Israel's New Iron Dome System Minimizes Rocket Threats From Hamas And Iran

[PJABBER]

Let's consider some events taking place right now that are not going to be good news for a peaceful and stable Mid-East -

1. The Obama Administration this week stepped back from the threat to impose economic sanctions as a tool to get Iran to stop the development of nuclear weapons and to dissuade them from supplying advanced weapons, training and direct leadership of military actions against Israel, US. forces in the Mid-East and cooperative nations such as Egypt.

Iran is critically dependent on external supply and an embargo on items such as refined oils and benzene would cripple the country. However, Hillary Clinton said this week, "Our goal is to pressure the Iranian government, particularly the Revolutionary Guards elements, without contributing to the suffering of Iranians."

Threatening Iran's Revolutionary Guards instead of the Iranian regime is going to accomplish absolutely nothing. The IRGC, whose financial operations and its management of Iran's nuclear program subsist on alternative "black market" economic mechanisms is not vulnerable to international sanctions.

Much like ACORN, IRGC commands a global network of thousands of shell companies, which defy investigation. Their funds are not moved through banks but around the illegal channels of international crime and drug cartels in countries outside US scrutiny. The IRGC is therefore not afraid of the fading U.S. threat of sanctions and will continue to provide arms and pursue nuclear weapons.

2. In the past year, Iran has signed mutual defense pacts with Syria and Iranian proxies Hezbollah and Hamas to attack Israel in concert should Israel or the U.S. take military action against Iran's nuclear weapons development facilities. They have transferred tons of arms and provided Niru-ye Qods trainers and likely operational commanders to these proxies to make sure they have the wherewithal to strike effectively.

3. Obama's top counter-terror adviser John Brennan in television interviews Sunday said that "Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula poses a serious threat." He was referring specifically to Yemen, where the Obama Administration is unbelievably considering repatriating 100 Yemenis held at Guantanamo, at which point they are highly likely to go through Yemen's revolving door to re-join Al Qaeda efforts.

4. Yemen is a bloody mess.

Yemen is engaged in three distinct wars - two insurgencies and Al Qaeda.

Yemeni armed forces have been defeated time and again in actions against the Houthi rebels in the North. That position is now further weakened by the pullout of Saudi troops last week.

An even stronger insurgency led by the Southern Engine movement is fighting to separate Southern Yemen from the North and declare independence.

Al Qaeda itself controls parts of four Yemen provinces - Abayan, Baida, Shabwa and Hadramout - covering nearly 200,000 sq. km. That is almost a third of Yemen's total area (530,000 sq. km. - slightly smaller than California.)

The Yemeni government has no resources to fight Al Qaeda, it is barely holding on against the insurgencies. U.S. monetary assistance will line governmental pockets rather than be employed to bolster forces. Though the Yemenis claimed credit for the airstrikes against Al Qaeda last month, in actuality they were U.S. drone strikes and that will be the limit of U.S. force commitment.

5. Egypt's Minister of Intelligence Omar Suleiman and Foreign Minister Ahmad Abul Gheit are expected in Washington today to present a plan to revive Palestinian-Israeli peace talks.

Rotsa ruck, Charlie.

President Obama will likely agree in principle to providing a letter of guarantee, but it is also likely that substantive commitments will be pushed forward another month or two or three because, well, no one trusts anyone to actually adhere to any agreement. Hamas leaders will not go against the wishes of Syrian President Bashar Assad, who is against the initiative. Hamas may have just accepted a Saudi ultimatum to sever ties with Iran and make peace with Fatah for the sake of an eventual Palestinian national unity government, but who knows? It doesn't sound real to me.

6. In actuality, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarek has been mighty upset with the Palestinians lately. Mubarak certainly felt humiliated by Hamas's actions in rejecting recent proposals he made for a Hamas/Fatah reconciliation and return of Israeli hostage Gilad Schalit. The death of a Hamas operative, who just happened to be the brother of Hamas spokesman Sami Abu Zuhri, in an Egyptian prison has inflamed the Hamas leadership against Egypt.

