather large political price tag attached to it. One the GOP assumed they'd never have to pay if they flipped SCOTUS enough to do their work instead.
lets see if the repubs underestimated voter apathy and Dem ineffectiveness in capitalizing on Dobbs.

so far i havent seen any commercials attacking Repubs using the dobbs decision but it's still summer.
 

Mai72

Lifer
Sep 12, 2012
11,137
1,469
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Dobbs is clearly juicing Dem turnout. Swing voters and even some Republicans are not really jazzed about the GOP's newly resurrected social conservatism, as seen in Kansas. For a big wave the Republicans need lower Dem turnout and to scoop up a lot of the swings. If they get neither of those their House margin could be way smaller than expected or they could possibly fail to capture it depending on how bad things went. Republican house control if their margin is only a few seats would be enormously dysfunctional and likely damage the party heading into 24.
True. I know personally people who were very upset about the SCOTUS decision, and many were concerned that the Repuclican party is turning towards evangelical Christians.

I live in NJ, so its probably not the same in a southern state like Alabama, or Mississippi.
 

hal2kilo

Lifer
Feb 24, 2009
20,486
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lets see if the repubs underestimated voter apathy and Dem ineffectiveness in capitalizing on Dobbs.

so far i havent seen any commercials attacking Repubs using the dobbs decision but it's still summer.
You haven't seen the ads in my state (Washington). Both Sen. Murray and Rep. Schrier. have this as the major issue in at least one of their ads. Schrier's 8th district has been a Republican district before so the Pubs are dumping all kinds of money into this race. I don't think all the money and tea from China will help her opponent.
 

JEDI

Lifer
Sep 25, 2001
28,380
1,909
126
That’s good because the Dems have 78 to 22% (according to 538) hill to climb to retain control of the house.

I so want to retain the house and pickup two in the senate.
now that WOULD be a political price paid for Dobbs.
but i dont see Dems keeping the House.
the math isnt there.
( i'm assuming the House polls already have the Dobbs decision already baked in)
 
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hal2kilo

Lifer
Feb 24, 2009
20,486
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If the Dems are to lose, I hope it's by 1 vote. McCarthy in charge, it will be a glorious shit show.
 

linkgoron

Platinum Member
Mar 9, 2005
2,084
547
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That’s good because the Dems have 78 to 22% (according to 538) hill to climb to retain control of the house.

I so want to retain the house and pickup two in the senate.
According to Nate Silver, the house model is predicting that the D numbers will regress until November, but that if the current numbers hold until November it'll probably be a toss-up.

 
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JEDI

Lifer
Sep 25, 2001
28,380
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If the Dems are to lose, I hope it's by 1 vote. McCarthy in charge, it will be a glorious shit show.
interesting.. McCarthy needs a majority of Repubs to vote for him to be nominated for Speaker then need a majority of House members to win.


If no House majority in vote, then election process begins over again with Repubs presenting a candidate for speaker then the entire House votes.
Rinse/repeat

Now what happens if there's an eternal cycle of Repubs keeps nominating McCarthy but the majority of House don't elect him?
(ie: several Repubs dont want McCarthy and dont vote in the final vote)

What happens if there's no speaker of the House by the time the next Congress gets seated in Jan 2023?
 

gothuevos

Golden Member
Jul 28, 2010
1,224
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I think there is the very possible scenario of GOP barely taking House control, but Ds maintain and/or expand Senate control.

With current gerrymandering models, wasn't it statically impossible for Dems to keep the house?

Gridlock and drama, regardless. 2024 was always going to be the make or break year, however.
 
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MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
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I think there is the very possible scenario of GOP barely taking House control, but Ds maintain and/or expand Senate control.

With current gerrymandering models, wasn't it statically impossible for Dems to keep the house?

Gridlock and drama, regardless. 2024 was always going to be the make or break year, however.
I hope you have learned that making all these predictions is very hard as you can see now how just a few months before the midterms, just a few things have definitely changed the predictions. Now are things in a bad place? Of course, when you have one of two major political parties willing to lie, cheat and steal and appeal to the worst humans as their primary methods, there is trouble and we MUST BE VERY CAUTIOUS and fight back. But if the 2022 midterms can change, and there is still a lot of time before that might or might not happen, you have no idea what will happen in 2024.
 

Moonbeam

Elite Member
Nov 24, 1999
69,499
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I really wish that all I heard on the news media regarding anything coming out of the Democratic party was all of them talking about the fact that the Republican party is dead and that the party using their name is a fascist organization created by Fox News, the fossil fuel corporations, Zuckerberg, and Russian psychological warfare and that people voting Republican have unknowingly been turned into traitors. Keep it constant and keep it simple. Vote Democratic and save your country. We will be going after the real enemy. Go to www.howyouarebeingused.org to learn more. See www.howtogeteven,org for what you can do. See www.democratsfordownandoutwhitepeople,org on how providing real help to Christian white patriotic Americans just happens to help everybody else and is a feature not a bug. It's what Christians do.
 

dainthomas

Lifer
Dec 7, 2004
14,165
2,760
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Not only is he scooping up the bulk of the GOP fundraising and spending next to nothing on the upcoming election the RNC is still footing his legal bills.
For some reason the R's have adopted the usual Dem strategy of repeatedly shooting yourself in the foot. Unfortunately for them, now the dems are sprinting toward the finish.

Check out the difference between male and female voters in AZ.

Why are guys not voting for Mark Kelly?
 
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soundforbjt

Lifer
Feb 15, 2002
17,097
5,014
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For some reason the R's have adopted the usual Dem strategy of repeatedly shooting yourself in the foot. Unfortunately for them, now the dems are sprinting toward the finish.



Why are guys not voting for Mark Kelly?
Because they’re real men, not a liberal pu****s.

Hopefully it has to do wrt Roe v Wade.
 

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