Hence the latest Egyptian wall of steel between Egypt and Gaza. Egypt has started to lay the foundations for the ten kilometer long steel wall aimed at stopping the vast network of illegal commerce through smuggling tunnels from Egypt's Sinai Peninsula into the Gaza Strip.

Mubarek and Suleiman are very worried about the flow of arms coming through Egypt to re-arm Hamas and Hizbollah, seeing as some of those arms remain with the large Palestinian presence in Egypt.

The threat of Al Qaeda exporting its violence into Egyptian cities along the Suez Canal and affecting vital waterway operations is worrying the Egyptians to no end.

7. Al Qaeda is coming to the Gaza Strip, folks. It looks like Pakistani and Saudi Al Qaeda jihadists are moving into the Hamas-ruled Palestinian territory at an increasing rate.

Al Qaeda's Pakistani Baluchistan HQ is working hard to push reinforcements into Yemen and then on to Gaza, so it looks like they anticipate the Gaza Strip will be the battleground following Yemen.

A jihadist cell ambushing an Israeli military patrol on the border of Gaza will likely result in a very large Israeli response and thus be a recruitment tool for Al Qaeda. At the cost of any number of civilian lives, of course.

All those weapons stockpiled by Hamas and Hizbollah? Why they are perfectly safe in the schools, hospitals and mosques that the humanitarian Israelis failed to level the last times they went in. I wonder if Netanyahu will have the same kind of restraint.

The above is some background for what might be playing out now and in the next couple of months.

The Israelis have just announced their Iron Dome rocket defense system has proven effective against any likely inbound rocket attacks by Hamas and, just maybe, direct attacks from Iran. Deployment is scheduled for the south of Israel within the next two months and in the north by mid-2010.

The IDF has formed a new battalion that will be part of the IAF's Air Defense Division and will operate the Iron Dome. Prototypes have been supplied to the new unit, which has already begun training with the systems.

The IDF has also located positions along the Gaza border to be used as bases for the system, which includes a launcher and radar system. After completing the deployment of the system along the Gaza border, the IDF will begin deploying the system along the northern border with Lebanon.

Hamas, of course, may use this very short window to attack Israel while it can.

More importantly, with Iron Dome, Israel may now have a sufficient level of confidence that it can protect its populace from both close and distant retaliatory missile strikes against civilian populations that they expect will come should they strike against Iranian nuclear development sites.

Israeli ground and air forces are expected to readily deal with overland attacks from Gaza, Lebanon, Syria and also take out Yemen based camps.

It may not play out this way, but the positioning of such a complex array of military forces sure does make it seem likely that all sides are anticipating that something will.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article6980098.ece

Israel says tests on Iron Dome missile shield have been a success

Sheera Frenkel in Jerusalem
The Times (UK)
January 8, 2010

Israel has announced the successful testing of its Iron Dome anti-missile system, said to be capable of intercepting rockets launched by militants in Gaza and South Lebanon.

The shield, which fires missiles at incoming threats that it identifies by radar, is being called a “gamechanger” in the way that Israel can conduct its defences.

The system can estimate where a missile will land, targeting those that will hit populated areas while ignoring missiles heading for open ground, military experts said.

Iron Dome would stop missiles with a range of between 4 and 70 kilometres (2.5 and 45 miles), spanning smaller mortar shells from Gaza to the Iranian-made Fajr rockets fired by Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Gaza militants met the announcement with a barrage of at least ten mortar shells, causing no damage but underlining the continued threat to Israel’s southern communities.

In its two most recent wars Israel has faced a barrage of rockets across its borders. Militants in the Gaza Strip have fired home-made Qassam rockets at southern Israel since 2000, most recently during last winter’s Gaza war.

If Israel were to engage in another military operation with its northern or southern enemies, rocket attacks would pose the most serious threat, Israeli defence officials said.

“Terrorists on our borders will see that their most common tool — the launching of rockets against Israel, can be stopped. They will have to find another way, hopefully one that will lead to peaceful negotiations,” said Yossi Horowitz, a developer at Rafael Advanced Defence Systems, the company that helped to build the Iron Dome.

Ephraim Inbar, director of the Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies, said the missile shield would force Israel’s enemies to rethink their strategies. “The system neutralises one of the foundations of the enemy’s strategy, which says that due to the Israeli army’s total superiority the only way to target Israel is by hitting its population centres,” he said.

The Iron Dome will be deployed in the south of Israel within the next two months and in the north by mid-2010. It is part of a three-tier shield intended to stop different levels of incoming missile attacks, along with the “David Slingshot” and Arrow systems. While those two have been developed in co-operation with America, the Iron Dome is solely an Israeli project.

The three-tiered system, the first of its type, aims to shield all Israeli cities from threats ranging from Lebanon, Syria, the Gaza Strip and Iran. Experts said, though, that it cannot guarantee complete effectiveness and that it was prohibitively expensive.

Shlomo Dror, a Defence Ministry spokesman, conceded that there was no 100 per cent protection. “Militants will continue firing rockets and try to launch small attacks against Israel,” he said.

Estimates for the Iron Dome predict that the interception of every rocket will cost tens of thousands of dollars, in contrast to the cheap, home-made Qassams that are used by Gaza militants.

Israel hopes to recoup some of the tens of millions of dollars that Iron Dome will cost by selling the technology to other countries. The US and Britain have each expressed interest, along with other countries fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan.

“Our priority is to get the system working and active in Israel. But there has been a great deal of interest in all countries facing this type of threat,” Mr Horowitz said.

 

[fallout man]

/tin foil yarmulke joke

 

[Dari]

No one knows how successful this will be until when it's put to real-world tests.

 

[eits]

tl.dr.

 

[SamurAchzar]

We'll see how it works. Basically a Phalanx like, projectile based system makes more sense, but it's not really fit for domestic protection because of the damage the explosive projectiles leave in a wide area, and even worse, the possibility of stale ones not exploding when they should and littering the ground.

If this system works well, it marks a big change in the capability of the Palestinians to damage Israel, and significantly reduces strategic threats by Iran/Hizballah/Syria. Maybe the rush to finish the system is caused by an anticipation of an attack in Iran, and the following reaction through its proxy Hizballah, mainly in heavy rocket fire into Israel. Who knows.

 

[SamurAchzar]

/tin foil yarmulke joke

Goes well with the bomb turban

 

[StageLeft]

Good luck but I'm doubtful any anti-missile system is going to be overwhelmingly successful yet.

Anyway it's not surprising to see the world give up on Iran. I think we knew it would. Iran will eventually get its nuke and that's that. Bush's legacy continues to impress. After his axis speech he shot the US' entire load on a country that didn't even have a nuclear program and meanwhile NK gets their nukes and now there is no international or domestic will to try anything against Iran and they'll eventually get their nuke, too.

 

[Zebo]

Nice post with lots of good info. Maybe it's time to buy oil futures if it's going to be a bloody hot summer.

 

[ForumMaster]

in reality, no matter what they say, these type of systems won't be used against the smaller rockets and that hamas know this. this system may be 100% times better then the american patriot missile system concept, but unless it is also a million times cheaper, then it will be economically a way to kill israel. if a katyuasha costs $400 and the rocket to intercept it costs $200,000 (i'm just throwing a number here, no idea...) then hey, let's throw as many as we can just to waste israel's money...

 

[StageLeft]

in reality, no matter what they say, these type of systems won't be used against the smaller rockets and that hamas know this. this system may be 100% times better then the american patriot missile system concept, but unless it is also a million times cheaper, then it will be economically a way to kill israel. if a katyuasha costs $400 and the rocket to intercept it costs $200,000 (i'm just throwing a number here, no idea...) then hey, let's throw as many as we can just to waste israel's money...

That's why they need to do it with lasers, rockets are too pricey!

 

[SamurAchzar]

That's why they need to do it with lasers, rockets are too pricey!

They're talking of tens of thousands of dollars per rockets. The system is quite smart actually, only intercepting threats that are posing a danger to population, and ignoring the rest. It apparently does so automatically, without need for any human intervention.

Israel plans to offset the price of development by exporting the system, that's another point.

 

[RyanPaulShaffer]

I was disappointed to learn that this Iron Dome system was in fact NOT a large iron dome, like Thunderdome.

 

[StageLeft]

They're talking of tens of thousands of dollars per rockets. The system is quite smart actually, only intercepting threats that are posing a danger to population, and ignoring the rest. It apparently does so automatically, without need for any human intervention.

Israel plans to offset the price of development by exporting the system, that's another point.

The Terminator: The Skynet Funding Bill is passed. The system goes on-line August 4th, 1997. Human decisions are removed from strategic defense. Skynet begins to learn at a geometric rate. It becomes self-aware at 2:14 a.m. Eastern time, August 29th. In a panic, they try to pull the plug.
Sarah Connor: Skynet fights back.
The Terminator: Yes. It launches its missiles against the targets in Russia.
John Connor: Why attack Russia? Aren't they our friends now?
The Terminator: Because Skynet knows the Russian counter-attack will eliminate its enemies over here.

---

I was disappointed to learn that this Iron Dome system was in fact NOT a large iron dome, like Thunderdome.

Thunderdome's simple. Get to the weapons, use them any way you can. I know you won't break the rules, because there aren't any.

 

[RyanPaulShaffer]

Thunderdome's simple. Get to the weapons, use them any way you can. I know you won't break the rules, because there aren't any.

Two men enter, one man leaves. Thunderdome!

 

[ebaycj]

Two men enter, one man leaves. Thunderdome!

Who rules Barter Town?

 

[RyanPaulShaffer]

Who rules Barter Town?

Master Blaster!

 

[StageLeft]

Oh, Blaster *cries*

 

[ForumMaster]

They're talking of tens of thousands of dollars per rockets. The system is quite smart actually, only intercepting threats that are posing a danger to population, and ignoring the rest. It apparently does so automatically, without need for any human intervention.

Israel plans to offset the price of development by exporting the system, that's another point.

and i quote wikipedia (say what you want about wiki but still, sound accurate and reasnable to me...)

Criticism

Iron Dome has been criticized for its prohibitive cost. The estimated cost of the Tamir intercept missile is $35,000–$50,000,[5] whereas a crudely manufactured Qassam rocket does not cost more than a few hundred dollars.[7] Rafael has responded that the cost issue is exaggerated since Iron Dome's radar will determine which rockets may hit a populated area and intercept only those rockets that constitute a threat.[8]

Critics have also maintained that Iron Dome is ineffective in countering the Qassam threat given the short-distance and flight time between the heavily targeted southern city of Sderot and the rocket launching pads in the Gaza Strip. Other anti-rocket systems are argued to be more effective, namely the Nautilus laser defense system. From 1995 to 2005, the United States and Israel jointly developed Nautilus but scrapped the system after concluding it was not feasible. However, American defense company Northrop Grumman has proposed to develop a more advanced prototype of Nautilus, Skyguard.[9]

Skyguard would use laser beams to intercept rockets, with the discharging of each beam costing an estimated $1,000–$2,000. With an investment of $180 million, Northrop Grumman claims it could possibly deploy the system within 18 months. Israeli defense officials have rejected the proposal, citing the extended timeline and additional costs. Officials also insist that with recent improvements to Iron Dome, the system is fully capable of intercepting Qassams.[9][10]

 

[Atreus21]

Something I've never understood is why Bush wanted to plant the anti-missile shield, or whatever it was, next to Russia.

I woulda parked it in a perimeter around Israel. I mean, is there a more likely victim?

 

[Lemon law]

I very much agree that if terrorists can launch missiles for a few hundred dollars each, and it causes the iron dome to fire one or more $35,000 dollar rockets, not only is the iron dome economically untenable, it becomes new sacred cow part of Israel that must be defended at all costs.

Then it also strikes me as odd that the iron dome is smart enough to calculate a missiles trajectory and only fire at those that are threats. Which is based on an assumption, now perhaps valid, that present rockets become just dumb and passive after their fuel is depleted. Not when its easily possible to build in a fused explosive body
that could slightly alter course once inside of the iron dome. And for that matter even a small fin could do the same. The guidance systems of such rockets are so rudimentary that its akin to shooting a shotgun, adding a random extra element still changes nothing in the firing a shotgun aspect but it would then transform every rocket into a potential threat to life and property.

 

[SamurAchzar]

I very much agree that if terrorists can launch missiles for a few hundred dollars each, and it causes the iron dome to fire one or more $35,000 dollar rockets, not only is the iron dome economically untenable, it becomes new sacred cow part of Israel that must be defended at all costs.

I'd bet it's much easier for the Israelis to manufacture $35,000 than for the Palestinians to manufacture Qassam rockets. Besides, the real value of this system is against the strategic rockets - Grad, Fajr and other heavy rockets currently in use by Iran, Hizballah and Syria.

Then it also strikes me as odd that the iron dome is smart enough to calculate a missiles trajectory and only fire at those that are threats. Which is based on an assumption, now perhaps valid, that present rockets become just dumb and passive after their fuel is depleted. Not when its easily possible to build in a fused explosive body
that could slightly alter course once inside of the iron dome. And for that matter even a small fin could do the same. The guidance systems of such rockets are so rudimentary that its akin to shooting a shotgun, adding a random extra element still changes nothing in the firing a shotgun aspect but it would then transform every rocket into a potential threat to life and property.

The missiles themselves are not simple rocket types, they are probably ground guided from the target tracking radar. And on top of that, usually missiles of such types have a pretty broad damage area, so even if it misses by few meters, it'll still be effective.

Personally, I'll be very amused if Israel, with this unique system, completely defuses Hizballah and Hamas. That would be just another testament to the fact you CAN win against terrorism.

 

[StageLeft]

I very much agree that if terrorists can launch missiles for a few hundred dollars each, and it causes the iron dome to fire one or more $35,000 dollar rockets, not only is the iron dome economically untenable, it becomes new sacred cow part of Israel that must be defended at all costs.

Then it also strikes me as odd that the iron dome is smart enough to calculate a missiles trajectory and only fire at those that are threats. Which is based on an assumption, now perhaps valid, that present rockets become just dumb and passive after their fuel is depleted. Not when its easily possible to build in a fused explosive body
that could slightly alter course once inside of the iron dome. And for that matter even a small fin could do the same. The guidance systems of such rockets are so rudimentary that its akin to shooting a shotgun, adding a random extra element still changes nothing in the firing a shotgun aspect but it would then transform every rocket into a potential threat to life and property.

None of that funky jazz is going to be built into a $300 rocket, though.

Now, if this can determine which rockets are good, lets say it only aims for 1/4th of them. Then the bad guys spend $1200 and Israel spends $40k, which is a problem, but on the other hand Israel is much richer than a guy making rockets in Gaza anyway. Unless they get really hammered like they did a couple years ago it's probably a pretty negligible cost.

I like that missile system though I'm VERY sure that Northrop is telling porky pies if they think they could deploy a laser-based anti-missile shield in 1.5 years for under $200M. Fat fvcking chance.

Personally, I'll be very amused if Israel, with this unique system, completely defuses Hizballah and Hamas.

It would be nice but missile shields have been underwhelming so far. I am sure at some point they will start to kick butt but so far they haven't.

 

[rudder]

What if Hamas sent up 200 rockets at the same time. Not that these things to much damage anyway as they are unguided. Still a false sense of security in my opinion.

 

[SamurAchzar]

What if Hamas sent up 200 rockets at the same time. Not that these things to much damage anyway as they are unguided. Still a false sense of security in my opinion.

IDF scans everything with UAVs and radars and has very good human intelligence to boot, Hamas would never be able to pull this off without getting their ass handed to them.

 

[ayabe]

Well if it gives Israel one less excuse to shoot civilians or bomb hospitals then I'm all for it.

Of course you all realize that for every $35,000 rocket the US taxpayer is doling out $34,999 to Israel.

But I digress.